RESULTS BEFORE FIRST JOURNAL SUBMISSION (presented at MN Macro Week) -------------------------------------------------------------------- PARAMETERS ---------- Fixed during Estimation gn = (1.01)^(1/4)-1; beta = .98^(1/4); delta = 1-(1-.06)^(1/4); psi = 2.5; sigma = 1.000001; theta = .33; Sbar(3) = .3; Sbar(4) = log(.17); P = zeros(4); Q = zeros(4); D = zeros(4); R = diag(.01*var(Y)); Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),Q(2,2),Q(3,3) estimated MLE parameter estimates for Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),Q(1,1),Q(2,2): Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 5.155e-03 3.329e-04 1.020e-04 2.200e-03 2.432e-01 1.992e-03 3.745e-03 2.790e-02 9.523e-01 9.554e-04 2.406e-03 6.067e-03 1.306e-02 6.129e-04 7.016e-04 1.157e-03 1.361e-02 5.982e-04 7.516e-04 1.409e-03 Log-Likelihood = 328.102 Source of data: BEA and CPS Robustness check: lower measurement error further (R=diag(.001*var(Y))) Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 5.998e-03 3.633e-05 4.092e-05 4.232e-03 2.479e-01 2.004e-04 1.372e-03 3.475e-02 9.510e-01 9.844e-05 7.901e-04 8.979e-03 1.335e-02 6.173e-04 7.088e-04 3.514e-03 1.375e-02 6.107e-04 7.333e-04 2.406e-03 Log-Likelihood = 31960.758 MLE parameter estimates for Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),P(4,4),Q(1,1),Q(2,2),Q(4,4): Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 3.017e-03 4.314e-04 7.795e-05 6.960e-04 2.374e-01 8.227e-03 4.456e-03 1.013e-02 9.213e-01 4.899e-03 5.475e-03 2.868e-02 9.726e-01 3.355e-03 3.906e-03 5.070e-03 9.264e-03 5.536e-04 5.583e-04 7.494e-04 9.447e-03 7.678e-04 5.468e-04 5.517e-04 1.994e-02 1.113e-03 1.185e-03 1.425e-03 Log-Likelihood = -2695.458 MLE parameter estimates for g shock with varying P(4,4) and Q(4,4) and Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),Q(1,1),Q(2,2) constrained to benchmark estimates: Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 9.686e-01 2.439e-03 3.886e-03 6.300e-03 2.057e-02 1.063e-03 1.236e-03 1.509e-03 Log-Likelihood = -2626.119 MLE parameter estimates for taux shock with varying Q(3,3), P(3,3)=.98, and Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),Q(1,1),Q(2,2) constrained to benchmark estimates: Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 1.229e-02 1.456e-03 1.313e-03 2.214e-03 Log-Likelihood = -481.402 MLE parameter estimates for taux shock with varying Q(3,3), P(3,3)=.995, and Sbar(1:2),P(2,2),Q(1,1),Q(2,2) constrained to benchmark estimates: Standard Errors ------------------------------- Parameters dL*dL' d2L bootstrap --------------------------------------------- 1.240e-02 1.471e-03 1.324e-03 1.148e-03 Log-Likelihood = -521.441 _____________________________________________________________________ Figure 1. True Impulse Responses of Hours to Technology Shock Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth2.m Responses to 1% eps 1% TFP shock shock (NOTE: col 2 = col 1 x 1/[100*sigz*(1-theta)] ----------------------- 0 3.8400e-01 4.3885e-01 1 3.6879e-01 4.2146e-01 2 3.5418e-01 4.0476e-01 3 3.4014e-01 3.8873e-01 4 3.2667e-01 3.7333e-01 5 3.1373e-01 3.5854e-01 6 3.0130e-01 3.4433e-01 7 2.8936e-01 3.3069e-01 8 2.7790e-01 3.1759e-01 9 2.6689e-01 3.0501e-01 10 2.5632e-01 2.9293e-01 11 2.4616e-01 2.8132e-01 12 2.3641e-01 2.7018e-01 13 2.2704e-01 2.5947e-01 14 2.1805e-01 2.4919e-01 15 2.0941e-01 2.3932e-01 16 2.0111e-01 2.2984e-01 17 1.9315e-01 2.2073e-01 18 1.8549e-01 2.1199e-01 19 1.7815e-01 2.0359e-01 20 1.7109e-01 1.9552e-01 21 1.6431e-01 1.8778e-01 22 1.5780e-01 1.8034e-01 23 1.5155e-01 1.7319e-01 24 1.4555e-01 1.6633e-01 25 1.3978e-01 1.5974e-01 26 1.3424e-01 1.5342e-01 27 1.2892e-01 1.4734e-01 28 1.2382e-01 1.4150e-01 29 1.1891e-01 1.3589e-01 30 1.1420e-01 1.3051e-01 31 1.0968e-01 1.2534e-01 32 1.0533e-01 1.2037e-01 33 1.0116e-01 1.1561e-01 34 9.7150e-02 1.1103e-01 35 9.3301e-02 1.0663e-01 36 8.9605e-02 1.0240e-01 37 8.6055e-02 9.8346e-02 38 8.2646e-02 9.4450e-02 39 7.9372e-02 9.0708e-02 40 7.6227e-02 8.7115e-02 41 7.3207e-02 8.3664e-02 42 7.0307e-02 8.0349e-02 43 6.7522e-02 7.7166e-02 44 6.4847e-02 7.4109e-02 45 6.2278e-02 7.1173e-02 46 5.9810e-02 6.8353e-02 47 5.7441e-02 6.5645e-02 48 5.5165e-02 6.3045e-02 49 5.2980e-02 6.0547e-02 50 5.0881e-02 5.8148e-02 51 4.8865e-02 5.5845e-02 52 4.6929e-02 5.3632e-02 53 4.5070e-02 5.1507e-02 54 4.3285e-02 4.9467e-02 55 4.1570e-02 4.7507e-02 56 3.9923e-02 4.5625e-02 57 3.8341e-02 4.3818e-02 58 3.6822e-02 4.2082e-02 59 3.5364e-02 4.0415e-02 60 3.3963e-02 3.8813e-02 61 3.2617e-02 3.7276e-02 62 3.1325e-02 3.5799e-02 63 3.0084e-02 3.4381e-02 64 2.8892e-02 3.3019e-02 65 2.7747e-02 3.1711e-02 66 2.6648e-02 3.0454e-02 67 2.5592e-02 2.9248e-02 68 2.4579e-02 2.8089e-02 69 2.3605e-02 2.6976e-02 70 2.2670e-02 2.5908e-02 71 2.1772e-02 2.4881e-02 72 2.0909e-02 2.3895e-02 73 2.0081e-02 2.2949e-02 74 1.9285e-02 2.2040e-02 75 1.8521e-02 2.1167e-02 76 1.7787e-02 2.0328e-02 77 1.7083e-02 1.9523e-02 78 1.6406e-02 1.8749e-02 79 1.5756e-02 1.8006e-02 80 1.5132e-02 1.7293e-02 81 1.4532e-02 1.6608e-02 82 1.3957e-02 1.5950e-02 83 1.3404e-02 1.5318e-02 84 1.2873e-02 1.4711e-02 85 1.2363e-02 1.4128e-02 86 1.1873e-02 1.3569e-02 87 1.1403e-02 1.3031e-02 88 1.0951e-02 1.2515e-02 89 1.0517e-02 1.2019e-02 90 1.0100e-02 1.1543e-02 91 9.7002e-03 1.1086e-02 92 9.3159e-03 1.0646e-02 93 8.9468e-03 1.0225e-02 94 8.5924e-03 9.8196e-03 95 8.2520e-03 9.4306e-03 96 7.9251e-03 9.0570e-03 97 7.6111e-03 8.6982e-03 98 7.3096e-03 8.3536e-03 99 7.0200e-03 8.0226e-03 100 6.7419e-03 7.7048e-03 Figure 2. Impulse Responses Using DSVAR and LSVAR Procedure with Four Lags (p=4) applied to data from model in limit Codes: run codes for figure 1 and ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4, alpha=0 and 1 1% eps shock 1% TFP shock --------------------- --------------------- DSVAR LSVAR DSVAR LSVAR ----- ----- ----- ----- 0 -6.0720e-01 1.0636e+00 -6.9392e-01 1.2155e+00 1 -6.1281e-01 1.0074e+00 -7.0034e-01 1.1513e+00 2 -6.2084e-01 9.5441e-01 -7.0952e-01 1.0907e+00 3 -6.3129e-01 9.0430e-01 -7.2146e-01 1.0335e+00 4 -6.4417e-01 8.4804e-01 -7.3617e-01 9.6917e-01 5 -6.4481e-01 7.9280e-01 -7.3691e-01 9.0603e-01 6 -6.4532e-01 7.4096e-01 -7.3749e-01 8.4680e-01 7 -6.4567e-01 6.9233e-01 -7.3790e-01 7.9122e-01 8 -6.4588e-01 6.4680e-01 -7.3813e-01 7.3918e-01 9 -6.4591e-01 6.0424e-01 -7.3816e-01 6.9055e-01 10 -6.4593e-01 5.6448e-01 -7.3818e-01 6.4511e-01 11 -6.4594e-01 5.2733e-01 -7.3820e-01 6.0265e-01 12 -6.4594e-01 4.9263e-01 -7.3820e-01 5.6299e-01 13 -6.4594e-01 4.6021e-01 -7.3820e-01 5.2594e-01 14 -6.4594e-01 4.2992e-01 -7.3820e-01 4.9132e-01 15 -6.4594e-01 4.0162e-01 -7.3820e-01 4.5899e-01 16 -6.4594e-01 3.7519e-01 -7.3821e-01 4.2878e-01 17 -6.4594e-01 3.5050e-01 -7.3821e-01 4.0056e-01 18 -6.4594e-01 3.2743e-01 -7.3821e-01 3.7420e-01 19 -6.4594e-01 3.0588e-01 -7.3821e-01 3.4957e-01 20 -6.4594e-01 2.8575e-01 -7.3821e-01 3.2657e-01 21 -6.4594e-01 2.6695e-01 -7.3821e-01 3.0507e-01 22 -6.4594e-01 2.4938e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.8500e-01 23 -6.4594e-01 2.3297e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.6624e-01 24 -6.4594e-01 2.1763e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.4872e-01 25 -6.4594e-01 2.0331e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.3235e-01 26 -6.4594e-01 1.8993e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.1706e-01 27 -6.4594e-01 1.7743e-01 -7.3821e-01 2.0277e-01 28 -6.4594e-01 1.6575e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.8943e-01 29 -6.4594e-01 1.5484e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.7696e-01 30 -6.4594e-01 1.4465e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.6531e-01 31 -6.4594e-01 1.3513e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.5443e-01 32 -6.4594e-01 1.2624e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.4427e-01 33 -6.4594e-01 1.1793e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.3478e-01 34 -6.4594e-01 1.1017e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.2591e-01 35 -6.4594e-01 1.0292e-01 -7.3821e-01 1.1762e-01 36 -6.4594e-01 9.6146e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.0988e-01 37 -6.4594e-01 8.9818e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.0265e-01 38 -6.4594e-01 8.3907e-02 -7.3821e-01 9.5892e-02 39 -6.4594e-01 7.8385e-02 -7.3821e-01 8.9581e-02 40 -6.4594e-01 7.3226e-02 -7.3821e-01 8.3685e-02 41 -6.4594e-01 6.8407e-02 -7.3821e-01 7.8178e-02 42 -6.4594e-01 6.3905e-02 -7.3821e-01 7.3033e-02 43 -6.4594e-01 5.9699e-02 -7.3821e-01 6.8226e-02 44 -6.4594e-01 5.5770e-02 -7.3821e-01 6.3736e-02 45 -6.4594e-01 5.2100e-02 -7.3821e-01 5.9541e-02 46 -6.4594e-01 4.8671e-02 -7.3821e-01 5.5623e-02 47 -6.4594e-01 4.5468e-02 -7.3821e-01 5.1962e-02 48 -6.4594e-01 4.2475e-02 -7.3821e-01 4.8542e-02 49 -6.4594e-01 3.9680e-02 -7.3821e-01 4.5348e-02 50 -6.4594e-01 3.7069e-02 -7.3821e-01 4.2363e-02 51 -6.4594e-01 3.4629e-02 -7.3821e-01 3.9575e-02 52 -6.4594e-01 3.2350e-02 -7.3821e-01 3.6970e-02 53 -6.4594e-01 3.0221e-02 -7.3821e-01 3.4537e-02 54 -6.4594e-01 2.8232e-02 -7.3821e-01 3.2264e-02 55 -6.4594e-01 2.6374e-02 -7.3821e-01 3.0141e-02 56 -6.4594e-01 2.4638e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.8157e-02 57 -6.4594e-01 2.3017e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.6304e-02 58 -6.4594e-01 2.1502e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.4573e-02 59 -6.4594e-01 2.0087e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.2956e-02 60 -6.4594e-01 1.8765e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.1445e-02 61 -6.4594e-01 1.7530e-02 -7.3821e-01 2.0034e-02 62 -6.4594e-01 1.6376e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.8715e-02 63 -6.4594e-01 1.5298e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.7483e-02 64 -6.4594e-01 1.4292e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.6333e-02 65 -6.4594e-01 1.3351e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.5258e-02 66 -6.4594e-01 1.2472e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.4254e-02 67 -6.4594e-01 1.1651e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.3316e-02 68 -6.4594e-01 1.0885e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.2439e-02 69 -6.4594e-01 1.0168e-02 -7.3821e-01 1.1621e-02 70 -6.4594e-01 9.4991e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.0856e-02 71 -6.4594e-01 8.8739e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.0141e-02 72 -6.4594e-01 8.2899e-03 -7.3821e-01 9.4740e-03 73 -6.4594e-01 7.7443e-03 -7.3821e-01 8.8505e-03 74 -6.4594e-01 7.2347e-03 -7.3821e-01 8.2680e-03 75 -6.4594e-01 6.7585e-03 -7.3821e-01 7.7239e-03 76 -6.4594e-01 6.3137e-03 -7.3821e-01 7.2155e-03 77 -6.4594e-01 5.8982e-03 -7.3821e-01 6.7406e-03 78 -6.4594e-01 5.5100e-03 -7.3821e-01 6.2970e-03 79 -6.4594e-01 5.1474e-03 -7.3821e-01 5.8826e-03 80 -6.4594e-01 4.8086e-03 -7.3821e-01 5.4954e-03 81 -6.4594e-01 4.4922e-03 -7.3821e-01 5.1338e-03 82 -6.4594e-01 4.1965e-03 -7.3821e-01 4.7959e-03 83 -6.4594e-01 3.9203e-03 -7.3821e-01 4.4803e-03 84 -6.4594e-01 3.6623e-03 -7.3821e-01 4.1854e-03 85 -6.4594e-01 3.4213e-03 -7.3821e-01 3.9100e-03 86 -6.4594e-01 3.1961e-03 -7.3821e-01 3.6526e-03 87 -6.4594e-01 2.9858e-03 -7.3821e-01 3.4122e-03 88 -6.4594e-01 2.7893e-03 -7.3821e-01 3.1877e-03 89 -6.4594e-01 2.6057e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.9779e-03 90 -6.4594e-01 2.4342e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.7819e-03 91 -6.4594e-01 2.2740e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.5988e-03 92 -6.4594e-01 2.1244e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.4278e-03 93 -6.4594e-01 1.9845e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.2680e-03 94 -6.4594e-01 1.8539e-03 -7.3821e-01 2.1187e-03 95 -6.4594e-01 1.7319e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.9793e-03 96 -6.4594e-01 1.6179e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.8490e-03 97 -6.4594e-01 1.5115e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.7273e-03 98 -6.4594e-01 1.4120e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.6137e-03 99 -6.4594e-01 1.3191e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.5075e-03 100 -6.4594e-01 1.2322e-03 -7.3821e-01 1.4083e-03 Figure 3. Impulse Responses Using QDSVAR(.99) Procedure with Various Lags applied to data from model (population moments) Codes: run codes for figure 1 and ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with vector of lags, alpha=.99 Responses to 1% eps with p=4,10,20,30,40,50,100,200,300,400,500 --------------------------------------------------------------- 0 -5.58e-01 -1.31e-01 2.78e-01 4.77e-01 5.71e-01 6.11e-01 5.75e-01 4.50e-01 4.07e-01 3.92e-01 3.87e-01 1 -5.57e-01 -1.37e-01 2.62e-01 4.53e-01 5.44e-01 5.83e-01 5.48e-01 4.30e-01 3.90e-01 3.76e-01 3.71e-01 2 -5.58e-01 -1.45e-01 2.45e-01 4.31e-01 5.18e-01 5.56e-01 5.23e-01 4.12e-01 3.74e-01 3.61e-01 3.57e-01 3 -5.62e-01 -1.53e-01 2.28e-01 4.09e-01 4.94e-01 5.30e-01 4.99e-01 3.94e-01 3.59e-01 3.47e-01 3.43e-01 4 -5.69e-01 -1.63e-01 2.12e-01 3.88e-01 4.70e-01 5.05e-01 4.76e-01 3.77e-01 3.44e-01 3.33e-01 3.29e-01 5 -5.64e-01 -1.74e-01 1.96e-01 3.68e-01 4.47e-01 4.81e-01 4.54e-01 3.61e-01 3.30e-01 3.20e-01 3.16e-01 6 -5.59e-01 -1.85e-01 1.80e-01 3.49e-01 4.26e-01 4.59e-01 4.34e-01 3.46e-01 3.17e-01 3.07e-01 3.03e-01 7 -5.54e-01 -1.98e-01 1.64e-01 3.30e-01 4.05e-01 4.37e-01 4.14e-01 3.31e-01 3.04e-01 2.94e-01 2.91e-01 8 -5.48e-01 -2.12e-01 1.49e-01 3.11e-01 3.85e-01 4.16e-01 3.95e-01 3.17e-01 2.91e-01 2.83e-01 2.80e-01 9 -5.43e-01 -2.27e-01 1.33e-01 2.94e-01 3.66e-01 3.97e-01 3.77e-01 3.03e-01 2.79e-01 2.71e-01 2.68e-01 10 -5.38e-01 -2.43e-01 1.17e-01 2.77e-01 3.48e-01 3.78e-01 3.60e-01 2.91e-01 2.68e-01 2.60e-01 2.58e-01 11 -5.32e-01 -2.40e-01 1.02e-01 2.60e-01 3.31e-01 3.60e-01 3.43e-01 2.78e-01 2.57e-01 2.50e-01 2.48e-01 12 -5.27e-01 -2.37e-01 8.59e-02 2.44e-01 3.14e-01 3.43e-01 3.28e-01 2.66e-01 2.47e-01 2.40e-01 2.38e-01 13 -5.22e-01 -2.34e-01 7.01e-02 2.28e-01 2.97e-01 3.26e-01 3.13e-01 2.55e-01 2.36e-01 2.30e-01 2.28e-01 14 -5.16e-01 -2.32e-01 5.43e-02 2.12e-01 2.82e-01 3.11e-01 2.99e-01 2.44e-01 2.27e-01 2.21e-01 2.19e-01 15 -5.11e-01 -2.30e-01 3.84e-02 1.97e-01 2.67e-01 2.95e-01 2.85e-01 2.34e-01 2.18e-01 2.12e-01 2.10e-01 16 -5.06e-01 -2.28e-01 2.24e-02 1.83e-01 2.52e-01 2.81e-01 2.72e-01 2.24e-01 2.09e-01 2.04e-01 2.02e-01 17 -5.01e-01 -2.26e-01 6.19e-03 1.68e-01 2.38e-01 2.67e-01 2.60e-01 2.14e-01 2.00e-01 1.96e-01 1.94e-01 18 -4.96e-01 -2.24e-01 -1.02e-02 1.54e-01 2.25e-01 2.54e-01 2.48e-01 2.05e-01 1.92e-01 1.88e-01 1.86e-01 19 -4.91e-01 -2.22e-01 -2.68e-02 1.40e-01 2.11e-01 2.41e-01 2.37e-01 1.97e-01 1.84e-01 1.80e-01 1.79e-01 20 -4.86e-01 -2.20e-01 -4.36e-02 1.26e-01 1.99e-01 2.29e-01 2.27e-01 1.88e-01 1.77e-01 1.73e-01 1.72e-01 21 -4.81e-01 -2.18e-01 -3.85e-02 1.13e-01 1.86e-01 2.17e-01 2.17e-01 1.80e-01 1.70e-01 1.66e-01 1.65e-01 22 -4.76e-01 -2.16e-01 -3.40e-02 9.92e-02 1.74e-01 2.06e-01 2.07e-01 1.73e-01 1.63e-01 1.60e-01 1.58e-01 23 -4.72e-01 -2.13e-01 -3.01e-02 8.59e-02 1.63e-01 1.95e-01 1.98e-01 1.65e-01 1.56e-01 1.53e-01 1.52e-01 24 -4.67e-01 -2.11e-01 -2.67e-02 7.27e-02 1.51e-01 1.84e-01 1.89e-01 1.58e-01 1.50e-01 1.47e-01 1.46e-01 25 -4.62e-01 -2.09e-01 -2.39e-02 5.95e-02 1.40e-01 1.74e-01 1.81e-01 1.52e-01 1.44e-01 1.41e-01 1.40e-01 26 -4.58e-01 -2.07e-01 -2.15e-02 4.64e-02 1.29e-01 1.64e-01 1.73e-01 1.45e-01 1.38e-01 1.35e-01 1.35e-01 27 -4.53e-01 -2.05e-01 -1.96e-02 3.33e-02 1.18e-01 1.55e-01 1.65e-01 1.39e-01 1.32e-01 1.30e-01 1.29e-01 28 -4.49e-01 -2.03e-01 -1.80e-02 2.02e-02 1.08e-01 1.46e-01 1.58e-01 1.33e-01 1.27e-01 1.25e-01 1.24e-01 29 -4.44e-01 -2.01e-01 -1.68e-02 7.01e-03 9.77e-02 1.37e-01 1.51e-01 1.28e-01 1.22e-01 1.20e-01 1.19e-01 30 -4.40e-01 -1.99e-01 -1.59e-02 -6.20e-03 8.76e-02 1.28e-01 1.45e-01 1.22e-01 1.17e-01 1.15e-01 1.15e-01 31 -4.35e-01 -1.97e-01 -1.53e-02 1.79e-03 7.75e-02 1.19e-01 1.38e-01 1.17e-01 1.12e-01 1.10e-01 1.10e-01 32 -4.31e-01 -1.95e-01 -1.49e-02 8.85e-03 6.76e-02 1.11e-01 1.32e-01 1.12e-01 1.07e-01 1.06e-01 1.06e-01 33 -4.27e-01 -1.93e-01 -1.47e-02 1.51e-02 5.78e-02 1.03e-01 1.27e-01 1.08e-01 1.03e-01 1.02e-01 1.01e-01 34 -4.22e-01 -1.91e-01 -1.47e-02 2.05e-02 4.81e-02 9.53e-02 1.21e-01 1.03e-01 9.89e-02 9.78e-02 9.74e-02 35 -4.18e-01 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7.84e-02 6.76e-02 6.54e-02 6.50e-02 6.49e-02 45 -3.78e-01 -1.71e-01 -1.73e-02 4.38e-02 2.85e-02 1.53e-02 7.51e-02 6.48e-02 6.28e-02 6.24e-02 6.23e-02 46 -3.74e-01 -1.70e-01 -1.73e-02 4.37e-02 3.37e-02 8.24e-03 7.19e-02 6.22e-02 6.03e-02 5.99e-02 5.99e-02 47 -3.71e-01 -1.68e-01 -1.72e-02 4.35e-02 3.83e-02 1.14e-03 6.88e-02 5.96e-02 5.78e-02 5.76e-02 5.75e-02 48 -3.67e-01 -1.66e-01 -1.71e-02 4.30e-02 4.22e-02 -6.00e-03 6.59e-02 5.72e-02 5.55e-02 5.53e-02 5.52e-02 49 -3.63e-01 -1.65e-01 -1.70e-02 4.24e-02 4.55e-02 -1.32e-02 6.31e-02 5.49e-02 5.33e-02 5.31e-02 5.30e-02 50 -3.60e-01 -1.63e-01 -1.68e-02 4.17e-02 4.83e-02 -2.05e-02 6.04e-02 5.26e-02 5.11e-02 5.09e-02 5.09e-02 51 -3.56e-01 -1.61e-01 -1.66e-02 4.08e-02 5.06e-02 -1.03e-02 5.78e-02 5.05e-02 4.91e-02 4.89e-02 4.89e-02 52 -3.52e-01 -1.60e-01 -1.65e-02 3.99e-02 5.25e-02 -1.07e-03 5.53e-02 4.85e-02 4.71e-02 4.70e-02 4.69e-02 53 -3.49e-01 -1.58e-01 -1.63e-02 3.88e-02 5.40e-02 7.15e-03 5.29e-02 4.65e-02 4.52e-02 4.51e-02 4.51e-02 54 -3.45e-01 -1.57e-01 -1.61e-02 3.78e-02 5.52e-02 1.45e-02 5.05e-02 4.46e-02 4.34e-02 4.33e-02 4.33e-02 55 -3.42e-01 -1.55e-01 -1.59e-02 3.66e-02 5.60e-02 2.10e-02 4.83e-02 4.29e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 56 -3.39e-01 -1.53e-01 -1.57e-02 3.55e-02 5.65e-02 2.67e-02 4.61e-02 4.11e-02 4.00e-02 3.99e-02 3.99e-02 57 -3.35e-01 -1.52e-01 -1.55e-02 3.43e-02 5.67e-02 3.18e-02 4.40e-02 3.95e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 58 -3.32e-01 -1.50e-01 -1.53e-02 3.32e-02 5.67e-02 3.62e-02 4.20e-02 3.79e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 59 -3.28e-01 -1.49e-01 -1.52e-02 3.21e-02 5.65e-02 4.00e-02 4.00e-02 3.64e-02 3.53e-02 3.53e-02 3.54e-02 60 -3.25e-01 -1.47e-01 -1.50e-02 3.10e-02 5.62e-02 4.33e-02 3.81e-02 3.50e-02 3.39e-02 3.39e-02 3.40e-02 61 -3.22e-01 -1.46e-01 -1.49e-02 2.99e-02 5.56e-02 4.61e-02 3.63e-02 3.36e-02 3.26e-02 3.26e-02 3.26e-02 62 -3.19e-01 -1.44e-01 -1.47e-02 2.90e-02 5.49e-02 4.85e-02 3.45e-02 3.23e-02 3.13e-02 3.13e-02 3.13e-02 63 -3.16e-01 -1.43e-01 -1.46e-02 2.83e-02 5.41e-02 5.04e-02 3.27e-02 3.10e-02 3.00e-02 3.00e-02 3.01e-02 64 -3.12e-01 -1.42e-01 -1.44e-02 2.77e-02 5.32e-02 5.20e-02 3.09e-02 2.98e-02 2.88e-02 2.88e-02 2.89e-02 65 -3.09e-01 -1.40e-01 -1.43e-02 2.72e-02 5.21e-02 5.32e-02 2.93e-02 2.87e-02 2.76e-02 2.77e-02 2.77e-02 66 -3.06e-01 -1.39e-01 -1.42e-02 2.68e-02 5.10e-02 5.42e-02 2.76e-02 2.76e-02 2.65e-02 2.66e-02 2.66e-02 67 -3.03e-01 -1.37e-01 -1.40e-02 2.64e-02 4.99e-02 5.48e-02 2.59e-02 2.65e-02 2.55e-02 2.55e-02 2.56e-02 68 -3.00e-01 -1.36e-01 -1.39e-02 2.61e-02 4.87e-02 5.52e-02 2.43e-02 2.55e-02 2.45e-02 2.45e-02 2.46e-02 69 -2.97e-01 -1.35e-01 -1.38e-02 2.59e-02 4.74e-02 5.54e-02 2.27e-02 2.45e-02 2.35e-02 2.35e-02 2.36e-02 70 -2.94e-01 -1.33e-01 -1.36e-02 2.57e-02 4.61e-02 5.54e-02 2.12e-02 2.36e-02 2.26e-02 2.26e-02 2.26e-02 71 -2.91e-01 -1.32e-01 -1.35e-02 2.55e-02 4.48e-02 5.52e-02 1.96e-02 2.27e-02 2.17e-02 2.17e-02 2.18e-02 72 -2.88e-01 -1.31e-01 -1.34e-02 2.53e-02 4.35e-02 5.48e-02 1.80e-02 2.18e-02 2.08e-02 2.08e-02 2.09e-02 73 -2.85e-01 -1.29e-01 -1.33e-02 2.52e-02 4.22e-02 5.43e-02 1.65e-02 2.10e-02 2.00e-02 2.00e-02 2.01e-02 74 -2.83e-01 -1.28e-01 -1.31e-02 2.50e-02 4.09e-02 5.36e-02 1.50e-02 2.03e-02 1.92e-02 1.92e-02 1.93e-02 75 -2.80e-01 -1.27e-01 -1.30e-02 2.49e-02 3.96e-02 5.29e-02 1.34e-02 1.95e-02 1.84e-02 1.84e-02 1.85e-02 76 -2.77e-01 -1.25e-01 -1.29e-02 2.48e-02 3.84e-02 5.20e-02 1.19e-02 1.88e-02 1.77e-02 1.77e-02 1.78e-02 77 -2.74e-01 -1.24e-01 -1.27e-02 2.46e-02 3.72e-02 5.11e-02 1.03e-02 1.81e-02 1.70e-02 1.70e-02 1.71e-02 78 -2.71e-01 -1.23e-01 -1.26e-02 2.45e-02 3.60e-02 5.01e-02 8.75e-03 1.75e-02 1.63e-02 1.63e-02 1.64e-02 79 -2.69e-01 -1.22e-01 -1.25e-02 2.43e-02 3.49e-02 4.91e-02 7.18e-03 1.68e-02 1.57e-02 1.57e-02 1.57e-02 80 -2.66e-01 -1.21e-01 -1.24e-02 2.42e-02 3.38e-02 4.79e-02 5.59e-03 1.62e-02 1.51e-02 1.51e-02 1.51e-02 81 -2.63e-01 -1.19e-01 -1.22e-02 2.40e-02 3.28e-02 4.68e-02 3.98e-03 1.57e-02 1.45e-02 1.45e-02 1.45e-02 82 -2.61e-01 -1.18e-01 -1.21e-02 2.38e-02 3.19e-02 4.56e-02 2.35e-03 1.51e-02 1.39e-02 1.39e-02 1.39e-02 83 -2.58e-01 -1.17e-01 -1.20e-02 2.36e-02 3.12e-02 4.44e-02 6.88e-04 1.46e-02 1.34e-02 1.33e-02 1.34e-02 84 -2.56e-01 -1.16e-01 -1.19e-02 2.35e-02 3.06e-02 4.32e-02 -9.99e-04 1.41e-02 1.28e-02 1.28e-02 1.29e-02 85 -2.53e-01 -1.15e-01 -1.17e-02 2.32e-02 3.02e-02 4.20e-02 -2.72e-03 1.36e-02 1.23e-02 1.23e-02 1.23e-02 86 -2.50e-01 -1.13e-01 -1.16e-02 2.30e-02 2.98e-02 4.07e-02 -4.47e-03 1.31e-02 1.18e-02 1.18e-02 1.19e-02 87 -2.48e-01 -1.12e-01 -1.15e-02 2.28e-02 2.95e-02 3.95e-02 -6.26e-03 1.27e-02 1.14e-02 1.13e-02 1.14e-02 88 -2.45e-01 -1.11e-01 -1.14e-02 2.26e-02 2.93e-02 3.83e-02 -8.10e-03 1.23e-02 1.09e-02 1.09e-02 1.09e-02 89 -2.43e-01 -1.10e-01 -1.13e-02 2.24e-02 2.91e-02 3.71e-02 -9.98e-03 1.19e-02 1.05e-02 1.05e-02 1.05e-02 90 -2.41e-01 -1.09e-01 -1.12e-02 2.21e-02 2.89e-02 3.59e-02 -1.19e-02 1.15e-02 1.01e-02 1.00e-02 1.01e-02 91 -2.38e-01 -1.08e-01 -1.11e-02 2.19e-02 2.88e-02 3.47e-02 -1.39e-02 1.11e-02 9.71e-03 9.65e-03 9.69e-03 92 -2.36e-01 -1.07e-01 -1.10e-02 2.16e-02 2.87e-02 3.36e-02 -1.59e-02 1.08e-02 9.34e-03 9.27e-03 9.30e-03 93 -2.33e-01 -1.06e-01 -1.08e-02 2.14e-02 2.86e-02 3.25e-02 -1.80e-02 1.04e-02 8.98e-03 8.90e-03 8.93e-03 94 -2.31e-01 -1.05e-01 -1.07e-02 2.12e-02 2.85e-02 3.14e-02 -2.02e-02 1.01e-02 8.63e-03 8.55e-03 8.58e-03 95 -2.29e-01 -1.04e-01 -1.06e-02 2.09e-02 2.85e-02 3.03e-02 -2.24e-02 9.78e-03 8.30e-03 8.21e-03 8.24e-03 96 -2.26e-01 -1.03e-01 -1.05e-02 2.07e-02 2.84e-02 2.93e-02 -2.47e-02 9.48e-03 7.99e-03 7.89e-03 7.92e-03 97 -2.24e-01 -1.02e-01 -1.04e-02 2.04e-02 2.83e-02 2.84e-02 -2.71e-02 9.19e-03 7.68e-03 7.58e-03 7.60e-03 98 -2.22e-01 -1.01e-01 -1.03e-02 2.02e-02 2.82e-02 2.74e-02 -2.95e-02 8.92e-03 7.39e-03 7.28e-03 7.30e-03 99 -2.20e-01 -9.96e-02 -1.02e-02 2.00e-02 2.81e-02 2.66e-02 -3.21e-02 8.65e-03 7.11e-03 6.99e-03 7.01e-03 100 -2.18e-01 -9.86e-02 -1.01e-02 1.98e-02 2.80e-02 2.57e-02 -3.47e-02 8.40e-03 6.84e-03 6.71e-03 6.73e-03 Responses to 1% TFP with p=4,10,20,30,40,50,100,200,300,400,500 --------------------------------------------------------------- 0 -6.37e-01 -1.49e-01 3.18e-01 5.45e-01 6.52e-01 6.99e-01 6.57e-01 5.14e-01 4.65e-01 4.48e-01 4.42e-01 1 -6.36e-01 -1.57e-01 2.99e-01 5.18e-01 6.22e-01 6.66e-01 6.27e-01 4.92e-01 4.46e-01 4.30e-01 4.25e-01 2 -6.38e-01 -1.65e-01 2.80e-01 4.92e-01 5.92e-01 6.35e-01 5.98e-01 4.71e-01 4.27e-01 4.13e-01 4.08e-01 3 -6.43e-01 -1.75e-01 2.61e-01 4.68e-01 5.64e-01 6.05e-01 5.70e-01 4.51e-01 4.10e-01 3.96e-01 3.91e-01 4 -6.50e-01 -1.86e-01 2.43e-01 4.44e-01 5.37e-01 5.77e-01 5.44e-01 4.31e-01 3.93e-01 3.80e-01 3.76e-01 5 -6.44e-01 -1.98e-01 2.24e-01 4.21e-01 5.11e-01 5.50e-01 5.19e-01 4.13e-01 3.77e-01 3.65e-01 3.61e-01 6 -6.39e-01 -2.12e-01 2.06e-01 3.98e-01 4.87e-01 5.24e-01 4.95e-01 3.95e-01 3.62e-01 3.51e-01 3.47e-01 7 -6.33e-01 -2.26e-01 1.88e-01 3.77e-01 4.63e-01 4.99e-01 4.73e-01 3.78e-01 3.47e-01 3.36e-01 3.33e-01 8 -6.27e-01 -2.42e-01 1.70e-01 3.56e-01 4.40e-01 4.76e-01 4.51e-01 3.62e-01 3.33e-01 3.23e-01 3.20e-01 9 -6.20e-01 -2.59e-01 1.52e-01 3.36e-01 4.19e-01 4.53e-01 4.31e-01 3.47e-01 3.19e-01 3.10e-01 3.07e-01 10 -6.14e-01 -2.78e-01 1.34e-01 3.16e-01 3.98e-01 4.32e-01 4.11e-01 3.32e-01 3.06e-01 2.98e-01 2.95e-01 11 -6.08e-01 -2.74e-01 1.16e-01 2.97e-01 3.78e-01 4.11e-01 3.92e-01 3.18e-01 2.94e-01 2.86e-01 2.83e-01 12 -6.02e-01 -2.71e-01 9.81e-02 2.78e-01 3.58e-01 3.92e-01 3.75e-01 3.04e-01 2.82e-01 2.74e-01 2.72e-01 13 -5.96e-01 -2.68e-01 8.02e-02 2.60e-01 3.40e-01 3.73e-01 3.58e-01 2.91e-01 2.70e-01 2.63e-01 2.61e-01 14 -5.90e-01 -2.65e-01 6.21e-02 2.43e-01 3.22e-01 3.55e-01 3.41e-01 2.79e-01 2.59e-01 2.53e-01 2.50e-01 15 -5.84e-01 -2.63e-01 4.39e-02 2.26e-01 3.05e-01 3.38e-01 3.26e-01 2.67e-01 2.49e-01 2.43e-01 2.41e-01 16 -5.78e-01 -2.60e-01 2.56e-02 2.09e-01 2.88e-01 3.21e-01 3.11e-01 2.56e-01 2.39e-01 2.33e-01 2.31e-01 17 -5.73e-01 -2.58e-01 7.07e-03 1.92e-01 2.72e-01 3.05e-01 2.97e-01 2.45e-01 2.29e-01 2.24e-01 2.22e-01 18 -5.67e-01 -2.55e-01 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3.28e-02 3.16e-02 3.16e-02 3.17e-02 66 -3.50e-01 -1.59e-01 -1.62e-02 3.06e-02 5.83e-02 6.19e-02 3.15e-02 3.15e-02 3.03e-02 3.04e-02 3.04e-02 67 -3.46e-01 -1.57e-01 -1.60e-02 3.02e-02 5.70e-02 6.27e-02 2.97e-02 3.03e-02 2.91e-02 2.92e-02 2.92e-02 68 -3.43e-01 -1.55e-01 -1.59e-02 2.99e-02 5.56e-02 6.31e-02 2.78e-02 2.91e-02 2.80e-02 2.80e-02 2.81e-02 69 -3.40e-01 -1.54e-01 -1.57e-02 2.96e-02 5.42e-02 6.33e-02 2.60e-02 2.80e-02 2.68e-02 2.69e-02 2.70e-02 70 -3.36e-01 -1.52e-01 -1.56e-02 2.93e-02 5.27e-02 6.33e-02 2.42e-02 2.70e-02 2.58e-02 2.58e-02 2.59e-02 71 -3.33e-01 -1.51e-01 -1.54e-02 2.91e-02 5.12e-02 6.30e-02 2.24e-02 2.59e-02 2.48e-02 2.48e-02 2.49e-02 72 -3.29e-01 -1.49e-01 -1.53e-02 2.89e-02 4.97e-02 6.26e-02 2.06e-02 2.50e-02 2.38e-02 2.38e-02 2.39e-02 73 -3.26e-01 -1.48e-01 -1.51e-02 2.88e-02 4.82e-02 6.20e-02 1.89e-02 2.40e-02 2.28e-02 2.29e-02 2.29e-02 74 -3.23e-01 -1.46e-01 -1.50e-02 2.86e-02 4.68e-02 6.13e-02 1.71e-02 2.31e-02 2.19e-02 2.19e-02 2.20e-02 75 -3.20e-01 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94 -2.64e-01 -1.20e-01 -1.23e-02 2.42e-02 3.26e-02 3.59e-02 -2.31e-02 1.15e-02 9.87e-03 9.77e-03 9.81e-03 95 -2.61e-01 -1.18e-01 -1.21e-02 2.39e-02 3.25e-02 3.47e-02 -2.56e-02 1.12e-02 9.49e-03 9.38e-03 9.42e-03 96 -2.59e-01 -1.17e-01 -1.20e-02 2.36e-02 3.25e-02 3.35e-02 -2.82e-02 1.08e-02 9.13e-03 9.01e-03 9.05e-03 97 -2.56e-01 -1.16e-01 -1.19e-02 2.34e-02 3.24e-02 3.24e-02 -3.09e-02 1.05e-02 8.78e-03 8.66e-03 8.69e-03 98 -2.54e-01 -1.15e-01 -1.18e-02 2.31e-02 3.23e-02 3.14e-02 -3.37e-02 1.02e-02 8.44e-03 8.32e-03 8.34e-03 99 -2.51e-01 -1.14e-01 -1.17e-02 2.28e-02 3.22e-02 3.04e-02 -3.66e-02 9.89e-03 8.12e-03 7.99e-03 8.01e-03 100 -2.49e-01 -1.13e-01 -1.15e-02 2.26e-02 3.20e-02 2.94e-02 -3.96e-02 9.60e-03 7.82e-03 7.67e-03 7.70e-03 Figure 4. Impulse Responses Using LDSVAR Procedure with Various Lags applied to data from model in limit Codes: run codes for figure 1 and ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with vector of lags, alpha=0 Responses to 1% eps with p=4,10,20,30,40,50,100,200,300,400,500 --------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1.06e+00 9.35e-01 7.70e-01 6.52e-01 5.70e-01 5.13e-01 4.04e-01 3.85e-01 3.84e-01 3.84e-01 3.84e-01 1 1.01e+00 8.87e-01 7.31e-01 6.20e-01 5.43e-01 4.90e-01 3.88e-01 3.69e-01 3.69e-01 3.69e-01 3.69e-01 2 9.54e-01 8.41e-01 6.94e-01 5.90e-01 5.18e-01 4.67e-01 3.72e-01 3.55e-01 3.54e-01 3.54e-01 3.54e-01 3 9.04e-01 7.97e-01 6.59e-01 5.61e-01 4.93e-01 4.46e-01 3.57e-01 3.41e-01 3.40e-01 3.40e-01 3.40e-01 4 8.48e-01 7.56e-01 6.26e-01 5.34e-01 4.70e-01 4.26e-01 3.42e-01 3.27e-01 3.27e-01 3.27e-01 3.27e-01 5 7.93e-01 7.17e-01 5.94e-01 5.08e-01 4.48e-01 4.07e-01 3.28e-01 3.14e-01 3.14e-01 3.14e-01 3.14e-01 6 7.41e-01 6.80e-01 5.64e-01 4.83e-01 4.27e-01 3.88e-01 3.15e-01 3.02e-01 3.01e-01 3.01e-01 3.01e-01 7 6.92e-01 6.45e-01 5.36e-01 4.60e-01 4.07e-01 3.71e-01 3.02e-01 2.90e-01 2.89e-01 2.89e-01 2.89e-01 8 6.47e-01 6.12e-01 5.09e-01 4.38e-01 3.88e-01 3.54e-01 2.90e-01 2.78e-01 2.78e-01 2.78e-01 2.78e-01 9 6.04e-01 5.81e-01 4.84e-01 4.16e-01 3.70e-01 3.38e-01 2.78e-01 2.67e-01 2.67e-01 2.67e-01 2.67e-01 10 5.64e-01 5.44e-01 4.60e-01 3.96e-01 3.53e-01 3.23e-01 2.67e-01 2.57e-01 2.56e-01 2.56e-01 2.56e-01 11 5.27e-01 5.08e-01 4.37e-01 3.77e-01 3.36e-01 3.08e-01 2.56e-01 2.46e-01 2.46e-01 2.46e-01 2.46e-01 12 4.93e-01 4.74e-01 4.15e-01 3.59e-01 3.21e-01 2.94e-01 2.46e-01 2.37e-01 2.36e-01 2.36e-01 2.36e-01 13 4.60e-01 4.42e-01 3.95e-01 3.42e-01 3.06e-01 2.81e-01 2.36e-01 2.27e-01 2.27e-01 2.27e-01 2.27e-01 14 4.30e-01 4.13e-01 3.75e-01 3.25e-01 2.92e-01 2.69e-01 2.26e-01 2.18e-01 2.18e-01 2.18e-01 2.18e-01 15 4.02e-01 3.85e-01 3.57e-01 3.10e-01 2.78e-01 2.56e-01 2.17e-01 2.10e-01 2.09e-01 2.09e-01 2.09e-01 16 3.75e-01 3.59e-01 3.40e-01 2.95e-01 2.65e-01 2.45e-01 2.08e-01 2.01e-01 2.01e-01 2.01e-01 2.01e-01 17 3.50e-01 3.34e-01 3.23e-01 2.81e-01 2.53e-01 2.34e-01 1.99e-01 1.93e-01 1.93e-01 1.93e-01 1.93e-01 18 3.27e-01 3.11e-01 3.08e-01 2.68e-01 2.41e-01 2.24e-01 1.91e-01 1.86e-01 1.86e-01 1.86e-01 1.86e-01 19 3.06e-01 2.90e-01 2.93e-01 2.55e-01 2.30e-01 2.14e-01 1.84e-01 1.78e-01 1.78e-01 1.78e-01 1.78e-01 20 2.86e-01 2.69e-01 2.75e-01 2.43e-01 2.20e-01 2.04e-01 1.76e-01 1.71e-01 1.71e-01 1.71e-01 1.71e-01 21 2.67e-01 2.51e-01 2.56e-01 2.32e-01 2.10e-01 1.95e-01 1.69e-01 1.64e-01 1.64e-01 1.64e-01 1.64e-01 22 2.49e-01 2.33e-01 2.38e-01 2.21e-01 2.00e-01 1.86e-01 1.62e-01 1.58e-01 1.58e-01 1.58e-01 1.58e-01 23 2.33e-01 2.17e-01 2.22e-01 2.11e-01 1.91e-01 1.78e-01 1.56e-01 1.52e-01 1.52e-01 1.52e-01 1.52e-01 24 2.18e-01 2.02e-01 2.06e-01 2.01e-01 1.82e-01 1.70e-01 1.49e-01 1.46e-01 1.46e-01 1.46e-01 1.46e-01 25 2.03e-01 1.88e-01 1.92e-01 1.92e-01 1.74e-01 1.63e-01 1.43e-01 1.40e-01 1.40e-01 1.40e-01 1.40e-01 26 1.90e-01 1.75e-01 1.78e-01 1.83e-01 1.66e-01 1.56e-01 1.37e-01 1.34e-01 1.34e-01 1.34e-01 1.34e-01 27 1.77e-01 1.62e-01 1.66e-01 1.75e-01 1.59e-01 1.49e-01 1.32e-01 1.29e-01 1.29e-01 1.29e-01 1.29e-01 28 1.66e-01 1.51e-01 1.54e-01 1.67e-01 1.52e-01 1.42e-01 1.26e-01 1.24e-01 1.24e-01 1.24e-01 1.24e-01 29 1.55e-01 1.41e-01 1.43e-01 1.60e-01 1.45e-01 1.36e-01 1.21e-01 1.19e-01 1.19e-01 1.19e-01 1.19e-01 30 1.45e-01 1.31e-01 1.33e-01 1.50e-01 1.39e-01 1.30e-01 1.16e-01 1.14e-01 1.14e-01 1.14e-01 1.14e-01 31 1.35e-01 1.22e-01 1.23e-01 1.40e-01 1.33e-01 1.24e-01 1.12e-01 1.10e-01 1.10e-01 1.10e-01 1.10e-01 32 1.26e-01 1.13e-01 1.14e-01 1.30e-01 1.27e-01 1.19e-01 1.07e-01 1.05e-01 1.05e-01 1.05e-01 1.05e-01 33 1.18e-01 1.05e-01 1.05e-01 1.21e-01 1.22e-01 1.14e-01 1.03e-01 1.01e-01 1.01e-01 1.01e-01 1.01e-01 34 1.10e-01 9.78e-02 9.74e-02 1.12e-01 1.16e-01 1.09e-01 9.86e-02 9.72e-02 9.72e-02 9.72e-02 9.72e-02 35 1.03e-01 9.09e-02 9.00e-02 1.04e-01 1.11e-01 1.04e-01 9.47e-02 9.33e-02 9.33e-02 9.33e-02 9.33e-02 36 9.61e-02 8.46e-02 8.31e-02 9.66e-02 1.07e-01 1.00e-01 9.08e-02 8.96e-02 8.96e-02 8.96e-02 8.96e-02 37 8.98e-02 7.86e-02 7.67e-02 8.95e-02 1.02e-01 9.58e-02 8.72e-02 8.61e-02 8.61e-02 8.61e-02 8.61e-02 38 8.39e-02 7.31e-02 7.07e-02 8.29e-02 9.82e-02 9.18e-02 8.36e-02 8.27e-02 8.26e-02 8.26e-02 8.26e-02 39 7.84e-02 6.80e-02 6.51e-02 7.68e-02 9.43e-02 8.80e-02 8.02e-02 7.94e-02 7.94e-02 7.94e-02 7.94e-02 40 7.32e-02 6.33e-02 5.98e-02 7.11e-02 8.86e-02 8.44e-02 7.70e-02 7.62e-02 7.62e-02 7.62e-02 7.62e-02 41 6.84e-02 5.88e-02 5.50e-02 6.57e-02 8.24e-02 8.09e-02 7.39e-02 7.32e-02 7.32e-02 7.32e-02 7.32e-02 42 6.39e-02 5.47e-02 5.05e-02 6.07e-02 7.65e-02 7.76e-02 7.09e-02 7.03e-02 7.03e-02 7.03e-02 7.03e-02 43 5.97e-02 5.09e-02 4.64e-02 5.60e-02 7.10e-02 7.45e-02 6.80e-02 6.75e-02 6.75e-02 6.75e-02 6.75e-02 44 5.58e-02 4.73e-02 4.26e-02 5.16e-02 6.59e-02 7.15e-02 6.53e-02 6.48e-02 6.48e-02 6.48e-02 6.48e-02 45 5.21e-02 4.40e-02 3.91e-02 4.76e-02 6.11e-02 6.87e-02 6.27e-02 6.23e-02 6.23e-02 6.23e-02 6.23e-02 46 4.87e-02 4.09e-02 3.59e-02 4.38e-02 5.66e-02 6.60e-02 6.01e-02 5.98e-02 5.98e-02 5.98e-02 5.98e-02 47 4.55e-02 3.81e-02 3.29e-02 4.02e-02 5.24e-02 6.35e-02 5.77e-02 5.74e-02 5.74e-02 5.74e-02 5.74e-02 48 4.25e-02 3.54e-02 3.01e-02 3.70e-02 4.85e-02 6.11e-02 5.54e-02 5.52e-02 5.52e-02 5.52e-02 5.52e-02 49 3.97e-02 3.29e-02 2.76e-02 3.39e-02 4.48e-02 5.88e-02 5.32e-02 5.30e-02 5.30e-02 5.30e-02 5.30e-02 50 3.71e-02 3.06e-02 2.52e-02 3.10e-02 4.14e-02 5.53e-02 5.10e-02 5.09e-02 5.09e-02 5.09e-02 5.09e-02 51 3.46e-02 2.85e-02 2.31e-02 2.84e-02 3.82e-02 5.14e-02 4.90e-02 4.89e-02 4.89e-02 4.89e-02 4.89e-02 52 3.23e-02 2.65e-02 2.11e-02 2.59e-02 3.52e-02 4.77e-02 4.70e-02 4.69e-02 4.69e-02 4.69e-02 4.69e-02 53 3.02e-02 2.46e-02 1.93e-02 2.36e-02 3.25e-02 4.43e-02 4.51e-02 4.51e-02 4.51e-02 4.51e-02 4.51e-02 54 2.82e-02 2.29e-02 1.76e-02 2.14e-02 2.99e-02 4.11e-02 4.33e-02 4.33e-02 4.33e-02 4.33e-02 4.33e-02 55 2.64e-02 2.13e-02 1.61e-02 1.94e-02 2.75e-02 3.81e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 4.16e-02 56 2.46e-02 1.98e-02 1.47e-02 1.76e-02 2.52e-02 3.53e-02 3.99e-02 3.99e-02 3.99e-02 3.99e-02 3.99e-02 57 2.30e-02 1.84e-02 1.34e-02 1.58e-02 2.31e-02 3.26e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 3.83e-02 58 2.15e-02 1.71e-02 1.22e-02 1.42e-02 2.11e-02 3.02e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 3.68e-02 59 2.01e-02 1.59e-02 1.11e-02 1.27e-02 1.93e-02 2.79e-02 3.53e-02 3.53e-02 3.54e-02 3.54e-02 3.54e-02 60 1.88e-02 1.48e-02 1.01e-02 1.13e-02 1.76e-02 2.57e-02 3.39e-02 3.39e-02 3.40e-02 3.40e-02 3.40e-02 61 1.75e-02 1.38e-02 9.20e-03 1.01e-02 1.61e-02 2.37e-02 3.25e-02 3.26e-02 3.26e-02 3.26e-02 3.26e-02 62 1.64e-02 1.28e-02 8.37e-03 8.93e-03 1.46e-02 2.18e-02 3.12e-02 3.13e-02 3.13e-02 3.13e-02 3.13e-02 63 1.53e-02 1.19e-02 7.62e-03 7.89e-03 1.32e-02 2.01e-02 3.00e-02 3.01e-02 3.01e-02 3.01e-02 3.01e-02 64 1.43e-02 1.11e-02 6.92e-03 6.94e-03 1.20e-02 1.85e-02 2.88e-02 2.89e-02 2.89e-02 2.89e-02 2.89e-02 65 1.34e-02 1.03e-02 6.29e-03 6.07e-03 1.08e-02 1.70e-02 2.77e-02 2.77e-02 2.77e-02 2.77e-02 2.77e-02 66 1.25e-02 9.59e-03 5.71e-03 5.29e-03 9.73e-03 1.55e-02 2.66e-02 2.66e-02 2.66e-02 2.66e-02 2.66e-02 67 1.17e-02 8.92e-03 5.19e-03 4.58e-03 8.72e-03 1.42e-02 2.55e-02 2.56e-02 2.56e-02 2.56e-02 2.56e-02 68 1.09e-02 8.29e-03 4.71e-03 3.94e-03 7.79e-03 1.30e-02 2.45e-02 2.46e-02 2.46e-02 2.46e-02 2.46e-02 69 1.02e-02 7.71e-03 4.27e-03 3.36e-03 6.92e-03 1.19e-02 2.35e-02 2.36e-02 2.36e-02 2.36e-02 2.36e-02 70 9.50e-03 7.17e-03 3.87e-03 2.84e-03 6.12e-03 1.08e-02 2.26e-02 2.27e-02 2.27e-02 2.27e-02 2.27e-02 71 8.87e-03 6.67e-03 3.51e-03 2.37e-03 5.38e-03 9.81e-03 2.17e-02 2.18e-02 2.18e-02 2.18e-02 2.18e-02 72 8.29e-03 6.20e-03 3.18e-03 1.94e-03 4.69e-03 8.89e-03 2.09e-02 2.09e-02 2.09e-02 2.09e-02 2.09e-02 73 7.74e-03 5.77e-03 2.87e-03 1.57e-03 4.05e-03 8.04e-03 2.01e-02 2.01e-02 2.01e-02 2.01e-02 2.01e-02 74 7.23e-03 5.37e-03 2.60e-03 1.23e-03 3.47e-03 7.25e-03 1.93e-02 1.93e-02 1.93e-02 1.93e-02 1.93e-02 75 6.76e-03 4.99e-03 2.35e-03 9.30e-04 2.93e-03 6.52e-03 1.85e-02 1.85e-02 1.85e-02 1.85e-02 1.85e-02 76 6.31e-03 4.64e-03 2.13e-03 