This file contains instructions for replicating results (in the benchmark model and capacity utilization model) and information about our data files and sources. A. REPLICATING RESULTS The codes in this directory are used to compare simulations of our models with the time series for the United States. The codes used to plot the main figures are Matlab codes COMPARE.M and SCOMPARE.M which, in turn, call codes in the subdirectories (listed below). The main results are generated by Fortran90 codes BENCH.F90, SBENCH.F90, CAPUTIL.F90, SCAPUTIL.F90, and BMAPP.F90. The last one is for a comparison to results in the appendix of Braun and McGrattan (NBER Macro Annual 1993). See our technical appendix and comments in the fortran files for more details on the models. INPUTS FOR FISCAL SHOCKS AND TECHNOLOGY The inputs in Figure 1 are generated each time we run COMPARE.M or SCOMPARE.M. (See Figure 1 if iskip=1 and Figure 8 otherwise.) RESULTS FOR BENCHMARK MODEL The results in Figures 2-4 (the perfect foresight model with baseline parameters) are generated by compare.m. To replicate what is in the paper: 1. Go to subdirectory ./bench 2. Copy bench.dat.base to bench.dat 3. Copy benchpars.dat.base to benchpars.dat 4. Go back up to the codes subdirectory 5. In Matlab, run compare The results for Figures 5-7 (the stochastic model with baseline parameters) are generated by scompare.m. To replicate what is in the paper: 1. Copy chains_base.inp to chains.inp 2. Go to subdirectory ./bench 3. Copy chains.out.base to chains.out 4. Copy benchpars.dat.base to benchpars.dat 5. Go back up to the codes subdirectory 6. In Matlab, run scompare To run new cases with 1 Markov chain, do the following 1. Edit bench.inp. (See instructions at the top of bench.f90 for the input file.) 2. Run ./linuxbench (on linux) or /bench.exe (on windows). If neither apply, recompile bench.f90 using a compile statement like I use: pgf90 -fast -r8 bench.f90 qgausl.f90 uni.f -llapack -lblas which calls LAPACK and BLAS routines from math libraries CAPACITY UTILIZATION MODEL The results in technical appendix can be replicated as follows: 1. Copy chains_base.inp to chains.inp 2. Go to subdirectory ./caputil 3. Copy chains.out.base to chains.out 4. Copy caputpars.dat.base to caputpars.dat 5. Go back up to the codes subdirectory 6. In Matlab, run scompare (and extra if results on the fraction employed and hours per worker are desired) To run new cases with 1 Markov chain, do the following 1. Compile caputil.f90 after editing caputil.inp (See instructions at the top of caputil.f90 for the input file.) 2. Run ./linuxscaput (on linux) or use a compile statement like: pgf90 -fast -r8 caputil.f90 qgausl.f90 uni.f -llapack -lblas which calls LAPACK and BLAS routines from math libraries B. DATA FILES AND SOURCES The data files loaded by COMPARE.M and SCOMPARE.M are as follows (with full citations listed at the bottom): capr_us.dat Sources: Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the U.S., 1925-85 Table A6. Fixed Nonresidential Private Capital, by Legal Form of Organization and Major Industry Group, Constant Cost for columns (2)-(3) Table A9. Private Residential Capital, by Legal Form of Organization and Major Industry Group, Constant Cost for column (4) Table A15. Residential Capital, by Type of Owner, Tenure Group, and Type of Equipment and Structures, Constant Cost for column (7) Table A17. Durable Goods Owned by Consumers, by Type of Goods, Constant Cost for column (8) Table A19. Fixed Nonresidential Government Capital, by Type of Government and Type of Equipment and Structures, Constant Cost for columns (5)-(6), (9)-(10) Plus: Various issues of Survey of Current Business for latest data, all columns All columns are net stocks in billions of 1982 dollars Columns: (1) Year (2) Nonresidential private equipment, all industries (3) Nonresidential private structures, all industries (4) Residential private, total (5) Nonresidential government equipment, total (6) Nonresidential government structures, total (7) Federal + State/Local residential (8) Durable goods, total (9) Federal military equipment (10) Federal military facilities (11) Federal equipment excluding military (12) Federal industrial buildings comp_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Tables 6.4A,B. Compensation of Employees by Industry: Annually 1929-1982 (millions of dollars), pp. 260-4. Columns: (1) Year (2) Compenstion of employees (3) _ Domestic industries (4) __ Private industries (5) ___ Agriculture, forestry, fisheries (6) ___ Mining (7) ___ Construction (8) ___ Manufacturing (9) ___ Transportation and public utilities (10) ___ Wholesale trade (11) ___ Retail trade (12) ___ Finance, insurance, and real estate (13) ___ Services (14) __ Government and government enterprises (15) ___ Federal government enterprises (16) ___ State & Local government enterprises (17) ___ Military (18) _ Rest of World NOTES: 1929-1948 and 1949-1982 have different SIC classifications. cons_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 1.2. Gross National Product Annually, 1929-82 (billions of 1982 dollars), pp. 6-7. Columns: (1) Year (2) Personal Consumption Expenditures (3) Personal Consumption Expenditures: durable (4) Personal Consumption Expenditures: nondurable (5) Personal Consumption Expenditures: services empl_us.dat Sources: J.W. Kendrick (1961) Table A-VI. National Economy: Persons Engaged, by Major Sector, 1869-1957 (thousands), pp. 305-7 for columns (2)-(4) J.W. Kendrick (1973) Table A-6. National Economy: Persons Engaged by Sector, 1948-1966 (thousands), p. 223 for columns (2)-(4) Long Term Economic Growth, Supplement SCB Persons engaged, national and private economy, 1889-1966 (thousands), Series A81, A83, pp. 194-5 for column (5)-(6) Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 Series Y904. Military Personnel on Active Duty, 1789-1970 (converted to thousands), pp. 1141-1143 for column (7) Columns: (1) Year (2) Persons engaged-national economy, Kendrick (3) Persons engaged-private economy, Kendrick (4) Persons engaged-military, Kendrick (5) Persons engaged-national economy, BEA (6) Persons engaged-private economy, BEA (7) Total military personnel, 1789-1970 NOTES: (2)-(4) 1874 is decade average, 1869-78 1884 is decade average, 1879-88 (3) After 1948, add business + households fpur_us.dat Sources: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 3.7A. Government Purchases of Goods and Services by Type: Annually 1929-1982 (billions of dollars), pp. 152,155 for columns (2)-(6). Table 3.8A. (billions of 1982 dollars), pp. 156-7,159 for columns (7)-(11) Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 National Income, by Type of Income: 1929-1970 Series F167. Military Wages and Salaries (billions of dollars), p. 235 for column (12) Columns: (1) Year (2) Federal - Durable goods (3) Federal - Nondurable goods (4) Federal - Services (5) Federal - Services, Compensation of employees (6) Federal - Structures (7)- Analogue of columns (2)-(8) except at (11) 1982 prices (12) Military wages and salaries full_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Tables 6.7A,B. Full-Time Equivalent Employees by Industry: Annually 1929-1982 (thousands), pp. 274-7. Columns: (1) Year (2) Total full-time equivalent employees (3) _ Domestic industries (4) __ Private industries (5) ___ Agriculture, forestry, fisheries (6) ___ Mining (7) ___ Construction (8) ___ Manufacturing (9) ___ Transportation and public utilities (10) ___ Wholesale trade (11) ___ Retail trade (12) ___ Finance, insurance, and real estate (13) ___ Services (14) __ Government and government enterprises (15) ___ Federal government enterprises (16) ___ State & Local government enterprises (17) ___ Military (18) _ Rest of World NOTES: 1929-1948 and 1949-1982 have different SIC classifications. ginv_us.dat Sources: Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the U.S., 1925-85 Table B12. Fixed Nonresidential Government Capital, by Type of Government and Type of Equipment and Structures, Constant Cost