6.63e-04 2.43e-03 5.84e-03 1.78e-02 1.78e-02 1.78e-02 1.78e-02 1.78e-02 77 5.90e-03 4.32e-03 1.92e-03 4.28e-04 1.96e-03 5.21e-03 1.71e-02 1.71e-02 1.71e-02 1.71e-02 1.71e-02 78 5.51e-03 4.01e-03 1.74e-03 2.20e-04 1.54e-03 4.63e-03 1.65e-02 1.64e-02 1.64e-02 1.64e-02 1.64e-02 79 5.15e-03 3.73e-03 1.57e-03 3.78e-05 1.14e-03 4.09e-03 1.58e-02 1.57e-02 1.57e-02 1.57e-02 1.57e-02 80 4.81e-03 3.47e-03 1.41e-03 -1.21e-04 7.88e-04 3.59e-03 1.52e-02 1.51e-02 1.51e-02 1.51e-02 1.51e-02 81 4.49e-03 3.23e-03 1.28e-03 -2.59e-04 4.69e-04 3.13e-03 1.46e-02 1.45e-02 1.45e-02 1.45e-02 1.45e-02 82 4.20e-03 3.00e-03 1.15e-03 -3.77e-04 1.85e-04 2.71e-03 1.41e-02 1.39e-02 1.39e-02 1.39e-02 1.39e-02 83 3.92e-03 2.79e-03 1.04e-03 -4.78e-04 -6.55e-05 2.32e-03 1.36e-02 1.34e-02 1.34e-02 1.34e-02 1.34e-02 84 3.66e-03 2.60e-03 9.33e-04 -5.64e-04 -2.86e-04 1.96e-03 1.30e-02 1.29e-02 1.29e-02 1.29e-02 1.29e-02 85 3.42e-03 2.42e-03 8.40e-04 -6.35e-04 -4.80e-04 1.62e-03 1.26e-02 1.23e-02 1.24e-02 1.24e-02 1.24e-02 86 3.20e-03 2.25e-03 7.55e-04 -6.94e-04 -6.48e-04 1.32e-03 1.21e-02 1.19e-02 1.19e-02 1.19e-02 1.19e-02 87 2.99e-03 2.09e-03 6.79e-04 -7.40e-04 -7.94e-04 1.04e-03 1.17e-02 1.14e-02 1.14e-02 1.14e-02 1.14e-02 88 2.79e-03 1.94e-03 6.10e-04 -7.77e-04 -9.19e-04 7.80e-04 1.12e-02 1.09e-02 1.09e-02 1.09e-02 1.09e-02 89 2.61e-03 1.81e-03 5.48e-04 -8.04e-04 -1.03e-03 5.44e-04 1.08e-02 1.05e-02 1.05e-02 1.05e-02 1.05e-02 90 2.43e-03 1.68e-03 4.92e-04 -8.23e-04 -1.12e-03 3.28e-04 1.04e-02 1.01e-02 1.01e-02 1.01e-02 1.01e-02 91 2.27e-03 1.56e-03 4.41e-04 -8.34e-04 -1.19e-03 1.31e-04 1.01e-02 9.69e-03 9.69e-03 9.69e-03 9.69e-03 92 2.12e-03 1.45e-03 3.96e-04 -8.39e-04 -1.25e-03 -5.00e-05 9.71e-03 9.30e-03 9.31e-03 9.31e-03 9.31e-03 93 1.98e-03 1.35e-03 3.54e-04 -8.39e-04 -1.30e-03 -2.15e-04 9.37e-03 8.93e-03 8.94e-03 8.94e-03 8.94e-03 94 1.85e-03 1.26e-03 3.17e-04 -8.34e-04 -1.34e-03 -3.65e-04 9.05e-03 8.58e-03 8.59e-03 8.59e-03 8.59e-03 95 1.73e-03 1.17e-03 2.84e-04 -8.24e-04 -1.36e-03 -5.01e-04 8.74e-03 8.24e-03 8.25e-03 8.25e-03 8.25e-03 96 1.62e-03 1.09e-03 2.54e-04 -8.11e-04 -1.38e-03 -6.26e-04 8.45e-03 7.91e-03 7.92e-03 7.92e-03 7.92e-03 97 1.51e-03 1.01e-03 2.27e-04 -7.95e-04 -1.39e-03 -7.38e-04 8.17e-03 7.60e-03 7.60e-03 7.61e-03 7.61e-03 98 1.41e-03 9.40e-04 2.03e-04 -7.77e-04 -1.39e-03 -8.41e-04 7.90e-03 7.30e-03 7.30e-03 7.30e-03 7.30e-03 99 1.32e-03 8.74e-04 1.81e-04 -7.57e-04 -1.39e-03 -9.33e-04 7.65e-03 7.01e-03 7.01e-03 7.01e-03 7.01e-03 100 1.23e-03 8.13e-04 1.61e-04 -7.34e-04 -1.38e-03 -1.01e-03 7.22e-03 6.73e-03 6.74e-03 6.74e-03 6.74e-03 Responses to 1% TFP with p=4,10,20,30,40,50,100,200,300,400,500 --------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1.22e+00 1.07e+00 8.80e-01 7.45e-01 6.51e-01 5.86e-01 4.62e-01 4.40e-01 4.39e-01 4.39e-01 4.39e-01 1 1.15e+00 1.01e+00 8.35e-01 7.09e-01 6.21e-01 5.59e-01 4.43e-01 4.22e-01 4.22e-01 4.22e-01 4.22e-01 2 1.09e+00 9.61e-01 7.93e-01 6.74e-01 5.92e-01 5.34e-01 4.25e-01 4.05e-01 4.05e-01 4.05e-01 4.05e-01 3 1.03e+00 9.11e-01 7.53e-01 6.42e-01 5.64e-01 5.10e-01 4.08e-01 3.89e-01 3.89e-01 3.89e-01 3.89e-01 4 9.69e-01 8.64e-01 7.15e-01 6.10e-01 5.37e-01 4.87e-01 3.91e-01 3.74e-01 3.73e-01 3.73e-01 3.73e-01 5 9.06e-01 8.19e-01 6.79e-01 5.81e-01 5.12e-01 4.65e-01 3.75e-01 3.59e-01 3.59e-01 3.59e-01 3.59e-01 6 8.47e-01 7.77e-01 6.45e-01 5.52e-01 4.88e-01 4.44e-01 3.60e-01 3.45e-01 3.44e-01 3.44e-01 3.44e-01 7 7.91e-01 7.37e-01 6.13e-01 5.26e-01 4.65e-01 4.24e-01 3.45e-01 3.31e-01 3.31e-01 3.31e-01 3.31e-01 8 7.39e-01 6.99e-01 5.82e-01 5.00e-01 4.44e-01 4.05e-01 3.31e-01 3.18e-01 3.18e-01 3.18e-01 3.18e-01 9 6.91e-01 6.64e-01 5.53e-01 4.76e-01 4.23e-01 3.86e-01 3.18e-01 3.05e-01 3.05e-01 3.05e-01 3.05e-01 10 6.45e-01 6.22e-01 5.25e-01 4.53e-01 4.03e-01 3.69e-01 3.05e-01 2.93e-01 2.93e-01 2.93e-01 2.93e-01 11 6.03e-01 5.81e-01 4.99e-01 4.31e-01 3.84e-01 3.52e-01 2.92e-01 2.82e-01 2.81e-01 2.81e-01 2.81e-01 12 5.63e-01 5.42e-01 4.74e-01 4.10e-01 3.66e-01 3.36e-01 2.81e-01 2.71e-01 2.70e-01 2.70e-01 2.70e-01 13 5.26e-01 5.06e-01 4.51e-01 3.91e-01 3.49e-01 3.21e-01 2.69e-01 2.60e-01 2.60e-01 2.60e-01 2.60e-01 14 4.91e-01 4.72e-01 4.29e-01 3.72e-01 3.33e-01 3.07e-01 2.58e-01 2.49e-01 2.49e-01 2.49e-01 2.49e-01 15 4.59e-01 4.40e-01 4.08e-01 3.54e-01 3.18e-01 2.93e-01 2.48e-01 2.40e-01 2.39e-01 2.39e-01 2.39e-01 16 4.29e-01 4.10e-01 3.88e-01 3.37e-01 3.03e-01 2.80e-01 2.38e-01 2.30e-01 2.30e-01 2.30e-01 2.30e-01 17 4.01e-01 3.82e-01 3.69e-01 3.21e-01 2.89e-01 2.67e-01 2.28e-01 2.21e-01 2.21e-01 2.21e-01 2.21e-01 18 3.74e-01 3.55e-01 3.52e-01 3.06e-01 2.76e-01 2.55e-01 2.19e-01 2.12e-01 2.12e-01 2.12e-01 2.12e-01 19 3.50e-01 3.31e-01 3.35e-01 2.92e-01 2.63e-01 2.44e-01 2.10e-01 2.04e-01 2.04e-01 2.04e-01 2.04e-01 20 3.27e-01 3.08e-01 3.14e-01 2.78e-01 2.51e-01 2.33e-01 2.01e-01 1.96e-01 1.96e-01 1.96e-01 1.96e-01 21 3.05e-01 2.86e-01 2.93e-01 2.65e-01 2.40e-01 2.23e-01 1.93e-01 1.88e-01 1.88e-01 1.88e-01 1.88e-01 22 2.85e-01 2.67e-01 2.72e-01 2.53e-01 2.29e-01 2.13e-01 1.85e-01 1.80e-01 1.80e-01 1.80e-01 1.80e-01 23 2.66e-01 2.48e-01 2.54e-01 2.41e-01 2.18e-01 2.04e-01 1.78e-01 1.73e-01 1.73e-01 1.73e-01 1.73e-01 24 2.49e-01 2.31e-01 2.36e-01 2.30e-01 2.08e-01 1.95e-01 1.71e-01 1.66e-01 1.66e-01 1.66e-01 1.66e-01 25 2.32e-01 2.15e-01 2.19e-01 2.20e-01 1.99e-01 1.86e-01 1.64e-01 1.60e-01 1.60e-01 1.60e-01 1.60e-01 26 2.17e-01 2.00e-01 2.04e-01 2.10e-01 1.90e-01 1.78e-01 1.57e-01 1.54e-01 1.53e-01 1.53e-01 1.53e-01 27 2.03e-01 1.86e-01 1.89e-01 2.00e-01 1.82e-01 1.70e-01 1.51e-01 1.47e-01 1.47e-01 1.47e-01 1.47e-01 28 1.89e-01 1.73e-01 1.76e-01 1.91e-01 1.74e-01 1.63e-01 1.44e-01 1.42e-01 1.42e-01 1.42e-01 1.42e-01 29 1.77e-01 1.61e-01 1.63e-01 1.83e-01 1.66e-01 1.55e-01 1.39e-01 1.36e-01 1.36e-01 1.36e-01 1.36e-01 30 1.65e-01 1.49e-01 1.51e-01 1.72e-01 1.59e-01 1.49e-01 1.33e-01 1.31e-01 1.31e-01 1.31e-01 1.31e-01 31 1.54e-01 1.39e-01 1.40e-01 1.60e-01 1.52e-01 1.42e-01 1.28e-01 1.25e-01 1.25e-01 1.25e-01 1.25e-01 32 1.44e-01 1.29e-01 1.30e-01 1.49e-01 1.45e-01 1.36e-01 1.22e-01 1.20e-01 1.20e-01 1.20e-01 1.20e-01 33 1.35e-01 1.20e-01 1.20e-01 1.38e-01 1.39e-01 1.30e-01 1.17e-01 1.16e-01 1.16e-01 1.16e-01 1.16e-01 34 1.26e-01 1.12e-01 1.11e-01 1.28e-01 1.33e-01 1.25e-01 1.13e-01 1.11e-01 1.11e-01 1.11e-01 1.11e-01 35 1.18e-01 1.04e-01 1.03e-01 1.19e-01 1.27e-01 1.19e-01 1.08e-01 1.07e-01 1.07e-01 1.07e-01 1.07e-01 36 1.10e-01 9.66e-02 9.50e-02 1.10e-01 1.22e-01 1.14e-01 1.04e-01 1.02e-01 1.02e-01 1.02e-01 1.02e-01 37 1.03e-01 8.99e-02 8.77e-02 1.02e-01 1.17e-01 1.10e-01 9.96e-02 9.84e-02 9.83e-02 9.83e-02 9.83e-02 38 9.59e-02 8.36e-02 8.08e-02 9.48e-02 1.12e-01 1.05e-01 9.56e-02 9.45e-02 9.44e-02 9.44e-02 9.44e-02 39 8.96e-02 7.77e-02 7.44e-02 8.78e-02 1.08e-01 1.01e-01 9.17e-02 9.07e-02 9.07e-02 9.07e-02 9.07e-02 40 8.37e-02 7.23e-02 6.84e-02 8.12e-02 1.01e-01 9.64e-02 8.80e-02 8.71e-02 8.71e-02 8.71e-02 8.71e-02 41 7.82e-02 6.72e-02 6.29e-02 7.51e-02 9.41e-02 9.25e-02 8.44e-02 8.37e-02 8.37e-02 8.37e-02 8.37e-02 42 7.30e-02 6.25e-02 5.78e-02 6.93e-02 8.74e-02 8.87e-02 8.10e-02 8.04e-02 8.03e-02 8.03e-02 8.03e-02 43 6.82e-02 5.82e-02 5.30e-02 6.40e-02 8.12e-02 8.51e-02 7.78e-02 7.72e-02 7.72e-02 7.72e-02 7.72e-02 44 6.37e-02 5.41e-02 4.87e-02 5.90e-02 7.53e-02 8.17e-02 7.46e-02 7.41e-02 7.41e-02 7.41e-02 7.41e-02 45 5.95e-02 5.03e-02 4.47e-02 5.44e-02 6.98e-02 7.85e-02 7.16e-02 7.12e-02 7.12e-02 7.12e-02 7.12e-02 46 5.56e-02 4.68e-02 4.10e-02 5.00e-02 6.47e-02 7.54e-02 6.87e-02 6.84e-02 6.83e-02 6.83e-02 6.83e-02 47 5.20e-02 4.35e-02 3.76e-02 4.60e-02 5.99e-02 7.25e-02 6.60e-02 6.56e-02 6.56e-02 6.56e-02 6.56e-02 48 4.85e-02 4.05e-02 3.44e-02 4.22e-02 5.54e-02 6.98e-02 6.33e-02 6.30e-02 6.30e-02 6.30e-02 6.30e-02 49 4.53e-02 3.76e-02 3.15e-02 3.87e-02 5.12e-02 6.72e-02 6.08e-02 6.05e-02 6.05e-02 6.05e-02 6.05e-02 50 4.24e-02 3.50e-02 2.88e-02 3.54e-02 4.73e-02 6.32e-02 5.83e-02 5.81e-02 5.81e-02 5.81e-02 5.81e-02 51 3.96e-02 3.25e-02 2.64e-02 3.24e-02 4.37e-02 5.88e-02 5.60e-02 5.58e-02 5.58e-02 5.58e-02 5.58e-02 52 3.70e-02 3.03e-02 2.41e-02 2.96e-02 4.03e-02 5.46e-02 5.37e-02 5.36e-02 5.36e-02 5.36e-02 5.36e-02 53 3.45e-02 2.81e-02 2.20e-02 2.69e-02 3.71e-02 5.06e-02 5.16e-02 5.15e-02 5.15e-02 5.15e-02 5.15e-02 54 3.23e-02 2.62e-02 2.01e-02 2.45e-02 3.41e-02 4.69e-02 4.95e-02 4.95e-02 4.95e-02 4.95e-02 4.95e-02 55 3.01e-02 2.43e-02 1.84e-02 2.22e-02 3.14e-02 4.35e-02 4.75e-02 4.75e-02 4.75e-02 4.75e-02 4.75e-02 56 2.82e-02 2.26e-02 1.68e-02 2.01e-02 2.88e-02 4.03e-02 4.56e-02 4.56e-02 4.56e-02 4.56e-02 4.56e-02 57 2.63e-02 2.11e-02 1.53e-02 1.81e-02 2.64e-02 3.73e-02 4.38e-02 4.38e-02 4.38e-02 4.38e-02 4.38e-02 58 2.46e-02 1.96e-02 1.39e-02 1.62e-02 2.42e-02 3.45e-02 4.20e-02 4.21e-02 4.21e-02 4.21e-02 4.21e-02 59 2.30e-02 1.82e-02 1.27e-02 1.45e-02 2.21e-02 3.18e-02 4.03e-02 4.04e-02 4.04e-02 4.04e-02 4.04e-02 60 2.14e-02 1.69e-02 1.16e-02 1.30e-02 2.02e-02 2.94e-02 3.87e-02 3.88e-02 3.88e-02 3.88e-02 3.88e-02 61 2.00e-02 1.58e-02 1.05e-02 1.15e-02 1.84e-02 2.71e-02 3.72e-02 3.73e-02 3.73e-02 3.73e-02 3.73e-02 62 1.87e-02 1.46e-02 9.57e-03 1.02e-02 1.67e-02 2.50e-02 3.57e-02 3.58e-02 3.58e-02 3.58e-02 3.58e-02 63 1.75e-02 1.36e-02 8.70e-03 9.02e-03 1.51e-02 2.30e-02 3.43e-02 3.44e-02 3.44e-02 3.44e-02 3.44e-02 64 1.63e-02 1.27e-02 7.91e-03 7.93e-03 1.37e-02 2.11e-02 3.29e-02 3.30e-02 3.30e-02 3.30e-02 3.30e-02 65 1.53e-02 1.18e-02 7.19e-03 6.94e-03 1.24e-02 1.94e-02 3.16e-02 3.17e-02 3.17e-02 3.17e-02 3.17e-02 66 1.43e-02 1.10e-02 6.53e-03 6.05e-03 1.11e-02 1.78e-02 3.04e-02 3.04e-02 3.04e-02 3.04e-02 3.04e-02 67 1.33e-02 1.02e-02 5.93e-03 5.23e-03 9.97e-03 1.63e-02 2.92e-02 2.92e-02 2.92e-02 2.92e-02 2.92e-02 68 1.24e-02 9.48e-03 5.38e-03 4.50e-03 8.90e-03 1.49e-02 2.80e-02 2.81e-02 2.81e-02 2.81e-02 2.81e-02 69 1.16e-02 8.81e-03 4.88e-03 3.84e-03 7.91e-03 1.36e-02 2.69e-02 2.70e-02 2.70e-02 2.70e-02 2.70e-02 70 1.09e-02 8.20e-03 4.42e-03 3.24e-03 6.99e-03 1.23e-02 2.58e-02 2.59e-02 2.59e-02 2.59e-02 2.59e-02 71 1.01e-02 7.62e-03 4.01e-03 2.70e-03 6.14e-03 1.12e-02 2.48e-02 2.49e-02 2.49e-02 2.49e-02 2.49e-02 72 9.47e-03 7.09e-03 3.63e-03 2.22e-03 5.36e-03 1.02e-02 2.38e-02 2.39e-02 2.39e-02 2.39e-02 2.39e-02 73 8.85e-03 6.59e-03 3.29e-03 1.79e-03 4.63e-03 9.19e-03 2.29e-02 2.29e-02 2.29e-02 2.29e-02 2.29e-02 74 8.27e-03 6.13e-03 2.97e-03 1.41e-03 3.96e-03 8.29e-03 2.20e-02 2.20e-02 2.20e-02 2.20e-02 2.20e-02 75 7.72e-03 5.70e-03 2.69e-03 1.06e-03 3.34e-03 7.45e-03 2.12e-02 2.11e-02 2.12e-02 2.12e-02 2.12e-02 76 7.22e-03 5.30e-03 2.43e-03 7.58e-04 2.77e-03 6.67e-03 2.03e-02 2.03e-02 2.03e-02 2.03e-02 2.03e-02 77 6.74e-03 4.93e-03 2.20e-03 4.89e-04 2.24e-03 5.96e-03 1.96e-02 1.95e-02 1.95e-02 1.95e-02 1.95e-02 78 6.30e-03 4.59e-03 1.98e-03 2.51e-04 1.76e-03 5.29e-03 1.88e-02 1.87e-02 1.87e-02 1.87e-02 1.87e-02 79 5.88e-03 4.27e-03 1.79e-03 4.32e-05 1.31e-03 4.67e-03 1.81e-02 1.80e-02 1.80e-02 1.80e-02 1.80e-02 80 5.50e-03 3.97e-03 1.62e-03 -1.38e-04 9.00e-04 4.11e-03 1.74e-02 1.73e-02 1.73e-02 1.73e-02 1.73e-02 81 5.13e-03 3.69e-03 1.46e-03 -2.96e-04 5.35e-04 3.58e-03 1.67e-02 1.66e-02 1.66e-02 1.66e-02 1.66e-02 82 4.80e-03 3.43e-03 1.31e-03 -4.31e-04 2.12e-04 3.09e-03 1.61e-02 1.59e-02 1.59e-02 1.59e-02 1.59e-02 83 4.48e-03 3.19e-03 1.18e-03 -5.47e-04 -7.49e-05 2.65e-03 1.55e-02 1.53e-02 1.53e-02 1.53e-02 1.53e-02 84 4.19e-03 2.97e-03 1.07e-03 -6.44e-04 -3.27e-04 2.23e-03 1.49e-02 1.47e-02 1.47e-02 1.47e-02 1.47e-02 85 3.91e-03 2.76e-03 9.60e-04 -7.26e-04 -5.48e-04 1.86e-03 1.44e-02 1.41e-02 1.41e-02 1.41e-02 1.41e-02 86 3.65e-03 2.57e-03 8.63e-04 -7.93e-04 -7.41e-04 1.51e-03 1.38e-02 1.36e-02 1.36e-02 1.36e-02 1.36e-02 87 3.41e-03 2.39e-03 7.76e-04 -8.46e-04 -9.07e-04 1.19e-03 1.33e-02 1.30e-02 1.30e-02 1.30e-02 1.30e-02 88 3.19e-03 2.22e-03 6.97e-04 -8.88e-04 -1.05e-03 8.92e-04 1.28e-02 1.25e-02 1.25e-02 1.25e-02 1.25e-02 89 2.98e-03 2.06e-03 6.26e-04 -9.19e-04 -1.17e-03 6.22e-04 1.24e-02 1.20e-02 1.20e-02 1.20e-02 1.20e-02 90 2.78e-03 1.92e-03 5.62e-04 -9.40e-04 -1.28e-03 3.75e-04 1.19e-02 1.15e-02 1.15e-02 1.15e-02 1.15e-02 91 2.60e-03 1.79e-03 5.04e-04 -9.54e-04 -1.36e-03 1.49e-04 1.15e-02 1.11e-02 1.11e-02 1.11e-02 1.11e-02 92 2.43e-03 1.66e-03 4.52e-04 -9.59e-04 -1.43e-03 -5.71e-05 1.11e-02 1.06e-02 1.06e-02 1.06e-02 1.06e-02 93 2.27e-03 1.54e-03 4.05e-04 -9.59e-04 -1.48e-03 -2.45e-04 1.07e-02 1.02e-02 1.02e-02 1.02e-02 1.02e-02 94 2.12e-03 1.44e-03 3.63e-04 -9.53e-04 -1.53e-03 -4.17e-04 1.03e-02 9.81e-03 9.81e-03 9.81e-03 9.81e-03 95 1.98e-03 1.34e-03 3.25e-04 -9.42e-04 -1.56e-03 -5.73e-04 9.99e-03 9.42e-03 9.42e-03 9.42e-03 9.42e-03 96 1.85e-03 1.24e-03 2.90e-04 -9.27e-04 -1.58e-03 -7.15e-04 9.65e-03 9.04e-03 9.05e-03 9.05e-03 9.05e-03 97 1.73e-03 1.16e-03 2.59e-04 -9.09e-04 -1.59e-03 -8.44e-04 9.34e-03 8.68e-03 8.69e-03 8.69e-03 8.69e-03 98 1.61e-03 1.07e-03 2.32e-04 -8.88e-04 -1.59e-03 -9.61e-04 9.03e-03 8.34e-03 8.35e-03 8.35e-03 8.35e-03 99 1.51e-03 9.99e-04 2.07e-04 -8.65e-04 -1.59e-03 -1.07e-03 8.74e-03 8.01e-03 8.02e-03 8.02e-03 8.02e-03 100 1.41e-03 9.29e-04 1.84e-04 -8.39e-04 -1.58e-03 -1.16e-03 8.26e-03 7.69e-03 7.70e-03 7.70e-03 7.70e-03 Figure 5. Specification errors in relation to the capital share for LSVAR and QDSVAR Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth2.m with alpha=0 and alpha=.99 ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 Half-life: T=length(IR); i= find(IR(1:T-1,2)>.5*IR(1,2) & IR(2:T,2)<.5*IR(1,2)); wgt = (.5*IR(1,2)-IR(i+1,2))/(IR(i,2)-IR(i+1,2)); hltrue = wgt*i+(1-wgt)*(i+1); i= find(abs(IRsvar(1:T-1,2))>.5*abs(IRsvar(1,2)) & ... abs(IRsvar(2:T,2))<.5*abs(IRsvar(1,2))); wgt = (.5*IRsvar(1,2)-IRsvar(i+1,2))/(IRsvar(i,2)-IRsvar(i+1,2)); hlsvar = wgt*i+(1-wgt)*(i+1); [hlsvar,hltrue,(hlsvar-hltrue)/hltrue*100] NOTE: 1/2 life measure not great when IR's cross 0 and change direction (as happens for QDSVAR in some cases) (1) LSVAR Multiple, Impact of Hours in Size of Response to 1% shock to Half-Life of Capital Innovation to Technology Impulse response share ---------------------------- -------------------------- (=.33) SVAR True %Error SVAR True %Error -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0100 0.0515 0.0502 2.4863 2.0056 1.9848 1.0505 0.0500 0.1503 0.1309 14.8538 3.4791 3.2736 6.2773 0.1000 0.2363 0.1869 26.4316 4.6810 4.3199 8.3588 0.2000 0.3718 0.2578 44.2217 6.9536 5.9808 16.2650 0.3000 0.4852 0.3049 59.1626 8.0254 7.4746 7.3691 0.4000 0.5868 0.3389 73.1839 8.7773 8.8780 -1.1345 0.5000 0.6807 0.3636 87.2231 9.3982 10.2786 -8.5654 0.6000 0.7685 0.3806 101.9040 9.9448 11.6976 -14.9846 0.7000 0.8510 0.3909 117.7340 10.4688 13.1642 -20.4754 0.8000 0.9281 0.3946 135.1891 10.9516 14.7124 -25.5623 0.9000 0.9992 0.3922 154.7575 11.4300 16.3645 -30.1538 1.0000 1.0636 0.3840 176.9707 11.8802 18.1499 -34.5439 1.2500 1.1887 0.3414 248.1839 12.9453 23.4588 -44.8169 1.5000 1.2560 0.2785 350.9449 13.8724 30.5835 -54.6408 1.7500 1.2700 0.2132 495.6075 14.5864 40.7206 -64.1793 2.0000 1.2441 0.1581 686.8965 14.9901 56.0638 -73.2623 (2) QDSVAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0010 0.0090 0.0086 5.2265 1.6081 1.5798 1.7900 0.0050 0.0334 0.0311 7.2393 1.8441 1.7955 2.7091 0.0100 0.0545 0.0502 8.4380 2.0987 1.9848 5.7421 0.0200 0.0849 0.0777 9.2523 2.5700 2.4463 5.0526 0.0300 0.1077 0.0986 9.2215 2.8592 2.7508 3.9405 0.0400 0.1261 0.1159 8.8088 3.1087 2.9926 3.8816 0.0500 0.1416 0.1309 8.1798 3.3442 3.2736 2.1555 0.1000 0.1935 0.1869 3.5507 4.0552 4.3199 -6.1273 0.2000 0.2351 0.2578 -8.7778 4.7006 5.9808 -21.4061 0.3000 0.2323 0.3049 -23.8126 4.7632 7.4746 -36.2743 0.4000 0.1972 0.3389 -41.7971 4.3929 8.8780 -50.5190 0.5000 0.1333 0.3636 -63.3397 3.5344 10.2786 -65.6138 0.6000 0.0414 0.3806 -89.1228 1.9330 11.6976 -83.4753 0.7000 -0.0774 0.3909 -119.7907 139.4079 13.1642 958.9892 0.8000 -0.2204 0.3946 -155.8560 95.8654 14.7124 551.5948 0.9000 -0.3829 0.3922 -197.6327 82.5387 16.3645 404.3768 1.0000 -0.5577 0.3840 -245.2333 76.3048 18.1499 320.4151 1.2500 -0.9898 0.3414 -389.9255 69.9027 23.4588 197.9802 1.5000 -1.3252 0.2785 -575.7629 67.5660 30.5835 120.9230 1.7500 -1.5264 0.2132 -815.8731 66.4246 40.7206 63.1229 2.0000 -1.6208 0.1581 -1125.198 65.7100 56.0638 17.2058 Figure 6. Specification errors in relation to the variance of the innovation to taul for LSVAR and QDSVAR Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth2.m with alpha=0 and alpha=.99 ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 Multiple, Impact of Hours in Var. of Response to 1% shock to Half-Life of taul Innovation to Technology Impulse response innov. ---------------------------- -------------------------- (=.01361^2) SVAR True %Error SVAR True %Error -------------------------------------------------------------------- (1) LSVAR, P(2,2)=.9523 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.4044 0.3840 5.3203 16.9828 18.1499 -6.4301 0.0500 0.4589 0.3840 19.5019 14.9219 18.1499 -17.7854 0.1000 0.5056 0.3840 31.6712 13.9618 18.1499 -23.0752 0.2000 0.5806 0.3840 51.2108 13.1610 18.1499 -27.4871 0.3000 0.6477 0.3840 68.6742 12.7693 18.1499 -29.6453 0.4000 0.7114 0.3840 85.2632 12.5227 18.1499 -31.0042 0.5000 0.7731 0.3840 101.3244 12.3448 18.1499 -31.9844 0.6000 0.8333 0.3840 117.0013 12.2082 18.1499 -32.7365 0.7000 0.8923 0.3840 132.3674 12.0993 18.1499 -33.3366 0.8000 0.9503 0.3840 147.4665 12.0100 18.1499 -33.8286 0.9000 1.0073 0.3840 162.3274 11.9395 18.1499 -34.2170 1.0000 1.0636 0.3840 176.9707 11.8802 18.1499 -34.5439 1.2500 1.2008 0.3840 212.7222 11.7646 18.1499 -35.1806 1.5000 1.3339 0.3840 247.3778 11.6806 18.1499 -35.6438 1.7500 1.4632 0.3840 281.0537 11.6168 18.1499 -35.9954 2.0000 1.5891 0.3840 313.8363 11.5668 18.1499 -36.2709 (2) QDSVAR 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3472 0.3840 -9.5874 48.1683 18.1499 165.3917 0.0500 0.3030 0.3840 -21.0885 50.2054 18.1499 176.6154 0.1000 0.2488 0.3840 -35.2105 46.7331 18.1499 157.4841 0.2000 0.1440 0.3840 -62.4979 28.6640 18.1499 57.9297 0.3000 0.0438 0.3840 -88.5927 2.9616 18.1499 -83.6825 0.4000 -0.0522 0.3840 -113.5985 131.6921 18.1499 625.5811 0.5000 -0.1444 0.3840 -137.6073 96.0050 18.1499 428.9569 0.6000 -0.2331 0.3840 -160.7003 86.3292 18.1499 375.6462 0.7000 -0.3185 0.3840 -182.9491 81.8077 18.1499 350.7340 0.8000 -0.4010 0.3840 -204.4175 79.1935 18.1499 336.3307 0.9000 -0.4806 0.3840 -225.1620 77.4948 18.1499 326.9712 1.0000 -0.5577 0.3840 -245.2333 76.3048 18.1499 320.4151 1.2500 -0.7402 0.3840 -292.7538 74.4777 18.1499 310.3482 1.5000 -0.9098 0.3840 -336.9375 73.4538 18.1499 304.7065 1.7500 -1.0685 0.3840 -378.2544 72.8105 18.1499 301.1625 2.0000 -1.2176 0.3840 -417.0803 72.3789 18.1499 298.7843 Figure 7. Specification errors in relation to the variance of the innovation to taul for LSVAR and QDSVAR, 3 values of P(2,2) Multiple, Impact of Hours in Var. of Response to 1% shock to Half-Life of taul Innovation to Technology Impulse response innov. ---------------------------- -------------------------- (=.01361^2) SVAR True %Error SVAR True %Error -------------------------------------------------------------------- (1) LSVAR, P(2,2)=.998 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3959 0.3840 3.0975 36.6611 18.1499 101.9910 0.0500 0.4324 0.3840 12.6099 81.8137 18.1499 350.7670 0.1000 0.4664 0.3840 21.4561 108.9258 18.1499 500.1463 0.2000 0.5208 0.3840 35.6149 134.4812 18.1499 640.9479 0.3000 0.5683 0.3840 48.0011 147.4953 18.1499 712.6514 0.4000 0.6129 0.3840 59.6195 155.7706 18.1499 758.2457 0.5000 0.6559 0.3840 70.7965 161.6628 18.1499 790.7098 0.6000 0.6976 0.3840 81.6714 166.1483 18.1499 815.4238 0.7000 0.7385 0.3840 92.3154 169.7160 18.1499 835.0803 0.8000 0.7786 0.3840 102.7690 172.6413 18.1499 851.1978 0.9000 0.8181 0.3840 113.0581 175.0943 18.1499 864.7132 1.0000 0.8571 0.3840 123.2001 177.1878 18.1499 876.2478 1.2500 0.9523 0.3840 147.9864 181.3042 18.1499 898.9277 1.5000 1.0447 0.3840 172.0548 184.3452 18.1499 915.6828 1.7500 1.1347 0.3840 195.4853 186.6899 18.1499 928.6011 2.0000 1.2224 0.3840 218.3344 188.5545 18.1499 938.8748 NOTE: for case with no measurement error, use estimate corresponding to multiple=.443 (==> 64.4% impact error and 1/2 life equal 158.3) (2) LSVAR, P(2,2)=.99 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3981 0.3840 3.6796 21.0278 18.1499 15.8566 0.0500 0.4402 0.3840 14.6479 27.2874 18.1499 50.3447 0.1000 0.4790 0.3840 24.7407 30.7761 18.1499 69.5665 0.2000 0.5418 0.3840 41.1019 33.9415 18.1499 87.0066 0.3000 0.5976 0.3840 55.6270 35.5307 18.1499 95.7626 0.4000 0.6503 0.3840 69.3533 36.5357 18.1499 101.3001 0.5000 0.7012 0.3840 82.6026 37.2487 18.1499 105.2283 0.6000 0.7508 0.3840 95.5109 37.7899 18.1499 108.2102 0.7000 0.7993 0.3840 108.1473 38.2188 18.1499 110.5731 0.8000 0.8469 0.3840 120.5523 38.5695 18.1499 112.5053 0.9000 0.8938 0.3840 132.7520 38.8606 18.1499 114.1094 1.0000 0.9399 0.3840 144.7647 39.1085 18.1499 115.4755 1.2500 1.0524 0.3840 174.0612 39.5938 18.1499 118.1490 1.5000 1.1613 0.3840 202.4167 39.9457 18.1499 120.0882 1.7500 1.2669 0.3840 229.9299 40.2165 18.1499 121.5802 2.0000 1.3696 0.3840 256.6747 40.4298 18.1499 122.7551 (3) LSVAR, P(2,2)=.9 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.4080 0.3840 6.2502 15.9501 18.1499 -12.1199 0.0500 0.4670 0.3840 21.6096 12.3849 18.1499 -31.7629 0.1000 0.5138 0.3840 33.8051 10.8467 18.1499 -40.2382 0.2000 0.5859 0.3840 52.5659 9.6126 18.1499 -47.0376 0.3000 0.6490 0.3840 69.0106 9.0013 18.1499 -50.4059 0.4000 0.7086 0.3840 84.5328 8.6337 18.1499 -52.4313 0.5000 0.7662 0.3840 99.5291 8.3608 18.1499 -53.9348 0.6000 0.8224 0.3840 114.1632 8.1458 18.1499 -55.1193 0.7000 0.8775 0.3840 128.5190 7.9735 18.1499 -56.0684 0.8000 0.9318 0.3840 142.6459 7.8433 18.1499 -56.7858 0.9000 0.9852 0.3840 156.5759 7.7328 18.1499 -57.3947 1.0000 1.0381 0.3840 170.3315 7.6377 18.1499 -57.9188 1.2500 1.1676 0.3840 204.0566 7.4488 18.1499 -58.9593 1.5000 1.2939 0.3840 236.9592 7.3083 18.1499 -59.7334 1.7500 1.4175 0.3840 269.1444 7.1998 18.1499 -60.3316 2.0000 1.5386 0.3840 300.6837 7.1135 18.1499 -60.8071 (1) QDSVAR, P(2,2)=.998 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3519 0.3840 -8.3564 40.9105 18.1499 125.4039 0.0500 0.3265 0.3840 -14.9770 47.6327 18.1499 162.4411 0.1000 0.2950 0.3840 -23.1847 46.7372 18.1499 157.5068 0.2000 0.2330 0.3840 -39.3153 41.6813 18.1499 129.6506 0.3000 0.1726 0.3840 -55.0585 31.7698 18.1499 75.0414 0.4000 0.1135 0.3840 -70.4300 8.5571 18.1499 -52.8534 0.5000 0.0559 0.3840 -85.4477 3.3118 18.1499 -81.7531 0.6000 -0.0005 0.3840 -100.1286 huge 18.1499 huge 0.7000 -0.0556 0.3840 -114.4887 130.3651 18.1499 618.2698 0.8000 -0.1096 0.3840 -128.5431 103.8844 18.1499 472.3698 0.9000 -0.1625 0.3840 -142.3058 93.1579 18.1499 413.2699 1.0000 -0.2142 0.3840 -155.7898 87.3161 18.1499 381.0837 1.2500 -0.3393 0.3840 -188.3589 80.1086 18.1499 341.3726 1.5000 -0.4586 0.3840 -219.4313 76.7258 18.1499 322.7342 1.7500 -0.5727 0.3840 -249.1530 74.7584 18.1499 311.8945 2.0000 -0.6822 0.3840 -277.6496 73.4708 18.1499 304.8002 (2) QDSVAR, P(2,2)=.99 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3507 0.3840 -8.6612 43.8128 18.1499 141.3942 0.0500 0.3207 0.3840 -16.4744 48.8682 18.1499 169.2480 0.1000 0.2836 0.3840 -26.1460 47.1852 18.1499 159.9752 0.2000 0.2110 0.3840 -45.0634 39.5966 18.1499 118.1643 0.3000 0.1405 0.3840 -63.4216 21.8204 18.1499 20.2235 0.4000 0.0720 0.3840 -81.2518 3.8017 18.1499 -79.0537 0.5000 0.0054 0.3840 -98.5850 huge 18.1499 huge 0.6000 -0.0593 0.3840 -115.4501 130.9917 18.1499 621.7222 0.7000 -0.1224 0.3840 -131.8738 103.5719 18.1499 470.6476 0.8000 -0.1839 0.3840 -147.8803 93.1228 18.1499 413.0764 0.9000 -0.2438 0.3840 -163.4922 87.5850 18.1499 382.5650 1.0000 -0.3023 0.3840 -178.7303 84.1501 18.1499 363.6399 1.2500 -0.4428 0.3840 -215.3117 79.4348 18.1499 337.6603 1.5000 -0.5757 0.3840 -249.9344 77.0170 18.1499 324.3390 1.7500 -0.7020 0.3840 -282.8170 75.5511 18.1499 316.2625 2.0000 -0.8223 0.3840 -314.1431 74.5676 18.1499 310.8433 (3) QDSVAR, P(2,2)=.9 0.0100 0.3451 0.3840 -10.1220 51.2163 18.1499 182.1852 0.0500 0.2931 0.3840 -23.6802 53.2601 18.1499 193.4460 0.1000 0.2293 0.3840 -40.2795 51.1685 18.1499 181.9221 0.2000 0.1066 0.3840 -72.2414 36.7612 18.1499 102.5426 0.3000 -0.0103 0.3840 -102.6802 183.5789 18.1499 911.4605 0.4000 -0.1219 0.3840 -131.7408 80.9338 18.1499 345.9190 0.5000 -0.2287 0.3840 -159.5494 72.9264 18.1499 301.8010 0.6000 -0.3311 0.3840 -186.2158 69.9652 18.1499 285.4855 0.7000 -0.4294 0.3840 -211.8362 68.4354 18.1499 277.0568 0.8000 -0.5241 0.3840 -236.4950 67.5074 18.1499 271.9440 0.9000 -0.6154 0.3840 -260.2666 66.8891 18.1499 268.5373 1.0000 -0.7036 0.3840 -283.2171 66.4530 18.1499 266.1347 1.2500 -0.9115 0.3840 -337.3731 65.7838 18.1499 262.4476 1.5000 -1.1041 0.3840 -387.5160 65.4220 18.1499 260.4544 1.7500 -1.2835 0.3840 -434.2395 65.2095 18.1499 259.2834 2.0000 -1.4516 0.3840 -478.0121 65.0814 18.1499 258.5776 Figure 8. Impulse Responses of Hours Using LSVAR Procedure in 2 or 3 Variable VARs (holding fixed Sbar,P(2,2),Q(1:2,1:2)) Codes: run truth3 with alpha=0 and (1) const=3, P(4,4)=9.686e-01, Q(4,4)=2.057e-02 (2) const=4, P(3,3)=.995, Q(3,3)=1.240e-02 (3) const=4, P(3,3)=.98, Q(3,3)=1.229e-02 in all cases, run the following afterward: ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 (1) Responses to 1% eps 1% TFP shock shock ----------------------- 0 7.6849e-01 8.7825e-01 1 7.2883e-01 8.3293e-01 2 6.9131e-01 7.9005e-01 3 6.5582e-01 7.4950e-01 4 6.1579e-01 7.0374e-01 5 5.7493e-01 6.5705e-01 6 5.3673e-01 6.1339e-01 7 5.0101e-01 5.7257e-01 8 4.6763e-01 5.3443e-01 9 4.3647e-01 4.9881e-01 10 4.0737e-01 4.6555e-01 11 3.8019e-01 4.3450e-01 12 3.5482e-01 4.0550e-01 13 3.3113e-01 3.7843e-01 14 3.0901e-01 3.5315e-01 15 2.8836e-01 3.2955e-01 16 2.6908e-01 3.0751e-01 17 2.5108e-01 2.8694e-01 18 2.3427e-01 2.6773e-01 19 2.1858e-01 2.4980e-01 20 2.0393e-01 2.3306e-01 21 1.9026e-01 2.1743e-01 22 1.7749e-01 2.0284e-01 23 1.6557e-01 1.8922e-01 24 1.5445e-01 1.7651e-01 25 1.4406e-01 1.6464e-01 26 1.3437e-01 1.5356e-01 27 1.2532e-01 1.4322e-01 28 1.1688e-01 1.3357e-01 29 1.0899e-01 1.2456e-01 30 1.0163e-01 1.1615e-01 31 9.4768e-02 1.0830e-01 32 8.8358e-02 1.0098e-01 33 8.2377e-02 9.4143e-02 34 7.6795e-02 8.7763e-02 35 7.1586e-02 8.1810e-02 36 6.6724e-02 7.6255e-02 37 6.2188e-02 7.1071e-02 38 5.7956e-02 6.6234e-02 39 5.4007e-02 6.1720e-02 40 5.0322e-02 5.7509e-02 41 4.6884e-02 5.3580e-02 42 4.3677e-02 4.9915e-02 43 4.0685e-02 4.6496e-02 44 3.7893e-02 4.3306e-02 45 3.5290e-02 4.0330e-02 46 3.2861e-02 3.7555e-02 47 3.0596e-02 3.4966e-02 48 2.8484e-02 3.2552e-02 49 2.6514e-02 3.0300e-02 50 2.4676e-02 2.8201e-02 51 2.2963e-02 2.6243e-02 52 2.1365e-02 2.4417e-02 53 1.9876e-02 2.2715e-02 54 1.8487e-02 2.1128e-02 55 1.7193e-02 1.9649e-02 56 1.5986e-02 1.8270e-02 57 1.4862e-02 1.6984e-02 58 1.3813e-02 1.5786e-02 59 1.2836e-02 1.4670e-02 60 1.1926e-02 1.3629e-02 61 1.1078e-02 1.2660e-02 62 1.0287e-02 1.1757e-02 63 9.5512e-03 1.0915e-02 64 8.8655e-03 1.0132e-02 65 8.2267e-03 9.4018e-03 66 7.6319e-03 8.7220e-03 67 7.0780e-03 8.0889e-03 68 6.5623e-03 7.4996e-03 69 6.0822e-03 6.9509e-03 70 5.6353e-03 6.4402e-03 71 5.2194e-03 5.9648e-03 72 4.8323e-03 5.5225e-03 73 4.4722e-03 5.1110e-03 74 4.1372e-03 4.7281e-03 75 3.8256e-03 4.3720e-03 76 3.5358e-03 4.0409e-03 77 3.2664e-03 3.7329e-03 78 3.0159e-03 3.4467e-03 79 2.7831e-03 3.1806e-03 80 2.5668e-03 2.9334e-03 81 2.3658e-03 2.7037e-03 82 2.1791e-03 2.4903e-03 83 2.0057e-03 2.2922e-03 84 1.8447e-03 2.1082e-03 85 1.6953e-03 1.9375e-03 86 1.5567e-03 1.7790e-03 87 1.4281e-03 1.6321e-03 88 1.3088e-03 1.4957e-03 89 1.1982e-03 1.3694e-03 90 1.0957e-03 1.2522e-03 91 1.0008e-03 1.1437e-03 92 9.1283e-04 1.0432e-03 93 8.3140e-04 9.5015e-04 94 7.5605e-04 8.6403e-04 95 6.8634e-04 7.8437e-04 96 6.2188e-04 7.1070e-04 97 5.6231e-04 6.4262e-04 98 5.0727e-04 5.7973e-04 99 4.5646e-04 5.2166e-04 100 4.0958e-04 4.6808e-04 (2) Responses to 1% eps 1% TFP shock shock ----------------------- 0 1.0033e+00 1.1467e+00 1 9.5688e-01 1.0935e+00 2 9.1267e-01 1.0430e+00 3 8.7062e-01 9.9497e-01 4 8.2504e-01 9.4288e-01 5 7.8084e-01 8.9237e-01 6 7.3916e-01 8.4473e-01 7 6.9984e-01 7.9980e-01 8 6.6279e-01 7.5746e-01 9 6.2792e-01 7.1761e-01 10 5.9510e-01 6.8010e-01 11 5.6421e-01 6.4480e-01 12 5.3514e-01 6.1157e-01 13 5.0777e-01 5.8029e-01 14 4.8200e-01 5.5084e-01 15 4.5773e-01 5.2311e-01 16 4.3488e-01 4.9700e-01 17 4.1336e-01 4.7240e-01 18 3.9309e-01 4.4923e-01 19 3.7399e-01 4.2741e-01 20 3.5599e-01 4.0684e-01 21 3.3903e-01 3.8746e-01 22 3.2305e-01 3.6919e-01 23 3.0797e-01 3.5196e-01 24 2.9376e-01 3.3572e-01 25 2.8036e-01 3.2040e-01 26 2.6772e-01 3.0596e-01 27 2.5579e-01 2.9232e-01 28 2.4453e-01 2.7946e-01 29 2.3391e-01 2.6731e-01 30 2.2387e-01 2.5585e-01 31 2.1440e-01 2.4502e-01 32 2.0545e-01 2.3479e-01 33 1.9699e-01 2.2513e-01 34 1.8900e-01 2.1600e-01 35 1.8145e-01 2.0736e-01 36 1.7430e-01 1.9920e-01 37 1.6754e-01 1.9147e-01 38 1.6115e-01 1.8416e-01 39 1.5509e-01 1.7724e-01 40 1.4936e-01 1.7069e-01 41 1.4393e-01 1.6449e-01 42 1.3878e-01 1.5860e-01 43 1.3390e-01 1.5303e-01 44 1.2928e-01 1.4774e-01 45 1.2489e-01 1.4273e-01 46 1.2072e-01 1.3797e-01 47 1.1677e-01 1.3345e-01 48 1.1301e-01 1.2915e-01 49 1.0944e-01 1.2507e-01 50 1.0605e-01 1.2119e-01 51 1.0282e-01 1.1750e-01 52 9.9744e-02 1.1399e-01 53 9.6818e-02 1.1065e-01 54 9.4030e-02 1.0746e-01 55 9.1373e-02 1.0442e-01 56 8.8839e-02 1.0153e-01 57 8.6421e-02 9.8765e-02 58 8.4113e-02 9.6127e-02 59 8.1908e-02 9.3607e-02 60 7.9800e-02 9.1198e-02 61 7.7785e-02 8.8895e-02 62 7.5856e-02 8.6691e-02 63 7.4010e-02 8.4581e-02 64 7.2241e-02 8.2559e-02 65 7.0545e-02 8.0621e-02 66 6.8918e-02 7.8762e-02 67 6.7357e-02 7.6977e-02 68 6.5857e-02 7.5264e-02 69 6.4416e-02 7.3617e-02 70 6.3031e-02 7.2034e-02 71 6.1698e-02 7.0510e-02 72 6.0414e-02 6.9043e-02 73 5.9177e-02 6.7630e-02 74 5.7985e-02 6.6267e-02 75 5.6835e-02 6.4953e-02 76 5.5725e-02 6.3685e-02 77 5.4653e-02 6.2459e-02 78 5.3617e-02 6.1275e-02 79 5.2615e-02 6.0130e-02 80 5.1646e-02 5.9022e-02 81 5.0707e-02 5.7950e-02 82 4.9798e-02 5.6911e-02 83 4.8917e-02 5.5903e-02 84 4.8062e-02 5.4926e-02 85 4.7232e-02 5.3978e-02 86 4.6427e-02 5.3058e-02 87 4.5644e-02 5.2163e-02 88 4.4883e-02 5.1294e-02 89 4.4143e-02 5.0448e-02 90 4.3423e-02 4.9626e-02 91 4.2722e-02 4.8825e-02 92 4.2040e-02 4.8044e-02 93 4.1374e-02 4.7284e-02 94 4.0725e-02 4.6542e-02 95 4.0092e-02 4.5819e-02 96 3.9475e-02 4.5113e-02 97 3.8872e-02 4.4424e-02 98 3.8283e-02 4.3751e-02 99 3.7707e-02 4.3093e-02 100 3.7144e-02 4.2450e-02 (3) Responses to 1% eps 1% TFP shock shock ----------------------- 0 1.1018e+00 1.2592e+00 1 1.0466e+00 1.1961e+00 2 9.9424e-01 1.1363e+00 3 9.4449e-01 1.0794e+00 4 8.8850e-01 1.0154e+00 5 8.3446e-01 9.5364e-01 6 7.8361e-01 8.9554e-01 7 7.3578e-01 8.4087e-01 8 6.9086e-01 7.8954e-01 9 6.4872e-01 7.4138e-01 10 6.0919e-01 6.9621e-01 11 5.7211e-01 6.5383e-01 12 5.3733e-01 6.1407e-01 13 5.0469e-01 5.7678e-01 14 4.7408e-01 5.4179e-01 15 4.4535e-01 5.0896e-01 16 4.1840e-01 4.7816e-01 17 3.9312e-01 4.4927e-01 18 3.6939e-01 4.2215e-01 19 3.4713e-01 3.9671e-01 20 3.2623e-01 3.7283e-01 21 3.0662e-01 3.5042e-01 22 2.8822e-01 3.2939e-01 23 2.7095e-01 3.0965e-01 24 2.5474e-01 2.9113e-01 25 2.3952e-01 2.7374e-01 26 2.2524e-01 2.5741e-01 27 2.1183e-01 2.4209e-01 28 1.9924e-01 2.2770e-01 29 1.8742e-01 2.1419e-01 30 1.7633e-01 2.0151e-01 31 1.6590e-01 1.8960e-01 32 1.5612e-01 1.7842e-01 33 1.4693e-01 1.6791e-01 34 1.3830e-01 1.5805e-01 35 1.3019e-01 1.4878e-01 36 1.2257e-01 1.4008e-01 37 1.1542e-01 1.3190e-01 38 1.0870e-01 1.2422e-01 39 1.0238e-01 1.1700e-01 40 9.6446e-02 1.1022e-01 41 9.0869e-02 1.0385e-01 42 8.5628e-02 9.7858e-02 43 8.0701e-02 9.2228e-02 44 7.6071e-02 8.6936e-02 45 7.1717e-02 8.1961e-02 46 6.7624e-02 7.7283e-02 47 6.3776e-02 7.2885e-02 48 6.0157e-02 6.8749e-02 49 5.6753e-02 6.4859e-02 50 5.3551e-02 6.1200e-02 51 5.0540e-02 5.7758e-02 52 4.7706e-02 5.4520e-02 53 4.5040e-02 5.1474e-02 54 4.2532e-02 4.8606e-02 55 4.0171e-02 4.5908e-02 56 3.7948e-02 4.3368e-02 57 3.5856e-02 4.0977e-02 58 3.3886e-02 3.8726e-02 59 3.2031e-02 3.6606e-02 60 3.0284e-02 3.4610e-02 61 2.8639e-02 3.2729e-02 62 2.7089e-02 3.0958e-02 63 2.5628e-02 2.9289e-02 64 2.4252e-02 2.7716e-02 65 2.2955e-02 2.6233e-02 66 2.1732e-02 2.4836e-02 67 2.0579e-02 2.3518e-02 68 1.9492e-02 2.2276e-02 69 1.8467e-02 2.1105e-02 70 1.7500e-02 1.9999e-02 71 1.6587e-02 1.8957e-02 72 1.5727e-02 1.7973e-02 73 1.4914e-02 1.7044e-02 74 1.4147e-02 1.6168e-02 75 1.3423e-02 1.5340e-02 76 1.2739e-02 1.4558e-02 77 1.2093e-02 1.3820e-02 78 1.1483e-02 1.3123e-02 79 1.0906e-02 1.2464e-02 80 1.0361e-02 1.1841e-02 81 9.8463e-03 1.1253e-02 82 9.3592e-03 1.0696e-02 83 8.8987e-03 1.0170e-02 84 8.4630e-03 9.6718e-03 85 8.0508e-03 9.2007e-03 86 7.6607e-03 8.7549e-03 87 7.2915e-03 8.3330e-03 88 6.9420e-03 7.9335e-03 89 6.6109e-03 7.5552e-03 90 6.2974e-03 7.1968e-03 91 6.0003e-03 6.8573e-03 92 5.7187e-03 6.5356e-03 93 5.4519e-03 6.2306e-03 94 5.1989e-03 5.9414e-03 95 4.9589e-03 5.6672e-03 96 4.7313e-03 5.4070e-03 97 4.5153e-03 5.1602e-03 98 4.3103e-03 4.9259e-03 99 4.1157e-03 4.7035e-03 100 3.9309e-03 4.4923e-03 Figure 9. Specification error in relation to the variance of the innovation to g and taux Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth3.m with alpha=0, varying Q(4,4) ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 Multiple, Impact of Hours in Var. of Response to 1% shock to Half-Life of g Innovation to Technology Impulse response innov. ---------------------------- -------------------------- (=.02057^2) SVAR True %Error SVAR True %Error -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.3962 0.3840 3.1873 17.6740 18.1499 -2.6219 0.0500 0.4376 0.3840 13.9711 16.3511 18.1499 -9.9110 0.1000 0.4815 0.3840 25.4028 15.2867 18.1499 -15.7751 0.2000 0.5503 0.3840 43.3161 14.0591 18.1499 -22.5388 0.3000 0.6018 0.3840 56.7112 13.3765 18.1499 -26.2997 0.4000 0.6417 0.3840 67.1041 12.9280 18.1499 -28.7711 0.5000 0.6735 0.3840 75.3997 12.6220 18.1499 -30.4569 0.6000 0.6995 0.3840 82.1718 12.3909 18.1499 -31.7303 0.7000 0.7212 0.3840 87.8021 12.2095 18.1499 -32.7295 0.8000 0.7394 0.3840 92.5544 12.0631 18.1499 -33.5364 0.9000 0.7550 0.3840 96.6172 11.9459 18.1499 -34.1820 1.0000 0.7685 0.3840 100.1283 11.8509 18.1499 -34.7055 1.2500 0.7953 0.3840 107.1135 11.6681 18.1499 -35.7124 1.5000 0.8153 0.3840 112.3060 11.5364 18.1499 -36.4383 1.7500 0.8306 0.3840 116.3030 11.4363 18.1499 -36.9899 2.0000 0.8427 0.3840 119.4631 11.3572 18.1499 -37.4255 Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth3.m with alpha=0, varying Q(3,3) (P(3,3)=.98) ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 Multiple, Impact of Hours in Var. of Response to 1% shock to Half-Life of taux Innovation to Technology Impulse response innov. ---------------------------- -------------------------- (=.01229^2) SVAR True %Error SVAR True %Error -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.3840 0.3840 0 18.1499 18.1499 0 0.0100 0.4171 0.3840 8.6200 17.2493 18.1499 -4.9619 0.0500 0.5216 0.3840 35.8406 15.3621 18.1499 -15.3596 0.1000 0.6133 0.3840 59.7208 14.3677 18.1499 -20.8387 0.2000 0.7331 0.3840 90.9192 13.5434 18.1499 -25.3803 0.3000 0.8128 0.3840 111.6711 13.1795 18.1499 -27.3850 0.4000 0.8732 0.3840 127.3969 12.9756 18.1499 -28.5087 0.5000 0.9227 0.3840 140.2956 12.8532 18.1499 -29.1831 0.6000 0.9655 0.3840 151.4303 12.7700 18.1499 -29.6413 0.7000 1.0037 0.3840 161.3784 12.7108 18.1499 -29.9677 0.8000 1.0386 0.3840 170.4811 12.6672 18.1499 -30.2079 0.9000 1.0712 0.3840 178.9536 12.6343 18.1499 -30.3889 1.0000 1.1018 0.3840 186.9383 12.6092 18.1499 -30.5274 1.2500 1.1725 0.3840 205.3458 12.5684 18.1499 -30.7524 1.5000 1.2372 0.3840 222.1843 12.5466 18.1499 -30.8725 1.7500 1.2976 0.3840 237.9205 12.5356 18.1499 -30.9328 2.0000 1.3548 0.3840 252.8170 12.5314 18.1499 -30.9563 Figure 10A. Histogram of Impulse Response of Hours to Technology Shock in Impact Period and Bounds for 95% of Impulse Response Functions Across 1000 Applications of the QDSVAR Procedure Applied to the Model Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=.99 A. Histogram of Impact Coefficients, found by Code: [N,X]= hist(Hrs_ir(1,1:1000),50); disp(sprintf('%15.