Valuation, pp. 363-366 All columns are investment data, millions of 1982 dollars Columns: (1) Year (2) Federal, Total (3) Federal, Equipment (4) Federal, Equipment, Military (5) Federal, Structures (6) Federal, Structures, Industrial Bldgs. (7) Federal, Structures, Highways & Streets (8) Federal, Structures, Military facilities (9) State & Local, Total (10) State & Local, Equipment (11) State & Local, Structures (12) State & Local, Structures, Highways & Streets hour_us.dat Sources: J.W. Kendrick (1961) Table A-X. National Economy: Manhours, by Major Sector, 1869-1957 (millions), pp. 311-13 for columns (2)-(4) J.W. Kendrick (1973) Table A-10. National Economy: Manhours by Sector, 1948-1966 (millions), p. 226 for columns (2)-(4) Long Term Economic Growth, Supplement SCB (1973) Labor input index, NBER, Kendrick, Series A63, 1869-1969 Series A63, NBER, Kendrick, 1889-1970, pp. 192-3 Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 Series D803, 806, 810. Earnings and Hours of Production Workers in Manufacturing, 1909-1970, p. 169-70 for columns (6)-(8). Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 Series D831,834,837,840,843. Earnings and Hours of Production Workers in 25 Manufacturing Industries, by Sex and Degree of Skill: 1914-1948, p. 172 for columns (9)-(14). Columns: (1) Year (2) Manhours-national economy, Kendrick (3) Manhours-private economy, Kendrick (4) Manhours-military, Kendrick (5) Labor input, private economy, 1958=100 (A63) (6) Average weekly hours, All manufacturing (D803) (7) Average weekly hours, Durable goods (D806) (8) Average weekly hours, Nondurable goods (D810) (9) Average weekly hours, 25 manuf. ind., all (10) Average weekly hours, 25 manuf., male (11) Average weekly hours, 25 manuf., female (12) Average weekly hours, 25 manuf., unskilled male (13) Average weekly hours, 25 manuf., skilled male NOTES: (2)-(4) 1874 is decade average, 1869-78 1884 is decade average, 1879-88 (3) After 1948, add business + households ibtx_us.dat Sources: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 3.5. Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals, Annually, 1929-82 (billions of dollars), pp. 149-50. Columns: (1) Year (2) Indirect business tax and nontax accruals (3) Federal excise taxes (4) State and local sales taxes (5) State and local property taxes (6) Other = (2)-[(3)+(4)+(5)] ivan_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Tables 6.16A,B. Inventory Valuation Adjustment to Nonfarm Incomes by Legal Form of Organization and Industry: Annually 1929-1982 (millions of dollars), pp. 293-4. Columns: (1) Year (2) Inventory Valuation adjustment (3) _ Corporate business (4) ___ Mining (5) ___ Contract construction (6) ___ Manufacturing (7) ___ Transportation and public utilities (8) ___ Wholesale trade (9) ___ Retail trade (10) ___ Other (11) _ Noncorporate business (12) ___ Mining (13) ___ Contract construction (14) ___ Manufacturing (15) ___ Wholesale trade (16) ___ Retail trade and automobile services NOTES: 1929-1948 and 1949-1982 have different SIC classifications. kinv_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 5.11. Inventories and Final Sales of Business by Industry (billions of 1982 dollars), pp. 247-251, for column (2). Table 5.10. Inventories and Final Sales of Business by Industry (billions of dollars), pp. 243-247, for column (3). Columns: (1) Year (2) End-of-year stock of inventories, real (3) End-of-year stock of inventories, nominal mhrs_us.dat Sources: J.W. Kendrick (1961) Table A-X. National Economy: Manhours, by Major Sector, 1869-1957 (millions), pp. 311-13 for years 1869-1947. J.W. Kendrick (1973) Table A-10. National Economy: Manhours by Sector, 1948-1966 (millions), p. 226. Columns: (1) Year (2) Total manhours (incl. military) (3) _ civilian economy (4) _ general government (5) ___ military (6) ___ civilian (7) _ private economy (8) ___ farm (9) ___ nonfarm NOTE: (7) After 1948, add business + households (9) After 1948, add nonfarm + households mtax_us.dat Sources: D. Joines (1981) Estimates of effective marginal tax rates on factor incomes, Journal of Business, 54:191-226, for 1929-1946. Barro and Sahasakul (1986) Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax, Journal of Business, 56:419-452. E. McGrattan (1987) The Macroeconomic Effects of Distortionary Taxation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33:573-601, for 1947-1992 Columns: (1) Year (2) Marginal tax on capital (McGrattan) (3) Marginal tax on labor (McGrattan) (4) AGI-weighted Avg. Marginal Tax Rate (BS Table 2, Column 1) (5) Combined AGI-weighted Avg. Marginal Tax Rate (BS Table 2, Column 6) (6) Marginal tax on capital (Joines-MTRK1) (7) Marginal tax on capital (Joines-MTRK2) (8) Marginal tax on capital (Joines-MTRK3) (9) Marginal tax on capital (Joines-MTRK4) (10) Marginal tax on labor (Joines-MTRL1) (11) Marginal tax on labor (Joines-MTRL2) (12) Marginal tax on labor (Joines-MTRL3) (13) Marginal tax on labor (Joines-MTRL4) nfhr_us.dat Sources: J.W. Kendrick (1961) Output, Inputs, and Productivity ratios, 1869-1957 (1929=100) Table B-I: Farm segment, pp. 362-4 Table C-II: Mining, pp. 397-8 Table D-II: Manufacturing, pp. 465-6 Table G-II: Transportation, pp. 541-2 Table H-II: Communications and Public Utilities, pp. 581-2 Table A-XI: 1929 levels, p. 314 Columns: (1) Year (2) Manhours - farm segment (1929=100) * 254.74 (3) Manhours - mining (1929=100) * 23.13 (4) Manhours - manufacturing (1929=100) * 242.90 (5) Manhours - transportation (1929=100) * 79.49 (6) Manhours - communications (1929=100) * 25.17 ninc_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 1.14. National Income by Type of Income: Annually 1929-1982 (billions of dollars), pp. 46-8 for columns (2)-(9) and pp. 31-2 for column (10). Columns: (1) Year (2) National Income (3) Compensation of employees (4) Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (5) Rental income with capital consumption adjustment (6) Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (7) Corporate profits before tax (8) Corporate tax liability (9) Net interest (10) Addendum: Net national product nipn_us.dat Sources: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 1.1. Gross National Product Annually, 1929-82 (billions of dollars), pp. 1-2 for columns (2)-(7) Table 1.2. Gross National Product Annually, 1929-82 (billions of 1982 dollars), pp. 6-7 for column (8) Table 7.4. Implicit Price Deflator for GNP, 1929-82, (1982=100), pp. 327-8 for column (9). C.D. Romer (1989) Table 2. New Estimates of GNP 1869-1929, pp. 22-3. J.W. Kendrick (1961) Table A-IIb. GNP, Commerce Concept, Derivation from Kuznets Estimates, 1869-1929, pp. 296-297 (millions of current $) Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 Series F1-5. Gross National Product for 1869-1878 and 1879-1888 decade averages, p. 224 for column (7). Columns: (1) Year (2) Personal Consumption Expenditure (3) Fixed Investment (4) Change in Business Inventories (5) Net Exports of Goods and Services (6) Government Purchases of Goods and Services (7) Gross National Product (8) Gross National Product (1982 $) (9) GNP Price Deflator (1982=100) NOTE: Prior to 1929, components of GNP are found by using Kendrick's fractions of GNP multiplied by Romer's nominal GNP series. nipr_us.dat Sources: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 1.2. Gross National Product Annually, 1929-82 (billions of 1982 dollars), pp. 6-7 for columns (2)-(7) Table 7.4. Implicit Price Deflator for GNP, 1929-82, (1982=100), pp. 327-8 for column (8). C.D. Romer (1989) Table 2. New Estimates of GNP 1869-1929, pp. 22-3. J.W. Kendrick (1961) Table A-IIa. GNP, Commerce Concept, Derivation from Kuznets Estimates, 1869-1957, pp. 293-295 (millions of 1929 $) Columns: (1) Year (2) Personal Consumption Expenditure (3) Fixed Investment (4) Change in Business Inventories (5) Net Exports of Goods and Services (6) Government Purchases of Goods and Services (7) Gross National Product (8) GNP Price Deflator (1982=100) NOTE: Prior to 1929, components of GNP are found by using Kendrick's