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [X',X'/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)),N'/sum(N)]')) Results: -------- -1.4066 -1.6075 0.0020 -1.3696 -1.5653 0.0000 -1.3327 -1.5231 0.0010 -1.2958 -1.4809 0.0000 -1.2589 -1.4387 0.0070 -1.2220 -1.3966 0.0080 -1.1851 -1.3544 0.0070 -1.1482 -1.3122 0.0120 -1.1113 -1.2700 0.0150 -1.0744 -1.2279 0.0120 -1.0375 -1.1857 0.0130 -1.0006 -1.1435 0.0140 -0.9637 -1.1013 0.0150 -0.9268 -1.0591 0.0300 -0.8899 -1.0170 0.0400 -0.8530 -0.9748 0.0400 -0.8161 -0.9326 0.0320 -0.7791 -0.8904 0.0370 -0.7422 -0.8483 0.0420 -0.7053 -0.8061 0.0440 -0.6684 -0.7639 0.0390 -0.6315 -0.7217 0.0530 -0.5946 -0.6795 0.0490 -0.5577 -0.6374 0.0580 -0.5208 -0.5952 0.0450 -0.4839 -0.5530 0.0350 -0.4470 -0.5108 0.0520 -0.4101 -0.4687 0.0430 -0.3732 -0.4265 0.0410 -0.3363 -0.3843 0.0260 -0.2994 -0.3421 0.0360 -0.2625 -0.2999 0.0290 -0.2255 -0.2578 0.0260 -0.1886 -0.2156 0.0170 -0.1517 -0.1734 0.0130 -0.1148 -0.1312 0.0180 -0.0779 -0.0891 0.0100 -0.0410 -0.0469 0.0080 -0.0041 -0.0047 0.0040 0.0328 0.0375 0.0060 0.0697 0.0797 0.0060 0.1066 0.1218 0.0080 0.1435 0.1640 0.0010 0.1804 0.2062 0.0020 0.2173 0.2484 0.0010 0.2542 0.2905 0.0000 0.2911 0.3327 0.0010 0.3280 0.3749 0.0000 0.3650 0.4171 0.0010 0.4019 0.4593 0.0010 Code: i = find(adf>-3.44); i = i(1:min(1000,length(i))); [N,X]= hist(Hrs_ir(1,i),50); disp(sprintf('%15.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [X',X'/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)),N'/sum(N)]')) Results: -------- -1.3873 -1.5855 0.0010 -1.3508 -1.5437 0.0010 -1.3143 -1.5020 0.0010 -1.2778 -1.4603 0.0030 -1.2412 -1.4185 0.0080 -1.2047 -1.3768 0.0040 -1.1682 -1.3351 0.0050 -1.1317 -1.2933 0.0160 -1.0952 -1.2516 0.0120 -1.0587 -1.2099 0.0090 -1.0221 -1.1681 0.0130 -0.9856 -1.1264 0.0090 -0.9491 -1.0847 0.0200 -0.9126 -1.0429 0.0350 -0.8761 -1.0012 0.0360 -0.8395 -0.9595 0.0280 -0.8030 -0.9177 0.0300 -0.7665 -0.8760 0.0370 -0.7300 -0.8343 0.0490 -0.6935 -0.7925 0.0410 -0.6570 -0.7508 0.0430 -0.6204 -0.7091 0.0560 -0.5839 -0.6673 0.0550 -0.5474 -0.6256 0.0520 -0.5109 -0.5839 0.0510 -0.4744 -0.5421 0.0410 -0.4379 -0.5004 0.0450 -0.4013 -0.4587 0.0410 -0.3648 -0.4169 0.0370 -0.3283 -0.3752 0.0270 -0.2918 -0.3335 0.0350 -0.2553 -0.2917 0.0280 -0.2187 -0.2500 0.0240 -0.1822 -0.2083 0.0160 -0.1457 -0.1665 0.0150 -0.1092 -0.1248 0.0160 -0.0727 -0.0831 0.0110 -0.0362 -0.0413 0.0090 0.0004 0.0004 0.0090 0.0369 0.0421 0.0080 0.0734 0.0839 0.0080 0.1099 0.1256 0.0070 0.1464 0.1673 0.0010 0.1829 0.2091 0.0020 0.2195 0.2508 0.0010 0.2560 0.2925 0.0010 0.2925 0.3343 0.0010 0.3290 0.3760 0.0000 0.3655 0.4177 0.0010 0.4021 0.4595 0.0010 B. 95% of results lie in: Code: sHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)'); nHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)')/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); lb = round(.025*1000); ub = 1000-round(.025*1000); disp(sprintf('%8g %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [[0:100]',sHrsir(lb,:)',sHrsir(ub,:)', ... nHrsir(lb,:)',nHrsir(ub,:)']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.1726 0.0249 -1.3401 0.0285 1 -1.1826 0.0605 -1.3515 0.0692 2 -1.2403 0.0481 -1.4174 0.0550 3 -1.2779 0.0380 -1.4604 0.0435 4 -1.3014 0.0692 -1.4873 0.0790 5 -1.3034 0.0509 -1.4896 0.0582 6 -1.2847 0.0400 -1.4682 0.0457 7 -1.2771 0.0284 -1.4596 0.0324 8 -1.2632 0.0323 -1.4436 0.0369 9 -1.2420 0.0348 -1.4194 0.0398 10 -1.2268 0.0335 -1.4021 0.0383 11 -1.2192 0.0324 -1.3934 0.0370 12 -1.2075 0.0325 -1.3800 0.0372 13 -1.1931 0.0327 -1.3635 0.0374 14 -1.1807 0.0322 -1.3494 0.0368 15 -1.1698 0.0317 -1.3369 0.0363 16 -1.1583 0.0315 -1.3238 0.0360 17 -1.1462 0.0312 -1.3100 0.0357 18 -1.1347 0.0309 -1.2968 0.0353 19 -1.1236 0.0306 -1.2840 0.0349 20 -1.1124 0.0303 -1.2712 0.0346 21 -1.1011 0.0300 -1.2584 0.0343 22 -1.0901 0.0297 -1.2458 0.0339 23 -1.0793 0.0294 -1.2334 0.0336 24 -1.0685 0.0291 -1.2211 0.0332 25 -1.0578 0.0288 -1.2088 0.0329 26 -1.0472 0.0285 -1.1968 0.0326 27 -1.0367 0.0282 -1.1848 0.0323 28 -1.0264 0.0279 -1.1730 0.0319 29 -1.0161 0.0277 -1.1612 0.0316 30 -1.0059 0.0274 -1.1496 0.0313 31 -0.9959 0.0271 -1.1381 0.0310 32 -0.9859 0.0268 -1.1267 0.0307 33 -0.9761 0.0266 -1.1155 0.0304 34 -0.9663 0.0263 -1.1043 0.0301 35 -0.9566 0.0260 -1.0933 0.0298 36 -0.9471 0.0258 -1.0823 0.0295 37 -0.9376 0.0255 -1.0715 0.0292 38 -0.9282 0.0253 -1.0608 0.0289 39 -0.9189 0.0250 -1.0502 0.0286 40 -0.9097 0.0248 -1.0397 0.0283 41 -0.9006 0.0245 -1.0293 0.0280 42 -0.8916 0.0243 -1.0190 0.0277 43 -0.8827 0.0240 -1.0088 0.0275 44 -0.8739 0.0238 -0.9987 0.0272 45 -0.8652 0.0236 -0.9887 0.0269 46 -0.8565 0.0233 -0.9788 0.0266 47 -0.8479 0.0231 -0.9691 0.0264 48 -0.8395 0.0229 -0.9594 0.0261 49 -0.8311 0.0226 -0.9498 0.0259 50 -0.8228 0.0224 -0.9403 0.0256 51 -0.8145 0.0222 -0.9309 0.0253 52 -0.8064 0.0220 -0.9216 0.0251 53 -0.7983 0.0217 -0.9123 0.0248 54 -0.7903 0.0215 -0.9032 0.0246 55 -0.7824 0.0213 -0.8942 0.0243 56 -0.7746 0.0211 -0.8852 0.0241 57 -0.7669 0.0209 -0.8764 0.0239 58 -0.7592 0.0207 -0.8676 0.0236 59 -0.7516 0.0205 -0.8590 0.0234 60 -0.7441 0.0203 -0.8504 0.0232 61 -0.7366 0.0201 -0.8419 0.0229 62 -0.7293 0.0199 -0.8334 0.0227 63 -0.7220 0.0197 -0.8251 0.0225 64 -0.7148 0.0195 -0.8169 0.0222 65 -0.7076 0.0193 -0.8087 0.0220 66 -0.7005 0.0191 -0.8006 0.0218 67 -0.6935 0.0189 -0.7926 0.0216 68 -0.6866 0.0187 -0.7847 0.0214 69 -0.6797 0.0185 -0.7768 0.0211 70 -0.6729 0.0183 -0.7691 0.0209 71 -0.6662 0.0181 -0.7614 0.0207 72 -0.6595 0.0180 -0.7537 0.0205 73 -0.6530 0.0178 -0.7462 0.0203 74 -0.6464 0.0176 -0.7387 0.0201 75 -0.6400 0.0174 -0.7314 0.0199 76 -0.6336 0.0172 -0.7240 0.0197 77 -0.6272 0.0171 -0.7168 0.0195 78 -0.6209 0.0169 -0.7096 0.0193 79 -0.6147 0.0167 -0.7025 0.0191 80 -0.6086 0.0166 -0.6955 0.0189 81 -0.6025 0.0164 -0.6886 0.0187 82 -0.5965 0.0162 -0.6817 0.0186 83 -0.5905 0.0161 -0.6749 0.0184 84 -0.5846 0.0159 -0.6681 0.0182 85 -0.5788 0.0158 -0.6614 0.0180 86 -0.5730 0.0156 -0.6548 0.0178 87 -0.5672 0.0154 -0.6483 0.0176 88 -0.5616 0.0153 -0.6418 0.0175 89 -0.5560 0.0151 -0.6354 0.0173 90 -0.5504 0.0150 -0.6290 0.0171 91 -0.5449 0.0148 -0.6227 0.0170 92 -0.5394 0.0147 -0.6165 0.0168 93 -0.5341 0.0145 -0.6103 0.0166 94 -0.5287 0.0144 -0.6042 0.0165 95 -0.5234 0.0143 -0.5982 0.0163 96 -0.5182 0.0141 -0.5922 0.0161 97 -0.5130 0.0140 -0.5863 0.0160 98 -0.5079 0.0138 -0.5804 0.0158 99 -0.5028 0.0137 -0.5746 0.0156 100 -0.4978 0.0136 -0.5689 0.0155 Code: i = find(adf>-3.44); i = i(1:min(1000,length(i))); ndraw = length(i); sHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,i)'); nHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,i)')/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); lb = round(.025*ndraw); ub = ndraw-round(.025*ndraw); disp(sprintf('%8g %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [[0:100]',sHrsir(lb,:)',sHrsir(ub,:)', ... nHrsir(lb,:)',nHrsir(ub,:)']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.1472 0.0305 -1.3111 0.0349 1 -1.1635 0.0768 -1.3297 0.0877 2 -1.2172 0.0554 -1.3911 0.0633 3 -1.2357 0.0518 -1.4122 0.0592 4 -1.2420 0.0766 -1.4193 0.0876 5 -1.2208 0.0666 -1.3952 0.0762 6 -1.2074 0.0459 -1.3798 0.0525 7 -1.1974 0.0439 -1.3684 0.0502 8 -1.1920 0.0435 -1.3622 0.0497 9 -1.1844 0.0573 -1.3536 0.0654 10 -1.1645 0.0537 -1.3308 0.0614 11 -1.1597 0.0624 -1.3254 0.0713 12 -1.1533 0.0579 -1.3181 0.0661 13 -1.1418 0.0555 -1.3049 0.0635 14 -1.1290 0.0551 -1.2902 0.0629 15 -1.1188 0.0544 -1.2786 0.0622 16 -1.1087 0.0559 -1.2670 0.0639 17 -1.0974 0.0556 -1.2542 0.0635 18 -1.0863 0.0543 -1.2414 0.0620 19 -1.0757 0.0531 -1.2293 0.0606 20 -1.0650 0.0523 -1.2172 0.0598 21 -1.0543 0.0520 -1.2049 0.0594 22 -1.0438 0.0517 -1.1929 0.0591 23 -1.0334 0.0513 -1.1810 0.0586 24 -1.0231 0.0507 -1.1692 0.0580 25 -1.0128 0.0502 -1.1575 0.0573 26 -1.0027 0.0496 -1.1459 0.0567 27 -0.9927 0.0491 -1.1345 0.0561 28 -0.9827 0.0486 -1.1231 0.0556 29 -0.9729 0.0482 -1.1119 0.0551 30 -0.9632 0.0477 -1.1008 0.0545 31 -0.9536 0.0472 -1.0898 0.0540 32 -0.9440 0.0467 -1.0789 0.0534 33 -0.9346 0.0463 -1.0681 0.0529 34 -0.9252 0.0458 -1.0574 0.0524 35 -0.9160 0.0454 -1.0468 0.0518 36 -0.9068 0.0449 -1.0363 0.0513 37 -0.8978 0.0445 -1.0260 0.0508 38 -0.8888 0.0440 -1.0157 0.0503 39 -0.8799 0.0436 -1.0056 0.0498 40 -0.8711 0.0431 -0.9955 0.0493 41 -0.8624 0.0427 -0.9856 0.0488 42 -0.8538 0.0423 -0.9757 0.0483 43 -0.8452 0.0418 -0.9659 0.0478 44 -0.8368 0.0414 -0.9563 0.0473 45 -0.8284 0.0410 -0.9467 0.0469 46 -0.8201 0.0406 -0.9373 0.0464 47 -0.8119 0.0402 -0.9279 0.0459 48 -0.8038 0.0398 -0.9186 0.0455 49 -0.7958 0.0394 -0.9094 0.0450 50 -0.7878 0.0390 -0.9003 0.0446 51 -0.7799 0.0386 -0.8913 0.0441 52 -0.7721 0.0382 -0.8824 0.0437 53 -0.7644 0.0378 -0.8736 0.0433 54 -0.7568 0.0375 -0.8648 0.0428 55 -0.7492 0.0371 -0.8562 0.0424 56 -0.7417 0.0367 -0.8476 0.0420 57 -0.7343 0.0364 -0.8392 0.0415 58 -0.7269 0.0360 -0.8308 0.0411 59 -0.7197 0.0356 -0.8225 0.0407 60 -0.7125 0.0353 -0.8142 0.0403 61 -0.7053 0.0349 -0.8061 0.0399 62 -0.6983 0.0346 -0.7980 0.0395 63 -0.6913 0.0342 -0.7900 0.0391 64 -0.6844 0.0339 -0.7821 0.0387 65 -0.6776 0.0335 -0.7743 0.0383 66 -0.6708 0.0332 -0.7666 0.0380 67 -0.6641 0.0329 -0.7589 0.0376 68 -0.6574 0.0326 -0.7513 0.0372 69 -0.6509 0.0322 -0.7438 0.0368 70 -0.6443 0.0319 -0.7364 0.0365 71 -0.6379 0.0316 -0.7290 0.0361 72 -0.6315 0.0313 -0.7217 0.0357 73 -0.6252 0.0310 -0.7145 0.0354 74 -0.6190 0.0306 -0.7074 0.0350 75 -0.6128 0.0303 -0.7003 0.0347 76 -0.6066 0.0300 -0.6933 0.0343 77 -0.6006 0.0297 -0.6864 0.0340 78 -0.5946 0.0294 -0.6795 0.0336 79 -0.5886 0.0291 -0.6727 0.0333 80 -0.5827 0.0289 -0.6660 0.0330 81 -0.5769 0.0286 -0.6593 0.0326 82 -0.5711 0.0283 -0.6527 0.0323 83 -0.5654 0.0280 -0.6462 0.0320 84 -0.5598 0.0277 -0.6397 0.0317 85 -0.5542 0.0274 -0.6333 0.0314 86 -0.5486 0.0272 -0.6270 0.0310 87 -0.5431 0.0269 -0.6207 0.0307 88 -0.5377 0.0266 -0.6145 0.0304 89 -0.5323 0.0264 -0.6084 0.0301 90 -0.5270 0.0261 -0.6023 0.0298 91 -0.5217 0.0258 -0.5963 0.0295 92 -0.5165 0.0256 -0.5903 0.0292 93 -0.5114 0.0253 -0.5844 0.0289 94 -0.5062 0.0251 -0.5786 0.0286 95 -0.5012 0.0248 -0.5728 0.0284 96 -0.4962 0.0246 -0.5670 0.0281 97 -0.4912 0.0243 -0.5614 0.0278 98 -0.4863 0.0241 -0.5558 0.0275 99 -0.4814 0.0238 -0.5502 0.0272 100 -0.4766 0.0236 -0.5447 0.0270 Figure 10B. Mean Impulse Response of Hours and Mean of 95% Bootstrapped Confidence Bands Averaged across 1000 Applications of QDSVAR Procedure Applied to Model Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1 and alpha=.99 i = 1:1000; nHrsir = Hrs_ir/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrscilb = Hrs_cilb/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrsciub = Hrs_ciub/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); disp(sprintf('%8g %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f\n',[[0:100]', ... mean(Hrs_cilb(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ir(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ciub(:,i)')', ... mean(nHrscilb(:,i)')',mean(nHrsir(:,i)')',mean(nHrsciub(:,i)')']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.1150 -0.5868 -0.0077 -1.2743 -0.6707 -0.0088 1 -1.1606 -0.5851 0.0310 -1.3264 -0.6687 0.0354 2 -1.2080 -0.5915 0.0546 -1.3805 -0.6759 0.0624 3 -1.2487 -0.5963 0.0746 -1.4271 -0.6814 0.0853 4 -1.2809 -0.5970 0.0937 -1.4639 -0.6823 0.1071 5 -1.2657 -0.5926 0.0803 -1.4465 -0.6772 0.0917 6 -1.2608 -0.5900 0.0717 -1.4408 -0.6743 0.0819 7 -1.2489 -0.5849 0.0685 -1.4272 -0.6685 0.0783 8 -1.2459 -0.5818 0.0687 -1.4239 -0.6649 0.0786 9 -1.2352 -0.5748 0.0743 -1.4116 -0.6569 0.0849 10 -1.2265 -0.5685 0.0778 -1.4017 -0.6497 0.0889 11 -1.2159 -0.5627 0.0793 -1.3896 -0.6430 0.0906 12 -1.2068 -0.5572 0.0800 -1.3792 -0.6368 0.0914 13 -1.1949 -0.5516 0.0790 -1.3655 -0.6304 0.0903 14 -1.1839 -0.5462 0.0784 -1.3530 -0.6243 0.0897 15 -1.1724 -0.5408 0.0781 -1.3398 -0.6180 0.0893 16 -1.1613 -0.5354 0.0777 -1.3272 -0.6119 0.0888 17 -1.1498 -0.5300 0.0774 -1.3140 -0.6057 0.0885 18 -1.1386 -0.5247 0.0770 -1.3013 -0.5996 0.0880 19 -1.1274 -0.5194 0.0764 -1.2884 -0.5936 0.0873 20 -1.1163 -0.5143 0.0758 -1.2758 -0.5877 0.0866 21 -1.1052 -0.5091 0.0751 -1.2631 -0.5818 0.0858 22 -1.0943 -0.5040 0.0744 -1.2506 -0.5760 0.0850 23 -1.0834 -0.4990 0.0736 -1.2381 -0.5703 0.0842 24 -1.0726 -0.4940 0.0730 -1.2258 -0.5646 0.0834 25 -1.0619 -0.4891 0.0723 -1.2136 -0.5589 0.0826 26 -1.0513 -0.4842 0.0716 -1.2015 -0.5533 0.0818 27 -1.0408 -0.4793 0.0709 -1.1895 -0.5478 0.0810 28 -1.0305 -0.4745 0.0702 -1.1776 -0.5423 0.0803 29 -1.0202 -0.4698 0.0695 -1.1659 -0.5369 0.0795 30 -1.0100 -0.4651 0.0689 -1.1542 -0.5315 0.0787 31 -0.9999 -0.4604 0.0682 -1.1427 -0.5262 0.0779 32 -0.9899 -0.4558 0.0675 -1.1313 -0.5209 0.0772 33 -0.9800 -0.4513 0.0669 -1.1200 -0.5157 0.0764 34 -0.9702 -0.4468 0.0662 -1.1088 -0.5106 0.0756 35 -0.9605 -0.4423 0.0655 -1.0977 -0.5055 0.0749 36 -0.9509 -0.4379 0.0649 -1.0867 -0.5004 0.0741 37 -0.9414 -0.4335 0.0642 -1.0758 -0.4954 0.0734 38 -0.9320 -0.4292 0.0636 -1.0651 -0.4905 0.0727 39 -0.9227 -0.4249 0.0630 -1.0544 -0.4855 0.0720 40 -0.9134 -0.4206 0.0623 -1.0439 -0.4807 0.0712 41 -0.9043 -0.4164 0.0617 -1.0335 -0.4759 0.0705 42 -0.8953 -0.4122 0.0611 -1.0231 -0.4711 0.0698 43 -0.8863 -0.4081 0.0605 -1.0129 -0.4664 0.0691 44 -0.8774 -0.4040 0.0599 -1.0028 -0.4618 0.0684 45 -0.8687 -0.4000 0.0593 -0.9927 -0.4571 0.0678 46 -0.8600 -0.3960 0.0587 -0.9828 -0.4526 0.0671 47 -0.8514 -0.3920 0.0581 -0.9730 -0.4480 0.0664 48 -0.8429 -0.3881 0.0575 -0.9633 -0.4436 0.0657 49 -0.8344 -0.3842 0.0570 -0.9536 -0.4391 0.0651 50 -0.8261 -0.3804 0.0564 -0.9441 -0.4347 0.0644 51 -0.8178 -0.3766 0.0558 -0.9346 -0.4304 0.0638 52 -0.8097 -0.3728 0.0553 -0.9253 -0.4261 0.0632 53 -0.8016 -0.3691 0.0547 -0.9160 -0.4218 0.0625 54 -0.7935 -0.3654 0.0542 -0.9069 -0.4176 0.0619 55 -0.7856 -0.3618 0.0536 -0.8978 -0.4134 0.0613 56 -0.7778 -0.3581 0.0531 -0.8888 -0.4093 0.0607 57 -0.7700 -0.3546 0.0526 -0.8799 -0.4052 0.0601 58 -0.7623 -0.3510 0.0520 -0.8712 -0.4011 0.0595 59 -0.7547 -0.3475 0.0515 -0.8624 -0.3971 0.0589 60 -0.7471 -0.3440 0.0510 -0.8538 -0.3932 0.0583 61 -0.7396 -0.3406 0.0505 -0.8453 -0.3892 0.0577 62 -0.7322 -0.3372 0.0500 -0.8368 -0.3853 0.0571 63 -0.7249 -0.3338 0.0495 -0.8285 -0.3815 0.0565 64 -0.7177 -0.3305 0.0490 -0.8202 -0.3777 0.0560 65 -0.7105 -0.3272 0.0485 -0.8120 -0.3739 0.0554 66 -0.7034 -0.3239 0.0480 -0.8038 -0.3702 0.0549 67 -0.6964 -0.3207 0.0475 -0.7958 -0.3665 0.0543 68 -0.6894 -0.3174 0.0471 -0.7879 -0.3628 0.0538 69 -0.6825 -0.3143 0.0466 -0.7800 -0.3592 0.0532 70 -0.6757 -0.3111 0.0461 -0.7722 -0.3556 0.0527 71 -0.6689 -0.3080 0.0457 -0.7645 -0.3520 0.0522 72 -0.6622 -0.3049 0.0452 -0.7568 -0.3485 0.0517 73 -0.6556 -0.3019 0.0447 -0.7492 -0.3450 0.0511 74 -0.6490 -0.2989 0.0443 -0.7417 -0.3416 0.0506 75 -0.6426 -0.2959 0.0439 -0.7343 -0.3381 0.0501 76 -0.6361 -0.2929 0.0434 -0.7270 -0.3348 0.0496 77 -0.6298 -0.2900 0.0430 -0.7197 -0.3314 0.0491 78 -0.6235 -0.2871 0.0426 -0.7125 -0.3281 0.0486 79 -0.6172 -0.2842 0.0421 -0.7054 -0.3248 0.0481 80 -0.6111 -0.2814 0.0417 -0.6983 -0.3216 0.0477 81 -0.6050 -0.2786 0.0413 -0.6914 -0.3184 0.0472 82 -0.5989 -0.2758 0.0409 -0.6844 -0.3152 0.0467 83 -0.5929 -0.2730 0.0405 -0.6776 -0.3120 0.0462 84 -0.5870 -0.2703 0.0401 -0.6708 -0.3089 0.0458 85 -0.5811 -0.2676 0.0397 -0.6641 -0.3058 0.0453 86 -0.5753 -0.2649 0.0393 -0.6575 -0.3028 0.0449 87 -0.5695 -0.2623 0.0389 -0.6509 -0.2997 0.0444 88 -0.5639 -0.2596 0.0385 -0.6444 -0.2967 0.0440 89 -0.5582 -0.2570 0.0381 -0.6379 -0.2938 0.0435 90 -0.5526 -0.2545 0.0377 -0.6316 -0.2908 0.0431 91 -0.5471 -0.2519 0.0373 -0.6253 -0.2879 0.0427 92 -0.5416 -0.2494 0.0370 -0.6190 -0.2850 0.0422 93 -0.5362 -0.2469 0.0366 -0.6128 -0.2822 0.0418 94 -0.5309 -0.2444 0.0362 -0.6067 -0.2794 0.0414 95 -0.5255 -0.2420 0.0359 -0.6006 -0.2766 0.0410 96 -0.5203 -0.2396 0.0355 -0.5946 -0.2738 0.0406 97 -0.5151 -0.2372 0.0352 -0.5887 -0.2711 0.0402 98 -0.5099 -0.2348 0.0348 -0.5828 -0.2684 0.0398 99 -0.5048 -0.2325 0.0345 -0.5769 -0.2657 0.0394 100 -0.4998 -0.2301 0.0341 -0.5712 -0.2630 0.0390 Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1 and alpha=.99 i = find(adf>-3.44); i = i(1:min(1000,length(i))); nHrsir = Hrs_ir/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrscilb = Hrs_cilb/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrsciub = Hrs_ciub/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); disp(sprintf('%8g %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f\n',[[0:100]', ... mean(Hrs_cilb(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ir(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ciub(:,i)')', ... mean(nHrscilb(:,i)')',mean(nHrsir(:,i)')',mean(nHrsciub(:,i)')']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.0979 -0.5689 0.0072 -1.2547 -0.6501 0.0082 1 -1.1393 -0.5632 0.0491 -1.3020 -0.6436 0.0561 2 -1.1851 -0.5680 0.0737 -1.3543 -0.6491 0.0843 3 -1.2214 -0.5705 0.0945 -1.3958 -0.6520 0.1081 4 -1.2554 -0.5742 0.1105 -1.4347 -0.6563 0.1263 5 -1.2398 -0.5699 0.0971 -1.4169 -0.6514 0.1110 6 -1.2347 -0.5681 0.0881 -1.4110 -0.6492 0.1007 7 -1.2230 -0.5637 0.0849 -1.3977 -0.6442 0.0970 8 -1.2197 -0.5607 0.0850 -1.3939 -0.6408 0.0972 9 -1.2088 -0.5538 0.0908 -1.3815 -0.6329 0.1038 10 -1.2006 -0.5480 0.0939 -1.3721 -0.6263 0.1074 11 -1.1901 -0.5424 0.0951 -1.3601 -0.6198 0.1087 12 -1.1812 -0.5370 0.0958 -1.3499 -0.6137 0.1094 13 -1.1694 -0.5317 0.0946 -1.3364 -0.6076 0.1081 14 -1.1587 -0.5265 0.0939 -1.3242 -0.6017 0.1073 15 -1.1474 -0.5212 0.0934 -1.3113 -0.5956 0.1068 16 -1.1365 -0.5160 0.0930 -1.2989 -0.5897 0.1062 17 -1.1252 -0.5108 0.0924 -1.2860 -0.5838 0.1057 18 -1.1143 -0.5057 0.0919 -1.2735 -0.5779 0.1050 19 -1.1033 -0.5006 0.0911 -1.2609 -0.5721 0.1041 20 -1.0925 -0.4956 0.0903 -1.2485 -0.5664 0.1032 21 -1.0816 -0.4907 0.0895 -1.2361 -0.5608 0.1022 22 -1.0709 -0.4858 0.0886 -1.2239 -0.5552 0.1013 23 -1.0602 -0.4809 0.0878 -1.2117 -0.5496 0.1003 24 -1.0497 -0.4761 0.0870 -1.1996 -0.5441 0.0994 25 -1.0392 -0.4713 0.0861 -1.1877 -0.5387 0.0984 26 -1.0289 -0.4666 0.0853 -1.1758 -0.5333 0.0975 27 -1.0186 -0.4620 0.0845 -1.1641 -0.5280 0.0966 28 -1.0084 -0.4574 0.0837 -1.1525 -0.5227 0.0956 29 -0.9984 -0.4528 0.0828 -1.1410 -0.5174 0.0947 30 -0.9884 -0.4483 0.0820 -1.1295 -0.5123 0.0937 31 -0.9785 -0.4438 0.0812 -1.1183 -0.5072 0.0928 32 -0.9687 -0.4393 0.0804 -1.1071 -0.5021 0.0919 33 -0.9590 -0.4349 0.0796 -1.0960 -0.4971 0.0910 34 -0.9495 -0.4306 0.0788 -1.0851 -0.4921 0.0901 35 -0.9400 -0.4263 0.0780 -1.0742 -0.4872 0.0892 36 -0.9306 -0.4220 0.0773 -1.0635 -0.4823 0.0883 37 -0.9213 -0.4178 0.0765 -1.0528 -0.4775 0.0874 38 -0.9121 -0.4136 0.0757 -1.0423 -0.4727 0.0865 39 -0.9029 -0.4095 0.0750 -1.0319 -0.4680 0.0857 40 -0.8939 -0.4054 0.0742 -1.0216 -0.4633 0.0848 41 -0.8850 -0.4013 0.0735 -1.0114 -0.4587 0.0840 42 -0.8761 -0.3973 0.0727 -1.0013 -0.4541 0.0831 43 -0.8674 -0.3933 0.0720 -0.9912 -0.4495 0.0823 44 -0.8587 -0.3894 0.0713 -0.9813 -0.4450 0.0815 45 -0.8501 -0.3855 0.0706 -0.9715 -0.4406 0.0807 46 -0.8416 -0.3817 0.0699 -0.9618 -0.4362 0.0799 47 -0.8332 -0.3778 0.0692 -0.9522 -0.4318 0.0791 48 -0.8248 -0.3741 0.0685 -0.9427 -0.4275 0.0783 49 -0.8166 -0.3703 0.0678 -0.9332 -0.4232 0.0775 50 -0.8084 -0.3666 0.0671 -0.9239 -0.4190 0.0767 51 -0.8003 -0.3630 0.0665 -0.9147 -0.4148 0.0760 52 -0.7923 -0.3593 0.0658 -0.9055 -0.4107 0.0752 53 -0.7844 -0.3557 0.0651 -0.8965 -0.4065 0.0744 54 -0.7766 -0.3522 0.0645 -0.8875 -0.4025 0.0737 55 -0.7688 -0.3487 0.0638 -0.8786 -0.3985 0.0730 56 -0.7611 -0.3452 0.0632 -0.8698 -0.3945 0.0722 57 -0.7535 -0.3417 0.0626 -0.8611 -0.3905 0.0715 58 -0.7460 -0.3383 0.0619 -0.8525 -0.3866 0.0708 59 -0.7385 -0.3349 0.0613 -0.8440 -0.3828 0.0701 60 -0.7311 -0.3316 0.0607 -0.8356 -0.3789 0.0694 61 -0.7238 -0.3283 0.0601 -0.8272 -0.3751 0.0687 62 -0.7166 -0.3250 0.0595 -0.8189 -0.3714 0.0680 63 -0.7094 -0.3217 0.0589 -0.8107 -0.3677 0.0673 64 -0.7023 -0.3185 0.0583 -0.8026 -0.3640 0.0666 65 -0.6953 -0.3153 0.0577 -0.7946 -0.3604 0.0660 66 -0.6883 -0.3122 0.0572 -0.7867 -0.3568 0.0653 67 -0.6815 -0.3090 0.0566 -0.7788 -0.3532 0.0647 68 -0.6746 -0.3060 0.0560 -0.7710 -0.3497 0.0640 69 -0.6679 -0.3029 0.0555 -0.7633 -0.3462 0.0634 70 -0.6612 -0.2999 0.0549 -0.7557 -0.3427 0.0627 71 -0.6546 -0.2969 0.0544 -0.7481 -0.3393 0.0621 72 -0.6481 -0.2939 0.0538 -0.7406 -0.3359 0.0615 73 -0.6416 -0.2910 0.0533 -0.7332 -0.3325 0.0609 74 -0.6352 -0.2881 0.0527 -0.7259 -0.3292 0.0603 75 -0.6288 -0.2852 0.0522 -0.7186 -0.3259 0.0597 76 -0.6225 -0.2823 0.0517 -0.7114 -0.3226 0.0591 77 -0.6163 -0.2795 0.0512 -0.7043 -0.3194 0.0585 78 -0.6101 -0.2767 0.0507 -0.6973 -0.3162 0.0579 79 -0.6040 -0.2739 0.0502 -0.6903 -0.3131 0.0573 80 -0.5980 -0.2712 0.0497 -0.6834 -0.3099 0.0567 81 -0.5920 -0.2685 0.0492 -0.6766 -0.3068 0.0562 82 -0.5861 -0.2658 0.0487 -0.6698 -0.3038 0.0556 83 -0.5802 -0.2631 0.0482 -0.6631 -0.3007 0.0551 84 -0.5744 -0.2605 0.0477 -0.6565 -0.2977 0.0545 85 -0.5687 -0.2579 0.0472 -0.6499 -0.2947 0.0540 86 -0.5630 -0.2553 0.0468 -0.6434 -0.2918 0.0534 87 -0.5574 -0.2528 0.0463 -0.6370 -0.2889 0.0529 88 -0.5518 -0.2502 0.0458 -0.6306 -0.2860 0.0524 89 -0.5463 -0.2477 0.0454 -0.6243 -0.2831 0.0518 90 -0.5408 -0.2453 0.0449 -0.6181 -0.2803 0.0513 91 -0.5354 -0.2428 0.0445 -0.6119 -0.2775 0.0508 92 -0.5301 -0.2404 0.0440 -0.6058 -0.2747 0.0503 93 -0.5248 -0.2380 0.0436 -0.5997 -0.2720 0.0498 94 -0.5195 -0.2356 0.0431 -0.5937 -0.2692 0.0493 95 -0.5143 -0.2332 0.0427 -0.5878 -0.2666 0.0488 96 -0.5092 -0.2309 0.0423 -0.5819 -0.2639 0.0483 97 -0.5041 -0.2286 0.0419 -0.5761 -0.2613 0.0478 98 -0.4990 -0.2263 0.0414 -0.5703 -0.2586 0.0474 99 -0.4940 -0.2241 0.0410 -0.5646 -0.2561 0.0469 100 -0.4891 -0.2218 0.0406 -0.5590 -0.2535 0.0464 Figure 11A. Histogram of Impulse Response of Hours to Technology Shock in Impact Period and Bounds for 95% of Impulse Response Functions Across 1000 Applications of the LSVAR Procedure Applied to the Model Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 A. Histogram of Impact Coefficients, found by Code: [N,X]= hist(Hrs_ir(1,1:1000),50); disp(sprintf('%15.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [X',X'/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)),N'/sum(N)]')) Results: -------- -1.9193 -2.1935 0.0050 -1.8450 -2.1085 0.0070 -1.7707 -2.0236 0.0060 -1.6964 -1.9387 0.0100 -1.6220 -1.8537 0.0070 -1.5477 -1.7688 0.0060 -1.4734 -1.6839 0.0000 -1.3991 -1.5989 0.0000 -1.3248 -1.5140 0.0000 -1.2504 -1.4290 0.0000 -1.1761 -1.3441 0.0000 -1.1018 -1.2592 0.0010 -1.0275 -1.1742 0.0020 -0.9532 -1.0893 0.0010 -0.8789 -1.0044 0.0010 -0.8045 -0.9194 0.0010 -0.7302 -0.8345 0.0010 -0.6559 -0.7496 0.0050 -0.5816 -0.6646 0.0040 -0.5073 -0.5797 0.0020 -0.4329 -0.4948 0.0060 -0.3586 -0.4098 0.0120 -0.2843 -0.3249 0.0100 -0.2100 -0.2400 0.0070 -0.1357 -0.1550 0.0120 -0.0613 -0.0701 0.0140 0.0130 0.0148 0.0210 0.0873 0.0998 0.0210 0.1616 0.1847 0.0320 0.2359 0.2696 0.0300 0.3102 0.3546 0.0310 0.3846 0.4395 0.0270 0.4589 0.5244 0.0320 0.5332 0.6094 0.0340 0.6075 0.6943 0.0360 0.6818 0.7792 0.0350 0.7562 0.8642 0.0500 0.8305 0.9491 0.0400 0.9048 1.0340 0.0500 0.9791 1.1190 0.0430 1.0534 1.2039 0.0500 1.1277 1.2888 0.0610 1.2021 1.3738 0.0530 1.2764 1.4587 0.0440 1.3507 1.5436 0.0570 1.4250 1.6286 0.0470 1.4993 1.7135 0.0310 1.5737 1.7984 0.0250 1.6480 1.8834 0.0250 1.7223 1.9683 0.0050 Code: ../../rbc/monte/montechk_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 A. Histogram of Impact Coefficients, found by Code: [N,X]= hist(Hrs_ir(1,1:1000),50); disp(sprintf('%15.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [X',X'/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)),N'/sum(N)]')) Results: -------- -1.0737 -1.2270 0.0020 -1.0124 -1.1571 0.0010 -0.9512 -1.0871 0.0010 -0.8900 -1.0171 0.0010 -0.8288 -0.9472 0.0010 -0.7676 -0.8772 0.0000 -0.7064 -0.8073 0.0010 -0.6452 -0.7373 0.0050 -0.5839 -0.6673 0.0010 -0.5227 -0.5974 0.0050 -0.4615 -0.5274 0.0040 -0.4003 -0.4575 0.0050 -0.3391 -0.3875 0.0100 -0.2779 -0.3176 0.0090 -0.2167 -0.2476 0.0060 -0.1554 -0.1776 0.0070 -0.0942 -0.1077 0.0130 -0.0330 -0.0377 0.0120 0.0282 0.0322 0.0210 0.0894 0.1022 0.0160 0.1506 0.1722 0.0250 0.2119 0.2421 0.0200 0.2731 0.3121 0.0290 0.3343 0.3820 0.0210 0.3955 0.4520 0.0260 0.4567 0.5219 0.0260 0.5179 0.5919 0.0330 0.5791 0.6619 0.0220 0.6404 0.7318 0.0340 0.7016 0.8018 0.0280 0.7628 0.8717 0.0430 0.8240 0.9417 0.0340 0.8852 1.0117 0.0360 0.9464 1.0816 0.0420 1.0076 1.1516 0.0360 1.0689 1.2215 0.0370 1.1301 1.2915 0.0560 1.1913 1.3614 0.0430 1.2525 1.4314 0.0400 1.3137 1.5014 0.0380 1.3749 1.5713 0.0500 1.4361 1.6413 0.0340 1.4974 1.7112 0.0240 1.5586 1.7812 0.0320 1.6198 1.8511 0.0280 1.6810 1.9211 0.0190 1.7422 1.9911 0.0070 1.8034 2.0610 0.0050 1.8647 2.1310 0.0080 1.9259 2.2009 0.0030 B. 95% of results lie in: Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 sHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)'); nHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)')/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); lb = round(.025*1000); ub = 1000-round(.025*1000); disp(sprintf('%8g %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [[0:100]',sHrsir(lb,:)',sHrsir(ub,:)', ... nHrsir(lb,:)',nHrsir(ub,:)']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.6835 1.6155 -1.9240 1.8462 1 -1.5441 1.5865 -1.7647 1.8130 2 -1.4524 1.5587 -1.6599 1.7813 3 -1.3921 1.5159 -1.5909 1.7324 4 -1.3407 1.4415 -1.5321 1.6474 5 -1.2682 1.3468 -1.4494 1.5391 6 -1.2373 1.2689 -1.4140 1.4502 7 -1.1737 1.2005 -1.3414 1.3720 8 -1.1277 1.1475 -1.2888 1.3115 9 -1.0999 1.0882 -1.2570 1.2436 10 -1.0432 1.0318 -1.1922 1.1791 11 -0.9812 0.9894 -1.1213 1.1307 12 -0.9301 0.9542 -1.0630 1.0904 13 -0.9081 0.9185 -1.0378 1.0497 14 -0.8810 0.8759 -1.0068 1.0010 15 -0.8546 0.8213 -0.9767 0.9386 16 -0.8166 0.7838 -0.9333 0.8958 17 -0.7791 0.7684 -0.8904 0.8781 18 -0.7433 0.7340 -0.8495 0.8388 19 -0.7092 0.7061 -0.8105 0.8069 20 -0.6766 0.6745 -0.7732 0.7709 21 -0.6455 0.6555 -0.7377 0.7491 22 -0.6168 0.6286 -0.7049 0.7184 23 -0.5946 0.6122 -0.6796 0.6996 24 -0.5733 0.5962 -0.6552 0.6814 25 -0.5528 0.5766 -0.6317 0.6589 26 -0.5329 0.5535 -0.6091 0.6325 27 -0.5138 0.5286 -0.5872 0.6041 28 -0.4954 0.5032 -0.5662 0.5751 29 -0.4776 0.4861 -0.5458 0.5555 30 -0.4572 0.4652 -0.5225 0.5316 31 -0.4408 0.4426 -0.5038 0.5058 32 -0.4250 0.4212 -0.4857 0.4813 33 -0.4098 0.4007 -0.4683 0.4580 34 -0.3951 0.3813 -0.4516 0.4358 35 -0.3836 0.3682 -0.4384 0.4208 36 -0.3686 0.3555 -0.4213 0.4063 37 -0.3542 0.3432 -0.4048 0.3923 38 -0.3415 0.3314 -0.3903 0.3787 39 -0.3293 0.3200 -0.3763 0.3657 40 -0.3159 0.3068 -0.3610 0.3506 41 -0.3021 0.2934 -0.3452 0.3353 42 -0.2889 0.2806 -0.3302 0.3207 43 -0.2763 0.2684 -0.3157 0.3067 44 -0.2642 0.2567 -0.3020 0.2934 45 -0.2527 0.2472 -0.2888 0.2825 46 -0.2417 0.2389 -0.2762 0.2730 47 -0.2311 0.2309 -0.2641 0.2639 48 -0.2210 0.2231 -0.2526 0.2550 49 -0.2114 0.2157 -0.2416 0.2465 50 -0.2022 0.2075 -0.2310 0.2372 51 -0.1934 0.1992 -0.2210 0.2277 52 -0.1849 0.1912 -0.2113 0.2185 53 -0.1768 0.1836 -0.2021 0.2098 54 -0.1691 0.1762 -0.1933 0.2014 55 -0.1617 0.1692 -0.1849 0.1933 56 -0.1547 0.1624 -0.1768 0.1856 57 -0.1479 0.1559 -0.1691 0.1781 58 -0.1415 0.1496 -0.1617 0.1710 59 -0.1353 0.1442 -0.1546 0.1648 60 -0.1294 0.1395 -0.1479 0.1594 61 -0.1238 0.1355 -0.1414 0.1548 62 -0.1184 0.1315 -0.1353 0.1503 63 -0.1132 0.1277 -0.1294 0.1460 64 -0.1083 0.1240 -0.1237 0.1417 65 -0.1035 0.1204 -0.1183 0.1376 66 -0.0990 0.1163 -0.1132 0.1329 67 -0.0947 0.1115 -0.1082 0.1275 68 -0.0907 0.1072 -0.1036 0.1225 69 -0.0870 0.1040 -0.0994 0.1189 70 -0.0835 0.0998 -0.0954 0.1140 71 -0.0801 0.0959 -0.0916 0.1096 72 -0.0769 0.0927 -0.0879 0.1060 73 -0.0738 0.0896 -0.0844 0.1024 74 -0.0708 0.0866 -0.0810 0.0990 75 -0.0680 0.0837 -0.0777 0.0957 76 -0.0652 0.0809 -0.0746 0.0925 77 -0.0626 0.0782 -0.0716 0.0894 78 -0.0601 0.0756 -0.0687 0.0864 79 -0.0577 0.0727 -0.0659 0.0831 80 -0.0553 0.0699 -0.0633 0.0798 81 -0.0531 0.0671 -0.0607 0.0767 82 -0.0510 0.0646 -0.0583 0.0738 83 -0.0489 0.0629 -0.0559 0.0718 84 -0.0470 0.0612 -0.0537 0.0699 85 -0.0451 0.0592 -0.0515 0.0677 86 -0.0432 0.0570 -0.0494 0.0652 87 -0.0415 0.0549 -0.0474 0.0627 88 -0.0398 0.0528 -0.0455 0.0604 89 -0.0382 0.0509 -0.0437 0.0581 90 -0.0367 0.0490 -0.0419 0.0560 91 -0.0352 0.0471 -0.0402 0.0539 92 -0.0337 0.0454 -0.0385 0.0518 93 -0.0323 0.0437 -0.0369 0.0499 94 -0.0311 0.0420 -0.0355 0.0480 95 -0.0298 0.0405 -0.0340 0.0463 96 -0.0285 0.0390 -0.0326 0.0445 97 -0.0273 0.0375 -0.0312 0.0429 98 -0.0262 0.0361 -0.0299 0.0413 99 -0.0251 0.0348 -0.0287 0.0397 100 -0.0241 0.0335 -0.0275 0.0382 Code: ../../rbc/monte/montechk_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 sHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)'); nHrsir = sort(Hrs_ir(:,1:1000)')/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); lb = round(.025*1000); ub = 1000-round(.025*1000); disp(sprintf('%8g %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f %10.4f\n', ... [[0:100]',sHrsir(lb,:)',sHrsir(ub,:)', ... nHrsir(lb,:)',nHrsir(ub,:)']')) Results: -------- 0 -0.3914 1.6978 -0.4473 1.9403 1 -0.3777 1.6817 -0.4316 1.9219 2 -0.3446 1.6209 -0.3938 1.8524 3 -0.3995 1.5803 -0.4565 1.8060 4 -0.3527 1.5084 -0.4031 1.7238 5 -0.3197 1.4412 -0.3654 1.6471 6 -0.3193 1.3862 -0.3649 1.5842 7 -0.2958 1.3223 -0.3381 1.5112 8 -0.2387 1.2513 -0.2728 1.4300 9 -0.2203 1.2051 -0.2518 1.3772 10 -0.1969 1.1568 -0.2250 1.3220 11 -0.1809 1.1142 -0.2067 1.2733 12 -0.1633 1.0680 -0.1866 1.2205 13 -0.1428 1.0260 -0.1632 1.1726 14 -0.1348 0.9948 -0.1540 1.1369 15 -0.1290 0.9591 -0.1474 1.0961 16 -0.1136 0.9216 -0.1298 1.0532 17 -0.0967 0.8865 -0.1105 1.0132 18 -0.0827 0.8446 -0.0945 0.9653 19 -0.0757 0.8082 -0.0865 0.9236 20 -0.0706 0.7829 -0.0807 0.8947 21 -0.0645 0.7511 -0.0737 0.8583 22 -0.0601 0.7240 -0.0686 0.8274 23 -0.0564 0.6940 -0.0645 0.7931 24 -0.0511 0.6674 -0.0584 0.7627 25 -0.0475 0.6431 -0.0543 0.7350 26 -0.0419 0.6203 -0.0478 0.7089 27 -0.0373 0.5964 -0.0426 0.6815 28 -0.0358 0.5747 -0.0409 0.6568 29 -0.0343 0.5566 -0.0392 0.6361 30 -0.0313 0.5368 -0.0357 0.6135 31 -0.0283 0.5178 -0.0323 0.5917 32 -0.0262 0.5010 -0.0300 0.5726 33 -0.0248 0.4852 -0.0283 0.5545 34 -0.0234 0.4698 -0.0268 0.5369 35 -0.0221 0.4537 -0.0253 0.5185 36 -0.0203 0.4372 -0.0232 0.4997 37 -0.0184 0.4212 -0.0210 0.4813 38 -0.0167 0.4057 -0.0191 0.4637 39 -0.0151 0.3940 -0.0173 0.4503 40 -0.0138 0.3830 -0.0158 0.4377 41 -0.0125 0.3724 -0.0142 0.4255 42 -0.0113 0.3620 -0.0129 0.4137 43 -0.0102 0.3517 -0.0117 0.4020 44 -0.0093 0.3406 -0.0106 0.3893 45 -0.0084 0.3298 -0.0096 0.3769 46 -0.0077 0.3194 -0.0088 0.3650 47 -0.0069 0.3093 -0.0079 0.3534 48 -0.0063 0.2995 -0.0072 0.3423 49 -0.0057 0.2900 -0.0065 0.3314 50 -0.0052 0.2802 -0.0059 0.3202 51 -0.0047 0.2719 -0.0054 0.3108 52 -0.0043 0.2633 -0.0049 0.3009 53 -0.0040 0.2550 -0.0045 0.2914 54 -0.0037 0.2469 -0.0043 0.2822 55 -0.0035 0.2391 -0.0040 0.2733 56 -0.0033 0.2315 -0.0038 0.2646 57 -0.0030 0.2242 -0.0034 0.2562 58 -0.0027 0.2171 -0.0031 0.2481 59 -0.0025 0.2102 -0.0028 0.2403 60 -0.0024 0.2036 -0.0027 0.2327 61 -0.0023 0.1971 -0.0026 0.2253 62 -0.0022 0.1909 -0.0025 0.2182 63 -0.0020 0.1849 -0.0023 0.2113 64 -0.0019 0.1790 -0.0022 0.2046 65 -0.0018 0.1733 -0.0020 0.1981 66 -0.0017 0.1679 -0.0019 0.1918 67 -0.0016 0.1625 -0.0019 0.1858 68 -0.0015 0.1574 -0.0018 0.1799 69 -0.0015 0.1524 -0.0017 0.1742 70 -0.0014 0.1476 -0.0016 0.1687 71 -0.0013 0.1429 -0.0015 0.1633 72 -0.0013 0.1384 -0.0014 0.1582 73 -0.0012 0.1340 -0.0014 0.1532 74 -0.0011 0.1298 -0.0012 0.1483 75 -0.0010 0.1257 -0.0011 0.1436 76 -0.0009 0.1217 -0.0010 0.1391 77 -0.0008 0.1178 -0.0009 0.1347 78 -0.0008 0.1141 -0.0009 0.1304 79 -0.0007 0.1105 -0.0008 0.1263 80 -0.0006 0.1070 -0.0007 0.1223 81 -0.0006 0.1036 -0.0007 0.1184 82 -0.0005 0.1003 -0.0006 0.1147 83 -0.0005 0.0972 -0.0005 0.1110 84 -0.0004 0.0941 -0.0005 0.1075 85 -0.0004 0.0911 -0.0005 0.1041 86 -0.0004 0.0882 -0.0004 0.1008 87 -0.0003 0.0854 -0.0004 0.0976 88 -0.0003 0.0827 -0.0003 0.0945 89 -0.0003 0.0801 -0.0003 0.0915 90 -0.0003 0.0776 -0.0003 0.0886 91 -0.0002 0.0751 -0.0003 0.0858 92 -0.0002 0.0727 -0.0002 0.0831 93 -0.0002 0.0704 -0.0002 0.0805 94 -0.0002 0.0682 -0.0002 0.0779 95 -0.0002 0.0660 -0.0002 0.0755 96 -0.0001 0.0640 -0.0002 0.0731 97 -0.0001 0.0619 -0.0002 0.0708 98 -0.0001 0.0600 -0.0001 0.0686 99 -0.0001 0.0582 -0.0001 0.0665 100 -0.0001 0.0564 -0.0001 0.0644 Figure 11B. Mean Impulse Response of Hours and Mean of 95% Bootstrapped Confidence Bands Averaged across 1000 Applications of LSVAR Procedure Applied to Model Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 and i = 1:1000; nHrsir = Hrs_ir/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrscilb = Hrs_cilb/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrsciub = Hrs_ciub/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); disp(sprintf('%8g %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f\n',[[0:100]', ... mean(Hrs_cilb(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ir(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ciub(:,i)')', ... mean(nHrscilb(:,i)')',mean(nHrsir(:,i)')',mean(nHrsciub(:,i)')']')) Results: -------- 0 -1.1742 0.6949 1.4143 -1.3419 0.7942 1.6163 1 -1.1021 0.6604 1.3774 -1.2596 0.7548 1.5741 2 -1.0356 0.6260 1.3364 -1.1835 0.7154 1.5273 3 -0.9702 0.5938 1.2966 -1.1088 0.6786 1.4817 4 -0.9288 0.5520 1.2178 -1.0615 0.6308 1.3917 5 -0.8634 0.5036 1.1227 -0.9867 0.5756 1.2831 6 -0.8130 0.4624 1.0489 -0.9291 0.5284 1.1987 7 -0.7563 0.4217 0.9716 -0.8643 0.4819 1.1104 8 -0.7115 0.3830 0.9010 -0.8131 0.4377 1.0297 9 -0.6649 0.3508 0.8411 -0.7598 0.4009 0.9613 10 -0.6247 0.3217 0.7882 -0.7139 0.3676 0.9008 11 -0.5879 0.2952 0.7393 -0.6719 0.3374 0.8449 12 -0.5553 0.2713 0.6957 -0.6347 0.3100 0.7950 13 -0.5244 0.2495 0.6549 -0.5993 0.2851 0.7485 14 -0.4965 0.2298 0.6179 -0.5674 0.2626 0.7062 15 -0.4704 0.2119 0.5841 -0.5376 0.2422 0.6675 16 -0.4467 0.1957 0.5531 -0.5105 0.2236 0.6321 17 -0.4244 0.1809 0.5244 -0.4850 0.2068 0.5993 18 -0.4034 0.1675 0.4975 -0.4610 0.1914 0.5686 19 -0.3838 0.1551 0.4724 -0.4386 0.1773 0.5399 20 -0.3658 0.1439 0.4491 -0.4181 0.1644 0.5133 21 -0.3491 0.1335 0.4274 -0.3989 0.1526 0.4884 22 -0.3333 0.1240 0.4069 -0.3809 0.1417 0.4651 23 -0.3183 0.1153 0.3879 -0.3638 0.1318 0.4433 24 -0.3045 0.1073 0.3698 -0.3480 0.1226 0.4226 25 -0.2917 0.0999 0.3526 -0.3334 0.1141 0.4030 26 -0.2795 0.0930 0.3366 -0.3194 0.1063 0.3847 27 -0.2680 0.0867 0.3216 -0.3063 0.0991 0.3676 28 -0.2571 0.0808 0.3076 -0.2939 0.0924 0.3515 29 -0.2469 0.0754 0.2942 -0.2821 0.0862 0.3362 30 -0.2373 0.0704 0.2815 -0.2712 0.0805 0.3217 31 -0.2282 0.0658 0.2695 -0.2608 0.0751 0.3079 32 -0.2195 0.0614 0.2581 -0.2508 0.0702 0.2949 33 -0.2112 0.0574 0.2472 -0.2414 0.0656 0.2825 34 -0.2034 0.0537 0.2369 -0.2324 0.0614 0.2708 35 -0.1959 0.0502 0.2272 -0.2239 0.0574 0.2596 36 -0.1889 0.0470 0.2179 -0.2158 0.0537 0.2490 37 -0.1821 0.0440 0.2090 -0.2081 0.0503 0.2389 38 -0.1757 0.0412 0.2006 -0.2008 0.0471 0.2292 39 -0.1696 0.0386 0.1926 -0.1938 0.0441 0.2202 40 -0.1638 0.0361 0.1851 -0.1872 0.0413 0.2115 41 -0.1583 0.0339 0.1778 -0.1809 0.0387 0.2032 42 -0.1530 0.0317 0.1709 -0.1748 0.0363 0.1953 43 -0.1479 0.0297 0.1643 -0.1691 0.0340 0.1878 44 -0.1431 0.0279 0.1581 -0.1635 0.0319 0.1806 45 -0.1384 0.0262 0.1521 -0.1582 0.0299 0.1738 46 -0.1340 0.0245 0.1464 -0.1531 0.0280 0.1673 47 -0.1298 0.0230 0.1409 -0.1483 0.0263 0.1610 48 -0.1257 0.0216 0.1356 -0.1436 0.0247 0.1550 49 -0.1218 0.0203 0.1306 -0.1392 0.0231 0.1493 50 -0.1181 0.0190 0.1258 -0.1349 0.0217 0.1438 51 -0.1145 0.0178 0.1212 -0.1308 0.0204 0.1385 52 -0.1110 0.0167 0.1169 -0.1269 0.0191 0.1335 53 -0.1077 0.0157 0.1126 -0.1230 0.0179 0.1287 54 -0.1044 0.0147 0.1086 -0.1193 0.0168 0.1241 55 -0.1013 0.0138 0.1048 -0.1158 0.0158 0.1198 56 -0.0983 0.0130 0.1011 -0.1124 0.0148 0.1155 57 -0.0955 0.0121 0.0976 -0.1091 0.0139 0.1115 58 -0.0927 0.0114 0.0942 -0.1060 0.0130 0.1076 59 -0.0901 0.0107 0.0909 -0.1029 0.0122 0.1039 60 -0.0875 0.0100 0.0877 -0.1001 0.0114 0.1003 61 -0.0851 0.0094 0.0847 -0.0973 0.0107 0.0968 62 -0.0828 0.0088 0.0818 -0.0946 0.0100 0.0935 63 -0.0805 0.0082 0.0790 -0.0920 0.0094 0.0903 64 -0.0783 0.0077 0.0763 -0.0895 0.0088 0.0873 65 -0.0762 0.0072 0.0738 -0.0871 0.0082 0.0843 66 -0.0742 0.0067 0.0713 -0.0848 0.0077 0.0815 67 -0.0722 0.0063 0.0689 -0.0825 0.0072 0.0788 68 -0.0703 0.0059 0.0666 -0.0803 0.0067 0.0762 69 -0.0685 0.0055 0.0644 -0.0782 0.0063 0.0737 70 -0.0667 0.0051 0.0623 -0.0762 0.0059 0.0712 71 -0.0650 0.0048 0.0603 -0.0742 0.0055 0.0689 72 -0.0633 0.0044 0.0583 -0.0723 0.0051 0.0667 73 -0.0617 0.0041 0.0565 -0.0705 0.0047 0.0645 74 -0.0602 0.0038 0.0546 -0.0688 0.0044 0.0624 75 -0.0587 0.0036 0.0529 -0.0671 0.0041 0.0605 76 -0.0573 0.0033 0.0512 -0.0655 0.0038 0.0585 77 -0.0559 0.0031 0.0496 -0.0639 0.0035 0.0567 78 -0.0545 0.0028 0.0480 -0.0623 0.0032 0.0549 79 -0.0532 0.0026 0.0465 -0.0608 0.0030 0.0532 80 -0.0520 0.0024 0.0451 -0.0594 0.0027 0.0515 81 -0.0508 0.0022 0.0437 -0.0580 0.0025 0.0499 82 -0.0496 0.0020 0.0423 -0.0566 0.0023 0.0484 83 -0.0484 0.0018 0.0410 -0.0553 0.0021 0.0469 84 -0.0473 0.0017 0.0397 -0.0541 0.0019 0.0454 85 -0.0462 0.0015 0.0385 -0.0528 0.0017 0.0440 86 -0.0452 0.0014 0.0374 -0.0516 0.0016 0.0427 87 -0.0442 0.0012 0.0362 -0.0505 0.0014 0.0414 88 -0.0432 0.0011 0.0351 -0.0494 0.0012 0.0401 89 -0.0422 0.0010 0.0341 -0.0483 0.0011 0.0389 90 -0.0413 0.0008 0.0330 -0.0472 0.0010 0.0378 91 -0.0404 0.0007 0.0321 -0.0462 0.0008 0.0366 92 -0.0395 0.0006 0.0311 -0.0452 0.0007 0.0356 93 -0.0387 0.0005 0.0302 -0.0442 0.0006 0.0345 94 -0.0379 0.0004 0.0293 -0.0433 0.0005 0.0335 95 -0.0371 0.0003 0.0284 -0.0424 0.0004 0.0325 96 -0.0364 0.0003 0.0276 -0.0415 0.0003 0.0316 97 -0.0356 0.0002 0.0268 -0.0407 0.0002 0.0306 98 -0.0349 0.0001 0.0260 -0.0399 0.0001 0.0297 99 -0.0342 0.0000 0.0253 -0.0391 0.0000 0.0289 100 -0.0335 -0.0000 0.0245 -0.0383 -0.0001 0.0281 Code: ../../rbc/monte/montechk_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0 and i = 1:1000; nHrsir = Hrs_ir/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrscilb = Hrs_cilb/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); nHrsciub = Hrs_ciub/(100*Q(1,1)*(1-theta)); disp(sprintf('%8g %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f %7.4f\n',[[0:100]', ... mean(Hrs_cilb(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ir(:,i)')',mean(Hrs_ciub(:,i)')', ... mean(nHrscilb(:,i)')',mean(nHrsir(:,i)')',mean(nHrsciub(:,i)')']')) Results: -------- 0 -0.4318 0.8368 1.4925 -0.4934 0.9563 1.7056 1 -0.4119 0.7934 1.4457 -0.4707 0.9067 1.6522 2 -0.4018 0.7504 1.4001 -0.4592 0.8576 1.6000 3 -0.3868 0.7111 1.3548 -0.4420 0.8127 1.5483 4 -0.3800 0.6651 1.2836 -0.4342 0.7600 1.4669 5 -0.3456 0.6118 1.1922 -0.3949 0.6992 1.3624 6 -0.3170 0.5668 1.1218 -0.3622 0.6477 1.2820 7 -0.2899 0.5217 1.0466 -0.3314 0.5962 1.1961 8 -0.2708 0.4792 0.9786 -0.3095 0.5477 1.1183 9 -0.2461 0.4431 0.9195 -0.2813 0.5064 1.0508 10 -0.2256 0.4102 0.8671 -0.2579 0.4688 0.9910 11 -0.2069 0.3804 0.8188 -0.2364 0.4347 0.9358 12 -0.1916 0.3530 0.7751 -0.2190 0.4035 0.8858 13 -0.1768 0.3281 0.7344 -0.2021 0.3749 0.8393 14 -0.1640 0.3053 0.6976 -0.1875 0.3490 0.7972 15 -0.1519 0.2846 0.6635 -0.1736 0.3252 0.7582 16 -0.1409 0.2656 0.6319 -0.1610 0.3035 0.7222 17 -0.1305 0.2482 0.6024 -0.1491 0.2836 0.6884 18 -0.1211 0.2322 0.5751 -0.1384 0.2654 0.6572 19 -0.1122 0.2175 0.5495 -0.1282 0.2485 0.6280 20 -0.1041 0.2039 0.5256 -0.1190 0.2330 0.6006 21 -0.0966 0.1913 0.5031 -0.1104 0.2187 0.5750 22 -0.0898 0.1797 0.4819 -0.1026 0.2054 0.5508 23 -0.0836 0.1690 0.4620 -0.0956 0.1931 0.5280 24 -0.0780 0.1590 0.4434 -0.0892 0.1817 0.5067 25 -0.0729 0.1498 0.4258 -0.0834 0.1712 0.4866 26 -0.0682 0.1412 0.4092 -0.0780 0.1613 0.4676 27 -0.0639 0.1331 0.3935 -0.0730 0.1522 0.4497 28 -0.0599 0.1257 0.3786 -0.0684 0.1436 0.4327 29 -0.0562 0.1187 0.3645 -0.0642 0.1357 0.4166 30 -0.0528 0.1122 0.3509 -0.0604 0.1282 0.4010 31 -0.0498 0.1061 0.3379 -0.0569 0.1213 0.3862 32 -0.0469 0.1004 0.3256 -0.0536 0.1148 0.3721 33 -0.0443 0.0951 0.3139 -0.0506 0.1087 0.3588 34 -0.0419 0.0901 0.3027 -0.0479 0.1030 0.3460 35 -0.0396 0.0854 0.2921 -0.0452 0.0976 0.3338 36 -0.0375 0.0811 0.2819 -0.0429 0.0926 0.3222 37 -0.0356 0.0769 0.2722 -0.0407 0.0879 0.3111 38 -0.0338 0.0731 0.2629 -0.0386 0.0835 0.3004 39 -0.0321 0.0694 0.2540 -0.0367 0.0793 0.2903 40 -0.0306 0.0660 0.2456 -0.0350 0.0754 0.2807 41 -0.0292 0.0628 0.2375 -0.0333 0.0718 0.2714 42 -0.0278 0.0597 0.2297 -0.0318 0.0683 0.2625 43 -0.0266 0.0569 0.2222 -0.0304 0.0650 0.2540 44 -0.0254 0.0542 0.2151 -0.0290 0.0619 0.2458 45 -0.0243 0.0516 0.2082 -0.0278 0.0590 0.2380 46 -0.0232 0.0492 0.2016 -0.0266 0.0563 0.2304 47 -0.0223 0.0470 0.1953 -0.0254 0.0537 0.2232 48 -0.0213 0.0448 0.1893 -0.0244 0.0512 0.2163 49 -0.0204 0.0428 0.1834 -0.0234 0.0489 0.2096 50 -0.0196 0.0409 0.1778 -0.0224 0.0467 0.2032 51 -0.0188 0.0391 0.1725 -0.0215 0.0447 0.1971 52 -0.0181 0.0374 0.1673 -0.0206 0.0427 0.1912 53 -0.0174 0.0357 0.1622 -0.0198 0.0408 0.1854 54 -0.0167 0.0342 0.1574 -0.0191 0.0391 0.1799 55 -0.0161 0.0327 0.1527 -0.0184 0.0374 0.1746 56 -0.0155 0.0313 0.1482 -0.0177 0.0358 0.1694 57 -0.0150 0.0300 0.1439 -0.0171 0.0343 0.1645 58 -0.0144 0.0288 0.1398 -0.0165 0.0329 0.1597 59 -0.0140 0.0276 0.1357 -0.0159 0.0315 0.1551 60 -0.0135 0.0264 0.1319 -0.0154 0.0302 0.1507 61 -0.0130 0.0254 0.1282 -0.0149 0.0290 0.1465 62 -0.0126 0.0244 0.1246 -0.0144 0.0278 0.1424 63 -0.0122 0.0234 0.1212 -0.0139 0.0267 0.1385 64 -0.0118 0.0225 0.1179 -0.0135 0.0257 0.1347 65 -0.0114 0.0216 0.1147 -0.0131 0.0247 0.1310 66 -0.0111 0.0207 0.1116 -0.0127 0.0237 0.1275 67 -0.0107 0.0199 0.1085 -0.0123 0.0228 0.1240 68 -0.0104 0.0192 0.1056 -0.0119 0.0219 0.1207 69 -0.0101 0.0185 0.1028 -0.0116 0.0211 0.1175 70 -0.0098 0.0178 0.1001 -0.0112 0.0203 0.1144 71 -0.0096 0.0171 0.0974 -0.0109 0.0195 0.1113 72 -0.0093 0.0165 0.0949 -0.0106 0.0188 0.1084 73 -0.0090 0.0159 0.0924 -0.0103 0.0181 0.1056 74 -0.0088 0.0153 0.0900 -0.0101 0.0175 0.1028 75 -0.0086 0.0147 0.0876 -0.0098 0.0169 0.1001 76 -0.0084 0.0142 0.0854 -0.0096 0.0163 0.0976 77 -0.0082 0.0137 0.0832 -0.0093 0.0157 0.0951 78 -0.0080 0.0132 0.0811 -0.0091 0.0151 0.0927 79 -0.0078 0.0128 0.0790 -0.0089 0.0146 0.0903 80 -0.0076 0.0123 0.0770 -0.0087 0.0141 0.0880 81 -0.0074 0.0119 0.0751 -0.0085 0.0136 0.0858 82 -0.0073 0.0115 0.0732 -0.0083 0.0132 0.0837 83 -0.0071 0.0111 0.0714 -0.0081 0.0127 0.0816 84 -0.0070 0.0108 0.0697 -0.0080 0.0123 0.0796 85 -0.0068 0.0104 0.0680 -0.0078 0.0119 0.0777 86 -0.0067 0.0101 0.0663 -0.0076 0.0115 0.0758 87 -0.0065 0.0098 0.0647 -0.0075 0.0111 0.0740 88 -0.0064 0.0094 0.0632 -0.0073 0.0108 0.0722 89 -0.0063 0.0091 0.0616 -0.0072 0.0105 0.0705 90 -0.0062 0.0089 0.0602 -0.0071 0.0101 0.0688 91 -0.0061 0.0086 0.0588 -0.0069 0.0098 0.0672 92 -0.0060 0.0083 0.0574 -0.0068 0.0095 0.0656 93 -0.0059 0.0081 0.0561 -0.0067 0.0092 0.0641 94 -0.0058 0.0078 0.0547 -0.0066 0.0089 0.0626 95 -0.0057 0.0076 0.0535 -0.0065 0.0087 0.0611 96 -0.0056 0.0074 0.0522 -0.0064 0.0084 0.0597 97 -0.0055 0.0072 0.0510 -0.0063 0.0082 0.0583 98 -0.0054 0.0069 0.0499 -0.0062 0.0079 0.0570 99 -0.0053 0.0067 0.0488 -0.0061 0.0077 0.0557 100 -0.0053 0.0066 0.0477 -0.0060 0.0075 0.0545 Figure 12. Impulse Responses of Hours to Technology Shock Using Level SVAR (LSVAR) Procedure on various datasets Code: ../../bquah/ir.m with options data=1,2,3,4, p=4,nrep=1000,alpha=0 Results: A. data=2 0 -0.5855 -0.7494 -0.1552 1 -0.7965 -1.0930 -0.1190 2 -0.8171 -1.2352 0.0529 3 -0.7676 -1.2678 0.1851 4 -0.6826 -1.2471 0.2923 5 -0.5943 -1.1625 0.3157 6 -0.5126 -1.0475 0.3102 7 -0.4479 -0.9687 0.2711 8 -0.4007 -0.8854 0.2300 9 -0.3668 -0.8241 0.1868 10 -0.3414 -0.7690 0.1507 11 -0.3203 -0.7143 0.1221 12 -0.3008 -0.6894 0.1016 Note: prdz(1)=.5183 ==> tfp(1)=prdz(1)+theta*hrsz(1)=.3134 B. data=3 0 0.3417 -0.2983 0.5338 1 0.6178 -0.2943 0.8733 2 0.8933 -0.1358 1.1446 3 1.1010 0.0040 1.3587 4 1.1880 0.1012 1.4654 5 1.1641 0.1375 1.4533 6 1.0893 0.1496 1.3848 7 0.9996 0.1380 1.3128 8 0.9194 0.1069 1.2286 9 0.8594 0.0794 1.1600 10 0.8205 0.0608 1.1078 11 0.7976 0.0480 1.0775 12 0.7835 0.0394 1.0566 Note: prdz(1)=.8243 ==> tfp(1)=prdz(1)+theta*hrsz(1)=.9439 C. data=1 0 0.0533 -0.5617 0.3813 1 0.2363 -0.6056 0.5829 2 0.4042 -0.5478 0.7193 3 0.5581 -0.5655 0.8888 4 0.6656 -0.5233 1.0033 5 0.6864 -0.5075 1.0165 6 0.6868 -0.5151 1.0138 7 0.6764 -0.4789 1.0146 8 0.6618 -0.4572 0.9941 9 0.6469 -0.4414 0.9806 10 0.6315 -0.4287 0.9635 11 0.6159 -0.4063 0.9494 12 0.6013 -0.3979 0.9363 Note: prdz(1)=.7015 ==> tfp(1)=prdz(1)+theta*hrsz(1)=.7201 D. data=4 (for comment only) 0 0.0361 -0.4569 0.3712 1 0.1465 -0.6764 0.6532 2 0.3278 -0.6762 0.8970 3 0.4900 -0.5847 1.0723 4 0.5649 -0.5396 1.1244 5 0.5846 -0.4650 1.0870 6 0.5639 -0.3953 1.0000 7 0.5177 -0.3343 0.9177 8 0.4598 -0.2937 0.8426 9 0.4040 -0.2571 0.7584 10 0.3568 -0.2410 0.6905 11 0.3198 -0.2184 0.6481 12 0.2924 -0.1889 0.6231 Note: prdz(1)=.8550 ==> tfp(1)=prdz(1)+theta*hrsz(1)=.8676 Additional Statistics: --------------------- 1. Code: ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=.99, and ndraw=1500 1267 times adf>-3.44 (i.e., can't reject unit root for 84%) 1399 times LR<9.49 (i.e., can't reject p=4 in favor of p=5 for 93%) 1473 times min(AIC)<=4 (98%), Mean(AIC) rises monotonically #of AIC=1 1223 =2 159 =3 65 =4 26 >=5 27 1500 times min(SIC)<=4 (100%), Mean(SIC) rises monotonically Code: ../../rbc/monte/montechk_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0, and ndraw=1500 or ../../rbc/monte/monte_ur.m with pq=1, alpha=0, and ndraw=1500 unit root test same as above 1412 times LR<9.49 (i.e., can't reject p=4 in favor of p=5 for 94%) 1491 times min(AIC)<=4 (99%), Mean(AIC) rises monotonically #of AIC=1 1288 =2 144 =3 41 =4 18 >=5 9 1500 times min(SIC)<=4 (100%), Mean(SIC) rises monotonically 2. Code: /home/erm/papers/restud1/codes/svar.m with aimp=1 in iscmem_ms.m IMPULSE RESPONSES OF C,L,GDP FOR All Shocks (1% eps shock) ----------------------------------------------------------- 0.072 -0.594 0.059 0.097 -0.491 0.100 0.123 -0.402 0.143 0.149 -0.332 0.186 0.154 -0.293 0.194 0.155 -0.264 0.197 0.153 -0.242 0.195 0.148 -0.226 0.190 0.143 -0.213 0.185 0.138 -0.202 0.178 0.133 -0.192 0.171 0.127 -0.183 0.165 0.122 -0.175 0.158 ----------------------------------------------------------- Apply LSVAR procedure and compute sir=sort(ir') [IR(:,3),sir(25,:)',sir(975,:)'] for 1% eps shock ------------------------------------------------- -0.2170 -1.8597 1.2538 -0.7028 -1.8097 0.2682 -0.0492 -1.0663 1.0177 0.6096 -0.3905 1.6721 0.5252 -0.2111 1.3637 0.1817 -0.2530 0.7998 -0.0341 -0.3398 0.3146 -0.0419 -0.3290 0.2073 0.0123 -0.2258 0.2146 0.0362 -0.1196 0.2205 0.0178 -0.1149 0.1777 -0.0058 -0.1096 0.1227 -0.0140 -0.1153 0.0725 ------------------------------------------------- Apply QDSVAR(.99) procedure and compute sir=sort(ir') [IR(:,3),sir(25,:)',sir(975,:)'] for 1% eps shock ------------------------------------------------- -3.5305 -4.6835 -2.2026 -3.7104 -5.0926 -2.3337 -2.9476 -4.6262 -1.5509 -2.1480 -4.0666 -0.8899 -1.9687 -3.3648 -0.9731 -2.2063 -3.3395 -1.3622 -2.4238 -3.4599 -1.5685 -2.4209 -3.5162 -1.4475 -2.3217 -3.4903 -1.2962 -2.2350 -3.4191 -1.2843 -2.2118 -3.3837 -1.3139 -2.2138 -3.3416 -1.3686 -2.2049 -3.2810 -1.3445 ------------------------------------------------- 3. True impulse response of labor productivity is 0.7483 for 1% epsilon_z shock 0.8552 for 1% TFP shock 4. Variance decomposition in 3-variable VAR cases Codes: run truth3 with alpha=0 and (1) const=3, P(4,4)=9.686e-01, Q(4,4)=2.057e-02 (2) const=4, P(3,3)=.995, Q(3,3)=1.240e-02 (3) const=4, P(3,3)=.98, Q(3,3)=1.229e-03 in all cases, run the following afterward: ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with p=4 Compute Sigj=D0*Q*ej*Q*D0' where ej(j,j)=1 V0j=dlyap(C1+M,Sigj+C1*Sigj*C1'-(C1+M)*Sigj*(C1+M)') Note: ordering of observations is (1) change in log of labor productivity (2) log of hours per capita (3) log of investment share Case (1) [diag(V01./V0),diag(V02./V0),diag(V03./V0)] 0.5652 0.4197 0.0151 0.0595 0.8654 0.0752 0.2123 0.7606 0.0271 Case (2) 0.5439 0.4040 0.0522 0.0531 0.7722 0.1747 0.0672 0.2406 0.6922 Case (3) 0.5326 0.3956 0.0718 0.0543 0.7904 0.1552 0.0918 0.3287 0.5795 5. Variance decomposition with State Space Representation Codes: call mleq_ur_3sc and after A,B,C put: ii=[1:5,7:11]; e1=zeros(4);e2=e1;e3=e1;e4=e1; e1(1,1)=1; e2(2,2)=1; e3(3,3)=1; e4(4,4)=1; VX =dlyap(A(ii,ii),B(ii,:)*B(ii,:)'); VX1=dlyap(A(ii,ii),B(ii,:)*e1*B(ii,:)'); VX2=dlyap(A(ii,ii),B(ii,:)*e2*B(ii,:)'); VX3=dlyap(A(ii,ii),B(ii,:)*e3*B(ii,:)'); VX4=dlyap(A(ii,ii),B(ii,:)*e4*B(ii,:)'); VY =C(:,ii)*VX*C(:,ii)'; VY1=C(:,ii)*VX1*C(:,ii)'; VY2=C(:,ii)*VX2*C(:,ii)'; VY3=C(:,ii)*VX3*C(:,ii)'; VY4=C(:,ii)*VX4*C(:,ii)'; Note: ordering of observations is (1) growth in output per capita (2) growth in investment per capita (3) hours per capita (4) growth in government per capita [diag(VY1./VY),diag(VY2./VY),diag(VY3./VY),diag(VY4./VY)] (1) for g shock 0.3918 0.5740 0 0.0342 0.1655 0.8337 0 0.0008 0.0722 0.7579 0 0.1699 0.1755 0 0 0.8245 (2) for taux shock, rho=.995 0.4158 0.5251 0.0590 0 0.1563 0.5778 0.2659 0 0.0531 0.7723 0.1746 0 1.0000 0 0 0 (3) for taux shock, rho=.98 0.4057 0.5123 0.0820 0 0.1401 0.5178 0.3421 0 0.0543 0.7905 0.1551 0 1.0000 0 0 0 Codes: do same as above but for the 2-variable (mleq_ur_2s): 0.4421 0.5579 0 0 0.2130 0.7870 0 0 0.0643 0.9357 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 6. HP-filtered output with variation in both z and taul vs only z Use drawq_ur 1 time for 100,000 long series; compute HP-filtered log output (=dlog output) and log hours (=dlog hours) and compute: z and taul z only taul only var (dlog output*100) 4.86 2.17 2.70 var (dlog hours*100) 6.28 .254 6.03 Use drawq_ur 