fractions of GNP multiplied by Romer's real GNP series. popu_us.dat Sources: Historical Statistics of the US, Colonial to 1970 Series A6-8. Annual Population Estimates for the US: 1790-1970 (in thousands) p. 8 for columns (2)-(4). Series A39. Annual Estimates of the Population, by Age: 1790-1970 (in thousands) p. 10 for column (5). Economic Report of the President 2001 Table B-34. Population by age group, 1929-00 (thousands), p. 321 for columns (3) and (5), 1970-00. Columns: (1) Year (2) Total resident population (3) Total including Armed Forces Overseas (4) Total civilian resident population (5) Total population, 16 and over NOTES: (2)-(5) 1959 is first year with Alaska & Hawaii For (5), 1900-1916,1920-1939 is resident population; 1940-1970 is total population including Armed Forces overseas; 1917-1919 is total population found by adding the difference between columns (3) and (2) to the resident population reported in A39. prop_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Tables 6.14A,B. Nonfarm Propreitors' Income by Industry: Annually 1929-1982 (millions of dollars), p. 291. for columns (2)-(11) and Table 1.14. National Income by Type of Income: Annually 1929-1982 (millions of dollars), pp. 46-48 for column (12) Columns: (1) Year (2) Nonfarm propreitors' Income (3) ___ Agriculture, forestry, fisheries (4) ___ Mining (5) ___ Construction (6) ___ Manufacturing (7) ___ Transportation and public utilities (8) ___ Wholesale trade (9) ___ Retail trade (10) ___ Finance, insurance, and real estate (11) ___ Services (12) Farm propreitor's income with inventory valuation adjustment NOTES: 1929-1948 and 1949-1982 have different SIC classifications. spur_us.dat Sources: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Table 3.7A. Government Purchases of Goods and Services by Type: Annually 1929-1982 (billions of dollars), p. 152, for column (2). Tables 3.8A. (billions of 1982 dollars), p. 156 for (3). Columns: (1) Year (2) State & Local - Compensation of employees (3) State & Local - Compensation of employees 1982$ wind_us.dat Source: Nat'l Inc. and Prod. Accts. of the US, 1929-82 (1986) Tables 6.5A,B. Wages and Salaries by Industry: Annually 1929-1982 (millions of dollars), pp. 265-9. Columns: (1) Year (2) Compenstion of employees (3) _ Domestic industries (4) __ Private industries (5) ___ Agriculture, forestry, fisheries (6) ___ Mining (7) ___ Construction (8) ___ Manufacturing (9) ___ Transportation and public utilities (10) ___ Wholesale trade (11) ___ Retail trade (12) ___ Finance, insurance, and real estate (13) ___ Services (14) __ Government and government enterprises (15) ___ Federal government enterprises (16) ___ State & Local government enterprises (17) ___ Military (18) _ Rest of World NOTES: 1929-1948 and 1949-1982 have different SIC classifications. 1948 using the second classification is: 1948 135537 135451 116444 3304 3372 7252 47145 13587 9303 14682 4921 12878 19007 86 _______________________________________________________________________________ REFERENCES: Kendrick, John W. 1961. Productivity Trends in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Kendrick, John W. 1973. Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, 1948-1969. New York, NY: National Bureau of Economic Research. Romer, Christina D. 1989. The prewar business cycle reconsidered: New estimates of gross national product, 1869-1908. Journal of Political Economy 97:1-37. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1973. Long Term Economic Growth 1860-1970, Supplement to Survey of Current Business. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1986. The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1987. Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the U.S., 1925-85. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Various. Survey of Current Business. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Economic Report of the President. 2001. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Ellen McGrattan February 2006