1000 times for 180 long series; compute HP-filtered log output and log hours and compute: z and taul z only taul only Mean(var dlog output*100) 4.70 2.07 2.64 Mean(var dlog hours*100) 6.12 .243 5.88 NOTE: If we use 1/4 variance of taul innovation (holding z), then z and taul z only taul only Mean(var dlog output*100) 2.73 2.07 0.659 Mean(var dlog hours*100) 1.71 .243 1.471 US Data: var (output*100) = 2.48 var (hours *100) = 1.71 NOTE that MLE tries to get the low frequencies. Do the same exercise again but compute variances of log per-capita hours without HP-filtering (since MLE is trying to hit this). In this case we get variances comparable to US data for our parameters: Use drawq_ur 1 time for 100,000 long series: z and taul z only taul only var log hours *100 .2920 .0188 .2737 Use drawq_ur 1000 times for 180 long series: z and taul z only taul only Mean(var log hours) *100 .2492 .0131 .235 NOTE: If we use 1/4 variance of taul innovation (holding z), then z and taul z only taul only Mean(var log hours) *100 .0724 .0131 .059 US Data: (var log(hours per capita)) *100 = .2596 7. Impulse Responses of Hours Using QDSVAR(.99) and LSVAR Procedure for Various Depreciation Rates (.95 and .2) Code: ../../rbc/monte/truth2.m with delta = 1-(1-.95)^(1/4) ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with same delta,p=4,alpha=.99 ../../rbc/monte/irtheory.m with same delta,p=4,alpha=0 Repeat with delta=1-(1-.2)^(1/4) (1) .95 case True QDSVAR LSVAR ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- 1% eps 1% TFP 1% eps 1% TFP 1% eps 1% TFP -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 2.8040e-01 3.2045e-01 2.8693e-01 3.2791e-01 2.9666e-01 3.3903e-01 1 1.6208e-01 1.8523e-01 1.6714e-01 1.9101e-01 1.7577e-01 2.0088e-01 2 9.3687e-02 1.0707e-01 9.6889e-02 1.1073e-01 1.0522e-01 1.2025e-01 3 5.4154e-02 6.1889e-02 5.4345e-02 6.2108e-02 6.3326e-02 7.2371e-02 4 3.1303e-02 3.5774e-02 2.5967e-02 2.9676e-02 3.9929e-02 4.5633e-02 5 1.8094e-02 2.0678e-02 2.2702e-02 2.5944e-02 2.9527e-02 3.3745e-02 6 1.0459e-02 1.1953e-02 2.0526e-02 2.3458e-02 2.3433e-02 2.6780e-02 7 6.0456e-03 6.9091e-03 1.9005e-02 2.1719e-02 1.9741e-02 2.2560e-02 8 3.4946e-03 3.9937e-03 1.7916e-02 2.0475e-02 1.7432e-02 1.9922e-02 9 2.0200e-03 2.3085e-03 1.7245e-02 1.9708e-02 1.5909e-02 1.8181e-02 10 1.1676e-03 1.3344e-03 1.6838e-02 1.9243e-02 1.4750e-02 1.6857e-02 11 6.7491e-04 7.7131e-04 1.6559e-02 1.8924e-02 1.3805e-02 1.5777e-02 12 3.9012e-04 4.4584e-04 1.6342e-02 1.8676e-02 1.2991e-02 1.4847e-02 13 2.2550e-04 2.5771e-04 1.6154e-02 1.8461e-02 1.2262e-02 1.4014e-02 14 1.3035e-04 1.4896e-04 1.5979e-02 1.8261e-02 1.1592e-02 1.3248e-02 15 7.5345e-05 8.6106e-05 1.5812e-02 1.8071e-02 1.0968e-02 1.2535e-02 16 4.3552e-05 4.9772e-05 1.5650e-02 1.7886e-02 1.0383e-02 1.1866e-02 17 2.5174e-05 2.8770e-05 1.5492e-02 1.7705e-02 9.8314e-03 1.1236e-02 18 1.4552e-05 1.6630e-05 1.5336e-02 1.7527e-02 9.3104e-03 1.0640e-02 19 8.4112e-06 9.6126e-06 1.5183e-02 1.7351e-02 8.8176e-03 1.0077e-02 20 4.8620e-06 5.5564e-06 1.5031e-02 1.7177e-02 8.3512e-03 9.5440e-03 21 2.8104e-06 3.2118e-06 1.4880e-02 1.7005e-02 7.9097e-03 9.0394e-03 22 1.6245e-06 1.8565e-06 1.4731e-02 1.6835e-02 7.4916e-03 8.5616e-03 23 9.3900e-07 1.0731e-06 1.4584e-02 1.6667e-02 7.0956e-03 8.1091e-03 24 5.4277e-07 6.2030e-07 1.4438e-02 1.6500e-02 6.7206e-03 7.6805e-03 25 3.1374e-07 3.5855e-07 1.4294e-02 1.6335e-02 6.3654e-03 7.2746e-03 26 1.8135e-07 2.0725e-07 1.4151e-02 1.6172e-02 6.0290e-03 6.8902e-03 27 1.0483e-07 1.1980e-07 1.4009e-02 1.6010e-02 5.7104e-03 6.5260e-03 28 6.0593e-08 6.9248e-08 1.3869e-02 1.5850e-02 5.4086e-03 6.1812e-03 29 3.5025e-08 4.0027e-08 1.3730e-02 1.5692e-02 5.1228e-03 5.8545e-03 30 2.0245e-08 2.3137e-08 1.3593e-02 1.5535e-02 4.8521e-03 5.5451e-03 31 1.1703e-08 1.3374e-08 1.3457e-02 1.5379e-02 4.5957e-03 5.2521e-03 32 6.7644e-09 7.7306e-09 1.3323e-02 1.5226e-02 4.3528e-03 4.9745e-03 33 3.9101e-09 4.4685e-09 1.3189e-02 1.5073e-02 4.1228e-03 4.7116e-03 34 2.2601e-09 2.5830e-09 1.3058e-02 1.4923e-02 3.9049e-03 4.4626e-03 35 1.3064e-09 1.4930e-09 1.2927e-02 1.4773e-02 3.6985e-03 4.2268e-03 36 7.5516e-10 8.6302e-10 1.2798e-02 1.4626e-02 3.5031e-03 4.0034e-03 37 4.3651e-10 4.9885e-10 1.2670e-02 1.4479e-02 3.3180e-03 3.7919e-03 38 2.5231e-10 2.8835e-10 1.2543e-02 1.4335e-02 3.1426e-03 3.5915e-03 39 1.4585e-10 1.6668e-10 1.2418e-02 1.4191e-02 2.9765e-03 3.4017e-03 40 8.4303e-11 9.6344e-11 1.2293e-02 1.4049e-02 2.8192e-03 3.2219e-03 41 4.8730e-11 5.5690e-11 1.2170e-02 1.3909e-02 2.6703e-03 3.0516e-03 42 2.8167e-11 3.2191e-11 1.2049e-02 1.3770e-02 2.5291e-03 2.8904e-03 43 1.6282e-11 1.8607e-11 1.1928e-02 1.3632e-02 2.3955e-03 2.7376e-03 44 9.4113e-12 1.0756e-11 1.1809e-02 1.3496e-02 2.2689e-03 2.5930e-03 45 5.4401e-12 6.2171e-12 1.1691e-02 1.3361e-02 2.1490e-03 2.4559e-03 46 3.1445e-12 3.5937e-12 1.1574e-02 1.3227e-02 2.0354e-03 2.3261e-03 47 1.8176e-12 2.0772e-12 1.1458e-02 1.3095e-02 1.9279e-03 2.2032e-03 48 1.0506e-12 1.2007e-12 1.1344e-02 1.2964e-02 1.8260e-03 2.0868e-03 49 6.0731e-13 6.9405e-13 1.1230e-02 1.2834e-02 1.7295e-03 1.9765e-03 50 3.5104e-13 4.0118e-13 1.1118e-02 1.2706e-02 1.6381e-03 1.8721e-03 51 2.0291e-13 2.3190e-13 1.1007e-02 1.2579e-02 1.5515e-03 1.7731e-03 52 1.1729e-13 1.3404e-13 1.0897e-02 1.2453e-02 1.4695e-03 1.6794e-03 53 6.7798e-14 7.7482e-14 1.0788e-02 1.2329e-02 1.3919e-03 1.5907e-03 54 3.9189e-14 4.4787e-14 1.0680e-02 1.2205e-02 1.3183e-03 1.5066e-03 55 2.2653e-14 2.5888e-14 1.0573e-02 1.2083e-02 1.2486e-03 1.4270e-03 56 1.3094e-14 1.4964e-14 1.0467e-02 1.1962e-02 1.1827e-03 1.3516e-03 57 7.5687e-15 8.6498e-15 1.0363e-02 1.1843e-02 1.1202e-03 1.2801e-03 58 4.3750e-15 4.9998e-15 1.0259e-02 1.1724e-02 1.0610e-03 1.2125e-03 59 2.5289e-15 2.8901e-15 1.0156e-02 1.1607e-02 1.0049e-03 1.1484e-03 60 1.4618e-15 1.6706e-15 1.0055e-02 1.1491e-02 9.5179e-04 1.0877e-03 61 8.4495e-16 9.6563e-16 9.9543e-03 1.1376e-02 9.0149e-04 1.0302e-03 62 4.8841e-16 5.5817e-16 9.8548e-03 1.1262e-02 8.5385e-04 9.7580e-04 63 2.8231e-16 3.2264e-16 9.7562e-03 1.1150e-02 8.0872e-04 9.2424e-04 64 1.6319e-16 1.8649e-16 9.6587e-03 1.1038e-02 7.6599e-04 8.7539e-04 65 9.4327e-17 1.0780e-16 9.5621e-03 1.0928e-02 7.2551e-04 8.2913e-04 66 5.4524e-17 6.2312e-17 9.4664e-03 1.0819e-02 6.8717e-04 7.8531e-04 67 3.1517e-17 3.6018e-17 9.3718e-03 1.0710e-02 6.5085e-04 7.4381e-04 68 1.8218e-17 2.0820e-17 9.2781e-03 1.0603e-02 6.1646e-04 7.0451e-04 69 1.0530e-17 1.2034e-17 9.1853e-03 1.0497e-02 5.8388e-04 6.6727e-04 70 6.0869e-18 6.9563e-18 9.0934e-03 1.0392e-02 5.5302e-04 6.3201e-04 71 3.5184e-18 4.0209e-18 9.0025e-03 1.0288e-02 5.2380e-04 5.9861e-04 72 2.0338e-18 2.3242e-18 8.9125e-03 1.0185e-02 4.9612e-04 5.6698e-04 73 1.1756e-18 1.3435e-18 8.8233e-03 1.0084e-02 4.6990e-04 5.3701e-04 74 6.7952e-19 7.7657e-19 8.7351e-03 9.9828e-03 4.4507e-04 5.0864e-04 75 3.9278e-19 4.4888e-19 8.6478e-03 9.8829e-03 4.2155e-04 4.8176e-04 76 2.2704e-19 2.5947e-19 8.5613e-03 9.7841e-03 3.9927e-04 4.5630e-04 77 1.3124e-19 1.4998e-19 8.4757e-03 9.6863e-03 3.7817e-04 4.3218e-04 78 7.5859e-20 8.6694e-20 8.3909e-03 9.5894e-03 3.5818e-04 4.0934e-04 79 4.3849e-20 5.0112e-20 8.3070e-03 9.4935e-03 3.3926e-04 3.8771e-04 80 2.5346e-20 2.8966e-20 8.2239e-03 9.3986e-03 3.2133e-04 3.6722e-04 81 1.4651e-20 1.6743e-20 8.1417e-03 9.3046e-03 3.0435e-04 3.4782e-04 82 8.4687e-21 9.6782e-21 8.0603e-03 9.2115e-03 2.8826e-04 3.2943e-04 83 4.8952e-21 5.5943e-21 7.9797e-03 9.1194e-03 2.7303e-04 3.1203e-04 84 2.8296e-21 3.2337e-21 7.8999e-03 9.0282e-03 2.5860e-04 2.9554e-04 85 1.6356e-21 1.8692e-21 7.8209e-03 8.9379e-03 2.4493e-04 2.7992e-04 86 9.4541e-22 1.0804e-21 7.7427e-03 8.8486e-03 2.3199e-04 2.6513e-04 87 5.4648e-22 6.2453e-22 7.6652e-03 8.7601e-03 2.1973e-04 2.5111e-04 88 3.1588e-22 3.6100e-22 7.5886e-03 8.6725e-03 2.0812e-04 2.3784e-04 89 1.8259e-22 2.0867e-22 7.5127e-03 8.5858e-03 1.9712e-04 2.2527e-04 90 1.0554e-22 1.2062e-22 7.4376e-03 8.4999e-03 1.8670e-04 2.1337e-04 91 6.1007e-23 6.9721e-23 7.3632e-03 8.4149e-03 1.7684e-04 2.0209e-04 92 3.5264e-23 4.0301e-23 7.2896e-03 8.3308e-03 1.6749e-04 1.9141e-04 93 2.0384e-23 2.3295e-23 7.2167e-03 8.2474e-03 1.5864e-04 1.8130e-04 94 1.1782e-23 1.3465e-23 7.1445e-03 8.1650e-03 1.5026e-04 1.7172e-04 95 6.8106e-24 7.7834e-24 7.0731e-03 8.0833e-03 1.4232e-04 1.6264e-04 96 3.9367e-24 4.4990e-24 7.0023e-03 8.0025e-03 1.3479e-04 1.5405e-04 97 2.2756e-24 2.6006e-24 6.9323e-03 7.9225e-03 1.2767e-04 1.4591e-04 98 1.3153e-24 1.5032e-24 6.8630e-03 7.8432e-03 1.2092e-04 1.3820e-04 99 7.6031e-25 8.6891e-25 6.7944e-03 7.7648e-03 1.1453e-04 1.3089e-04 100 4.3949e-25 5.0226e-25 6.7264e-03 7.6872e-03 1.0848e-04 1.2398e-04 (2) .20 case True QDSVAR LSVAR ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- 1% eps 1% TFP 1% eps 1% TFP 1% eps 1% TFP --------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 3.7278e-01 4.2602e-01 -2.8391e-02 -3.2447e-02 8.0041e-01 9.1473e-01 1 3.3875e-01 3.8713e-01 -5.8272e-02 -6.6595e-02 7.3202e-01 8.3658e-01 2 3.0783e-01 3.5180e-01 -8.8918e-02 -1.0162e-01 6.6946e-01 7.6508e-01 3 2.7973e-01 3.1968e-01 -1.2070e-01 -1.3794e-01 6.1220e-01 6.9964e-01 4 2.5420e-01 2.9050e-01 -1.5401e-01 -1.7601e-01 5.6335e-01 6.4382e-01 5 2.3099e-01 2.6399e-01 -1.5380e-01 -1.7577e-01 5.2021e-01 5.9452e-01 6 2.0991e-01 2.3989e-01 -1.5357e-01 -1.7550e-01 4.8056e-01 5.4920e-01 7 1.9075e-01 2.1799e-01 -1.5316e-01 -1.7503e-01 4.4412e-01 5.0755e-01 8 1.7334e-01 1.9809e-01 -1.5240e-01 -1.7417e-01 4.1059e-01 4.6923e-01 9 1.5751e-01 1.8001e-01 -1.5110e-01 -1.7268e-01 3.7965e-01 4.3388e-01 10 1.4314e-01 1.6358e-01 -1.4974e-01 -1.7113e-01 3.5106e-01 4.0120e-01 11 1.3007e-01 1.4865e-01 -1.4833e-01 -1.6951e-01 3.2464e-01 3.7100e-01 12 1.1820e-01 1.3508e-01 -1.4688e-01 -1.6786e-01 3.0021e-01 3.4308e-01 13 1.0741e-01 1.2275e-01 -1.4543e-01 -1.6620e-01 2.7762e-01 3.1727e-01 14 9.7604e-02 1.1154e-01 -1.4398e-01 -1.6454e-01 2.5673e-01 2.9340e-01 15 8.8694e-02 1.0136e-01 -1.4254e-01 -1.6290e-01 2.3741e-01 2.7132e-01 16 8.0598e-02 9.2110e-02 -1.4112e-01 -1.6128e-01 2.1955e-01 2.5091e-01 17 7.3241e-02 8.3702e-02 -1.3971e-01 -1.5966e-01 2.0303e-01 2.3203e-01 18 6.6556e-02 7.6062e-02 -1.3831e-01 -1.5807e-01 1.8776e-01 2.1457e-01 19 6.0480e-02 6.9119e-02 -1.3693e-01 -1.5649e-01 1.7363e-01 1.9843e-01 20 5.4960e-02 6.2809e-02 -1.3556e-01 -1.5492e-01 1.6057e-01 1.8350e-01 21 4.9943e-02 5.7076e-02 -1.3421e-01 -1.5337e-01 1.4849e-01 1.6969e-01 22 4.5384e-02 5.1866e-02 -1.3286e-01 -1.5184e-01 1.3731e-01 1.5693e-01 23 4.1241e-02 4.7132e-02 -1.3153e-01 -1.5032e-01 1.2698e-01 1.4512e-01 24 3.7477e-02 4.2830e-02 -1.3022e-01 -1.4882e-01 1.1743e-01 1.3420e-01 25 3.4056e-02 3.8920e-02 -1.2892e-01 -1.4733e-01 1.0859e-01 1.2410e-01 26 3.0947e-02 3.5367e-02 -1.2763e-01 -1.4586e-01 1.0042e-01 1.1477e-01 27 2.8122e-02 3.2139e-02 -1.2635e-01 -1.4440e-01 9.2868e-02 1.0613e-01 28 2.5555e-02 2.9205e-02 -1.2509e-01 -1.4295e-01 8.5881e-02 9.8148e-02 29 2.3223e-02 2.6539e-02 -1.2384e-01 -1.4152e-01 7.9420e-02 9.0763e-02 30 2.1103e-02 2.4117e-02 -1.2260e-01 -1.4011e-01 7.3444e-02 8.3935e-02 31 1.9177e-02 2.1916e-02 -1.2137e-01 -1.3871e-01 6.7919e-02 7.7620e-02 32 1.7426e-02 1.9915e-02 -1.2016e-01 -1.3732e-01 6.2809e-02 7.1780e-02 33 1.5835e-02 1.8097e-02 -1.1896e-01 -1.3595e-01 5.8083e-02 6.6379e-02 34 1.4390e-02 1.6445e-02 -1.1777e-01 -1.3459e-01 5.3713e-02 6.1385e-02 35 1.3076e-02 1.4944e-02 -1.1659e-01 -1.3324e-01 4.9672e-02 5.6767e-02 36 1.1883e-02 1.3580e-02 -1.1542e-01 -1.3191e-01 4.5935e-02 5.2496e-02 37 1.0798e-02 1.2340e-02 -1.1427e-01 -1.3059e-01 4.2479e-02 4.8546e-02 38 9.8124e-03 1.1214e-02 -1.1313e-01 -1.2929e-01 3.9283e-02 4.4894e-02 39 8.9167e-03 1.0190e-02 -1.1200e-01 -1.2799e-01 3.6327e-02 4.1516e-02 40 8.1028e-03 9.2602e-03 -1.1088e-01 -1.2671e-01 3.3594e-02 3.8392e-02 41 7.3632e-03 8.4149e-03 -1.0977e-01 -1.2545e-01 3.1067e-02 3.5504e-02 42 6.6911e-03 7.6468e-03 -1.0867e-01 -1.2419e-01 2.8729e-02 3.2833e-02 43 6.0803e-03 6.9488e-03 -1.0758e-01 -1.2295e-01 2.6568e-02 3.0362e-02 44 5.5253e-03 6.3145e-03 -1.0651e-01 -1.2172e-01 2.4569e-02 2.8078e-02 45 5.0209e-03 5.7381e-03 -1.0544e-01 -1.2050e-01 2.2720e-02 2.5966e-02 46 4.5626e-03 5.2143e-03 -1.0439e-01 -1.1930e-01 2.1011e-02 2.4012e-02 47 4.1461e-03 4.7383e-03 -1.0334e-01 -1.1810e-01 1.9430e-02 2.2205e-02 48 3.7677e-03 4.3058e-03 -1.0231e-01 -1.1692e-01 1.7968e-02 2.0535e-02 49 3.4238e-03 3.9128e-03 -1.0129e-01 -1.1575e-01 1.6616e-02 1.8990e-02 50 3.1112e-03 3.5556e-03 -1.0027e-01 -1.1460e-01 1.5366e-02 1.7561e-02 51 2.8272e-03 3.2311e-03 -9.9272e-02 -1.1345e-01 1.4210e-02 1.6240e-02 52 2.5692e-03 2.9361e-03 -9.8279e-02 -1.1232e-01 1.3141e-02 1.5018e-02 53 2.3346e-03 2.6681e-03 -9.7296e-02 -1.1119e-01 1.2152e-02 1.3888e-02 54 2.1215e-03 2.4246e-03 -9.6323e-02 -1.1008e-01 1.1238e-02 1.2843e-02 55 1.9279e-03 2.2032e-03 -9.5360e-02 -1.0898e-01 1.0393e-02 1.1877e-02 56 1.7519e-03 2.0021e-03 -9.4406e-02 -1.0789e-01 9.6106e-03 1.0983e-02 57 1.5920e-03 1.8194e-03 -9.3462e-02 -1.0681e-01 8.8875e-03 1.0157e-02 58 1.4467e-03 1.6533e-03 -9.2528e-02 -1.0574e-01 8.2189e-03 9.3928e-03 59 1.3146e-03 1.5024e-03 -9.1602e-02 -1.0469e-01 7.6005e-03 8.6861e-03 60 1.1946e-03 1.3652e-03 -9.0686e-02 -1.0364e-01 7.0287e-03 8.0326e-03 61 1.0856e-03 1.2406e-03 -8.9779e-02 -1.0260e-01 6.4998e-03 7.4282e-03 62 9.8648e-04 1.1274e-03 -8.8882e-02 -1.0158e-01 6.0108e-03 6.8693e-03 63 8.9643e-04 1.0245e-03 -8.7993e-02 -1.0056e-01 5.5586e-03 6.3525e-03 64 8.1461e-04 9.3096e-04 -8.7113e-02 -9.9555e-02 5.1404e-03 5.8746e-03 65 7.4025e-04 8.4598e-04 -8.6242e-02 -9.8560e-02 4.7536e-03 5.4326e-03 66 6.7268e-04 7.6876e-04 -8.5379e-02 -9.7574e-02 4.3960e-03 5.0239e-03 67 6.1127e-04 6.9858e-04 -8.4526e-02 -9.6598e-02 4.0652e-03 4.6459e-03 68 5.5548e-04 6.3482e-04 -8.3680e-02 -9.5632e-02 3.7594e-03 4.2963e-03 69 5.0477e-04 5.7687e-04 -8.2843e-02 -9.4676e-02 3.4765e-03 3.9731e-03 70 4.5870e-04 5.2421e-04 -8.2015e-02 -9.3729e-02 3.2150e-03 3.6742e-03 71 4.1683e-04 4.7636e-04 -8.1195e-02 -9.2792e-02 2.9731e-03 3.3977e-03 72 3.7878e-04 4.3288e-04 -8.0383e-02 -9.1864e-02 2.7494e-03 3.1421e-03 73 3.4420e-04 3.9337e-04 -7.9579e-02 -9.0945e-02 2.5425e-03 2.9057e-03 74 3.1278e-04 3.5746e-04 -7.8783e-02 -9.0036e-02 2.3513e-03 2.6871e-03 75 2.8423e-04 3.2483e-04 -7.7996e-02 -8.9136e-02 2.1744e-03 2.4849e-03 76 2.5829e-04 2.9518e-04 -7.7216e-02 -8.8244e-02 2.0108e-03 2.2980e-03 77 2.3471e-04 2.6823e-04 -7.6443e-02 -8.7362e-02 1.8595e-03 2.1251e-03 78 2.1329e-04 2.4375e-04 -7.5679e-02 -8.6488e-02 1.7196e-03 1.9652e-03 79 1.9382e-04 2.2150e-04 -7.4922e-02 -8.5623e-02 1.5902e-03 1.8173e-03 80 1.7613e-04 2.0128e-04 -7.4173e-02 -8.4767e-02 1.4706e-03 1.6806e-03 81 1.6005e-04 1.8291e-04 -7.3431e-02 -8.3919e-02 1.3599e-03 1.5542e-03 82 1.4544e-04 1.6621e-04 -7.2697e-02 -8.3080e-02 1.2576e-03 1.4372e-03 83 1.3216e-04 1.5104e-04 -7.1970e-02 -8.2249e-02 1.1630e-03 1.3291e-03 84 1.2010e-04 1.3725e-04 -7.1250e-02 -8.1427e-02 1.0755e-03 1.2291e-03 85 1.0914e-04 1.2472e-04 -7.0538e-02 -8.0613e-02 9.9457e-04 1.1366e-03 86 9.9174e-05 1.1334e-04 -6.9832e-02 -7.9807e-02 9.1974e-04 1.0511e-03 87 9.0122e-05 1.0299e-04 -6.9134e-02 -7.9009e-02 8.5054e-04 9.7202e-04 88 8.1895e-05 9.3592e-05 -6.8443e-02 -7.8218e-02 7.8655e-04 8.9889e-04 89 7.4420e-05 8.5049e-05 -6.7758e-02 -7.7436e-02 7.2737e-04 8.3126e-04 90 6.7627e-05 7.7286e-05 -6.7081e-02 -7.6662e-02 6.7265e-04 7.6872e-04 91 6.1454e-05 7.0231e-05 -6.6410e-02 -7.5895e-02 6.2204e-04 7.1088e-04 92 5.5844e-05 6.3820e-05 -6.5746e-02 -7.5136e-02 5.7524e-04 6.5740e-04 93 5.0747e-05 5.7995e-05 -6.5088e-02 -7.4385e-02 5.3196e-04 6.0794e-04 94 4.6114e-05 5.2701e-05 -6.4437e-02 -7.3641e-02 4.9194e-04 5.6220e-04 95 4.1905e-05 4.7890e-05 -6.3793e-02 -7.2905e-02 4.5492e-04 5.1990e-04 96 3.8080e-05 4.3519e-05 -6.3155e-02 -7.2176e-02 4.2070e-04 4.8079e-04 97 3.4604e-05 3.9546e-05 -6.2524e-02 -7.1454e-02 3.8904e-04 4.4461e-04 98 3.1445e-05 3.5937e-05 -6.1898e-02 -7.0739e-02 3.5977e-04 4.1116e-04 99 2.8575e-05 3.2656e-05 -6.1279e-02 -7.0032e-02 3.3271e-04 3.8023e-04 100 2.5967e-05 2.9675e-05 -6.0667e-02 -6.9332e-02 3.0767e-04 3.5162e-04 8. Alternative assumptions during MLE a. Free up measurement error (Christiano's choice) Results from Maximum Likelihood Estimation ------------------------------------------ Parameters (free error, Larry) ----------------------------------------- 4.375e-03 4.200e-03 2.593e-01 2.536e-01 9.813e-01 9.818e-01 9.247e-03 9.300e-03 5.625e-03 5.700e-03 2.679e-04 2.690e-04 1.361e-05 1.369e-05 3.538e-04 3.534e-04 Log-Likelihood = -2803.566 -2803.820 b. Use only output and hours in observer equation and shut off measurement error Results from Maximum Likelihood Estimation ------------------------------------------ Parameters Standard Errors (dL*dL') --------------------------------------- 4.728e-03 7.197e-04 2.594e-01 1.316e-01 9.980e-01 8.803e-03 1.133e-02 6.015e-04 7.856e-03 1.890e-03 Log-Likelihood = -1545.354 9. Apply 2-variable SVAR procedure to 3-shock model using unrestricted MLE estimates with g as third shock. Code: ../../rbc/monte/movies.m with alpha=0 or .99, p=4, and pu3 instead of pu Results: alpha=0 Impact of Hours to 1% TFP shock is 1.1491 Half-life of impulse response is 9.8 alpha=.99 Impact of Hours to 1% TFP shock is -.8476 Half-life of impulse response is 67.5